EVALUATION OF PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS IN PRECIPITATION MODELS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST1

ABSTRACT: Recent work has found that a one-parameter Weibull model of wet day precipitation amount based on the Weibull distribution provides a better fit to historical daily precipitation data for eastern U.S. sites than other one-parameter models. The general two-parameter Weibull distribution was compared in this study to other widely used distributions for describing the distribution of daily precipitation event sizes at 99 sites from the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Surprisingly little performance was sacrificed by reducing the two-parameter Weibull to a single-parameter distribution. Advantages of the single-parameter model included requiring only the mean wet day precipitation amount for calibration, invertibility for simulation purposes, and ease of analytical manipulation. The fit of the single-parameter Weibull to the 99 stations included in this study was significantly better than other single-parameter models tested, and performed as well as the widely endorsed, more cumbersome, two-parameter gamma model. Both the one-and two-parameter Weibull distributions are shown to have b-moments that are consistent with historical precipitation data, while the ratio of b-skew and b-variance in the gamma model is inconsistent with the historical recerd by this measure. In addition, it was found that the two-parameter gamma distribution was better fit using the method of moments estimators than maximum likelihood estimates. These findings suggested that the distribution in precipitation among sites in the Pacific Northwest with dramatically different settings are nearly identical if expressed in proportion to the mean site event size.     

Monitoring and management of streambank erosion and natural revegetation on the lower Gordon River,Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area,Australia

The wash from high-speed tourist cruise launches causes erosion of the formerly stable banks of the lower Gordon River within the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area. Speed and access restrictions on the operation of commercial cruise vessels have considerably slowed, but not halted erosion, which continues on the now destabilized banks. To assess the effectiveness of restrictions, bank erosion and natural revegetation are monitored at 48 sites using erosion pins, survey transects, and vegetation quadrats. The subjectively chosen sites are grouped on the basis of geomorphology and bank materials. The mean measured rate of erosion of estuarine banks slowed from 210 to 19 mm/year with the introduction of a 9 knot speed limit. In areas where cruise vessels continue to operate, alluvial banks were eroded at a mean rate of 11 mm/yr during the three-year period of the current management regime. Very similar alluvial banks no longer subject to commercial cruise boat traffic eroded at the slower mean rate of 3 mm/yr. Sandy levee banks have retreated an estimated maximum 10 m during the last 10–15 years. The mean rate of bank retreat slowed from 112 to 13 mm/yr with the exclusion of cruise vessels from the leveed section of the river. Revegetation of the eroded banks is proceeding slowly; however, since the major bank colonizers are very slow growing tree species, it is likely to be decades until revegetation can contribute substantially to bank stability.     

DESIGN AND IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR DIVERSION AT COAL CREEK MINE1

A diversion system has been designed to carry the flow from East Fork of Coal Creek around the area proposed for mining at Thunder Basin Coal Company's (TBCC) Coal Creek mine in Campbell County, Wyoming. This paper describes the field and analysis procedures necessary to prepare the diversion design and impact evaluation, and the innovative concepts developed for the diversion system design to minimize impacts on downstream channel stability. Under the proposed diversion system design, water from the East Basin of Coal Creek will be diverted at two locations. At one location, flow will be impounded by a small dam and decanted by a pump through a pipeline into East Fork at the location of the second diversion. At this location, a training dike will be placed across the stream channel to divert flows into a diversion channel. Gravity flow along the diversion channel will deliver water to a playa area which will be converted into a detention basin by placing a small dam across its southern end. Flows up to the magnitude of the 24-hour 2-year peak flow will be passed directly through the detention basin into Middle Fork with negligible attenuation of flow rates. For less frequent events, water will be stored in the detention basin in order to prevent velocities in Lower Middle Fork from exceeding the maximum permissible velocity above which scouring may occur. Evaporation and seepage losses from the diversion system were estimated to be small and should be more than offset by the addition of water from the playa drainage basin into the Coal Creek drainage. Velocities predicted for the Lower Middle Fork after-the diversion is constructed are expected to be low enough that significant erosion of the channel is not expected to occur.     

A Screening Procedure for Identifying Acid-Sensitive Lakes from Catchment Characteristics

Monitoring of Wilderness lakes for potential acidification requires information on lake sensitivity to acidification. Catchment properties can be used to estimate the acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) of lakes. Conceptual and general linear models were developed to predict the ANC of lakes in high-elevation (2170 m) Wilderness Areas in Californias Sierra Nevada mountains. Catchment-to-lake area ratio, lake perimeter-to-area ratio, bedrock lithology, vegetation cover, and lake headwater location are significant variables explaining ANC. The general linear models were validated against independently collected water chemistry data and were used as part of a first stage screen to identify Wilderness lakes with low ANC. Expanded monitoring of atmospheric deposition is essential for improving the predictability of lake ANC.     

Assessing the Ecological Footprint of a Large Metropolitan Water Supplier: Lessons for Water Management and Planning towards Sustainability

Faced with the task of communicating their combined social, environmental and economic impact, water service providers are seeking to report overall performance in an aggregated way. Such a methodology must be scientifically robust, easily communicated and allow benchmarking of performance while reflecting a transition towards sustainability. In this paper the ecological footprint (EF) is calculated for Sydney Water Corporation (SWC), using input-output analysis and land disturbance in an innovative approach that overcomes problems identified in the original EF concept. This pilot study has allowed SWC to gain some valuable insights into its impacts: SWC's annual EF is about 73 100 ha in terms of land disturbance. Of this, 54 000 ha are projected to become disturbed as a consequence of climate change, with the remainder of 19 100 ha being disturbed on SWC's premises (2400 ha) and on those of upstream suppliers (16 700 ha). Total on-site impacts equal 9300 ha, while indirect land disturb ance contributes 63 600 ha. The EF appears promising as an educational and communi cation tool and may have potential as a decision support tool. However, further research is needed to incorporate downstream impacts into the EF, which would have significant benefits to SWC in terms of assessing and communicating the organization's overall progress towards sustainability.     

Managing Watershed Externalities in India: Theory and Practice

Watershed development is the focus of poverty alleviation programs in rural India. Watershed projects aim to solve problems of externalities, but they also create their own externalities, which cause uneven distribution of costs and benefits that undermine project objectives and harm the poor. Numerous approaches exist to internalize externalities, including awareness creation, moral suasion, investment subsidies, regulatory limits and fines, indirect benefits, mergers, and recent innovations like payment for environmental services and cap and trade. These can be judged on several criteria; the best approach would solve the problem cost effectively and help or at least not hurt poor people. Watershed projects in India were examined to identify the approaches taken to internalize watershed externalities. Investment subsidies and indirect employment benefits are the least effective approaches theoretically, but they are the most commonly applied, most likely because they are easy to administer and bring popular short term gains. Some theoretically favorable approaches that have been used elsewhere, such as payment for environmental services, may not work as well in India due to high transaction costs. However, one key innovation that easily could be applied in India is to make investment subsidies contingent on performance. Legal support and property rights reform would be needed for other favorable approaches.     

Manipulation of dietary protein and nonstarch polysaccharide to control swine manure emissions

Odor and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from stored pig (Sus scrofa) manure were monitored for response to changes in the crude protein level (168 or 139 g kg(-1), as-fed basis) and nonstarch polysaccharide (NSP) content [i.e., control, or modified with beet pulp (Beta vulgaris L.), cornstarch, or xylanase] of diets fed to pigs in a production setting. Each diet was fed to one of eight pens of pigs according to a 2 x 4, full-factorial design, replicated over three time blocks with different groups of animals and random assignment of diets. Manure from each treatment was characterized and stored in a separate, ventilated, 200-L vessel. Repeated measurements of odor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from the vessels were taken every two weeks for eight weeks. Manure from high-protein diets had higher sulfur concentration and pH (P < or = 0.05). High-NSP (beet pulp) diets resulted in lower manure nitrogen and ammonia concentrations and pH (P < or = 0.05). Odor level and hedonic tone of exhaust air from the storage vessel headspaces were unaffected by the dietary treatments. Mean CO2 and CH4 emissions (1400 and 42 g d(-1) m(-3) manure, respectively) increased with lower dietary protein (P < or = 0.05). The addition of xylanase to high-protein diets caused a decrease in manure CO2 emissions, but an increase when added to low-protein diets (P < or = 0.05). Nitrous oxide emissions were negligible. Contrary to other studies, these results do not support the use of dietary protein reduction to reduce emissions from stored swine manure.     

Learning to recognize novel predators under weakly acidic conditions: the effects of reduced pH on acquired predator recognition by juvenile rainbow trout

Summary. Recent studies have demonstrated that under weakly acidic conditions (pH 6.0), many prey fishes, including juvenile rainbow trout (Onchorhynchus mykiss), do not exhibit overt antipredator responses to conspecific chemical alarm cues. In laboratory trials, we investigated the potential effects of reduced pH on the ability of hatchery reared, predator naïve juvenile rainbow trout to acquire the recognition of a novel predator (yellow perch, Perca flavenscens). Initially, we exposed trout to the odour of a predatory yellow perch, buffered to pH 6.0 (weakly acidic) or pH 7.0 (neutral) paired with conspecific skin extracts (also buffered to pH 6.0 or 7.0) or a distilled water control. Juvenile trout exhibited significant increase in antipredator behaviour when exposed to neutral skin extract (pH 7.0). When retested 48 hours later to perch odour alone (pH 7.0), only trout initially conditioned with neutral skin extracts (pairs with either neutral or acidic perch odour) exhibited a learned recognition of perch odour as a predator risk. Those initially exposed to weakly acidic skin extract or the distilled water control did not show a learned response to predator odour. These results demonstrate that the ability to acquire the recognition of novel predators is impaired under weakly acidic conditions, as would occur in natural waterways affected by acidic precipitation.     

Disturbance cues in freshwater prey fishes: do juvenile convict cichlids and rainbow trout respond to ammonium as an ‘early warning’ signal?

Summary.  Several freshwater invertebrate and vertebrate prey species rely on chemosensory cues, including non-injury released disturbance cues, to assess and avoid local predation threats. The prevailing hypothesis is that a pulse of ammonia released by disturbed or stressed prey functions as the disturbance cue. Here, we test this hypothesis in two phylogenetically distant freshwater prey fishes, convict cichlids and rainbow trout. In our first experiment, we measured NH₄ ⁺ concentration in tanks containing shoals of cichlid or trout before and after exposure to a realistic model predator (or left undisturbed). We failed to find an increase in ambient NH₄ ⁺ concentration for either cichlids or trout. In our second experiment, we exposed cichlids or trout to NH₄ ⁺ at 0.1 or 0.5 mg L⁻¹ (or a distilled water control) and measured the change in antipredator behaviour (time moving, foraging rate and area use). We found no consistent increase in antipredator behaviour in response to NH₄ ⁺. In our third study, we exposed cichlids and trout to the disturbance cues of cichlids or trout (versus the odour of undisturbed donors). We found significant increases in antipredator behaviour, regardless of donor species, for both cichlids and trout. Thus, the results of our first two experiments do not support the hypothesis that ammonium functions as a disturbance cue in prey fishes. However, the results of our final experiment do confirm the use of disturbance cues in convict cichlids and rainbow trout and support that hypothesis that the disturbance cue is indeed some generalized metabolic byproduct.