Thermal instability and runaway criteria: The dangers of disregarding dynamics

Two exemplary exothermic processes, synthesis of nitroglycerine in a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) and synthesis of the explosive RDX in a CSTR, are used to demonstrate the dangers of ignoring the system dynamics when defining criteria for thermal criticality or runaway. Stability analyses are necessary to prescribe such criteria, and for these systems prove the presence of dangerous oscillatory thermal instability which cannot be detected using the steady state thermal balances.     

Tracking acid mine-drainage in Southeast Arizona using GIS and sediment delivery models

This study investigates the application of models traditionally used to estimate erosion and sediment deposition to assess the potential risk of water quality impairment resulting from metal-bearing materials related to mining and mineralization. An integrated watershed analysis using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based tools was undertaken to examine erosion and sediment transport characteristics within the watersheds. Estimates of stream deposits of sediment from mine tailings were related to the chemistry of surface water to assess the effectiveness of the methodology to assess the risk of acid mine-drainage being dispersed downstream of abandoned tailings and waste rock piles. A watershed analysis was preformed in the Patagonia Mountains in southeastern Arizona which has seen substantial mining and where recent water quality samples have reported acidic surface waters. This research demonstrates an improvement of the ability to predict streams that are likely to have severely degraded water quality as a result of past mining activities.     

Co-treatment of acid mine drainage with municipal wastewater: performance evaluation

Co-treatment of acid mine drainage (AMD) with municipal wastewater (MWW) using the activated sludge process is a novel treatment technology offering potential savings over alternative systems in materials, proprietary chemicals and energy inputs. The impacts of AMD on laboratory-scale activated sludge units (plug-flow and sequencing batch reactors) treating synthetic MWW were investigated. Synthetic AMD containing Al, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, Zn and SO₄ at a range of concentrations and pH values was formulated to simulate three possible co-treatment processes, i.e., (1) adding raw AMD to the activated sludge aeration tank, (2) pre-treating AMD prior to adding to the aeration tank by mixing with digested sludge and (3) pre-treating AMD by mixing with screened MWW. Continuous AMD loading to the activated sludge reactors during co-treatment did not cause a significant decrease in chemical oxygen demand (COD), 5-day biochemical oxygen demand, or total organic carbon removal; average COD removal rates ranged from 87–93 %. Enhanced phosphate removal was observed in reactors loaded with Fe- and Al-rich AMD, with final effluent TP concentrations <2 mg/L. Removal rates for dissolved Al, Cu, Fe and Pb were 52–84 %, 47–61 %, 74–86 % and 100 %, respectively, in both systems. Manganese and Zn removal were strongly linked to acidity; removal from net-acidic AMD was <10 % for both metals, whereas removal from circum-neutral AMD averaged 93–95 % for Mn and 58–90 % for Zn. Pre-mixing with screened MWW was the best process option in terms of AMD neutralization and metal removal. However, significant MWW alkalinity was consumed, suggesting an alkali supplement may be necessary.     

Foraging and homing behaviour in the high-shore, crevice-dwelling limpet Helcion pectunculus (Prosobranchia: Patellidae)

The foraging activity of the high-shore, crevice-dwelling limpet Helcion pectunculus (Gmelin, 1791) (Prosobranchia: Patellidae) from an exposed shore on the eastern Cape coast of South Africa was monitored. Activity was compared during spring and neap tides and between spring, summer, autumn and winter. Rhythms of activity in this limpet varied depending upon microhabitat; individuals inhabiting both east- and west-facing rock surfaces were active during nocturnal low tides, but limpets on west-facing rock surfaces were also active during daytime low tides, whilst in the shade. Individuals travelled further during foraging excursions in winter (xˉ=85.53 cm) than in either spring (xˉ=55.7 cm) or summer (xˉ=48.8 cm) and also during spring low tides (xˉ=89.8 cm) compared with neaps (xˉ=40.9 cm). H. pectunculus exhibited rigid homing to a fixed scar within a crevice, and feeding excursions were found to consist of three distinct phases: a relatively rapid outward phase, a much slower foraging phase and a rapid homeward phase. Whether or not these limpets graze throughout an excursion is not known. Foraging was always highly directional, with a mean vector which took limpets onto an area of the rock face with the highest microalgal biomass. The fact that H. pectunculus took advantage of optimal feeding areas and memorized their location to enable return visits suggests a learning component in herbivorous gastropod foraging behaviour. Received: 29 December 1997 / Accepted: 8 May 1998     

The interplay between environmental conditions and allee effects during the recovery of stressed zooplankton communities

Many important ecological phenomena depend on the success or failure of small introduced populations. Several factors are thought to influence the fate of small populations, including resource and habitat availability, dispersal levels, interspecific interactions, mate limitation, and demographic stochasticity. Recent field studies suggest that Allee effects resulting from mate limitation can prevent the reestablishment of sexual zooplankton species following a disturbance. In this study, we explore the interplay between Allee effects and local environmental conditions in determining the population growth and establishment of two acid-sensitive zooplankton species that have been impacted by regional anthropogenic acidification. We conducted a factorial design field experiment to test the impact of pH and initial organism densities on the per capita population growth (r) of the sexual copepod Epischura lacustris and the seasonally parthenogenetic cladoceran Daphnia mendotae. In addition, we conducted computer simulations using r values obtained from our experiments to determine the probability of extinction for small populations of acid-sensitive colonists that are in the process of colonizing recovering lakes. The results of our field experiment demonstrated that local environmental conditions can moderate the impacts of Allee effects for E. lacustris: Populations introduced at low densities had a significantly lower r at pH 6 than at pH 7. In contrast, r did not differ between pH 6 and 7 environments when E. lacustris populations were introduced at high densities. D. mendotae was affected by pH levels, but not by initial organism densities. Results from our population growth simulations indicated that E. lacustris populations introduced at low densities to pH 6 conditions had a higher probability of extinction than those introduced at low densities to a pH 7 environment. Our study indicates that environmental conditions and mate limitation can interact to determine the fate of small populations of sexually reproducing zooplankton species. If a more rapid recovery of acid-damaged zooplankton communities is desired, augmentation of dispersal levels may be needed during the early phases of pH recovery in order to increase the probability of establishment for mate-limited zooplankton species.     

Multinomial mixture model with heterogeneous classification probabilities

Royle and Link (Ecology 86(9):2505?C2512, 2005) proposed an analytical method that allowed estimation of multinomial distribution parameters and classification probabilities from categorical data measured with error. While useful, we demonstrate algebraically and by simulations that this method yields biased multinomial parameter estimates when the probabilities of correct category classifications vary among sampling units. We address this shortcoming by treating these probabilities as logit-normal random variables within a Bayesian framework. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to compute Bayes estimates from a simulated sample from the posterior distribution. Based on simulations, this elaborated Royle-Link model yields nearly unbiased estimates of multinomial and correct classification probability estimates when classification probabilities are allowed to vary according to the normal distribution on the logit scale or according to the Beta distribution. The method is illustrated using categorical submersed aquatic vegetation data.     

Cytogenetic studies of amniotic fluid taken before the 15th week of pregnancy for earlier prenatal diagnosis: A report of 114 consecutive cases

One hundred and fourteen samples of amniotic fluid taken before 15 weeks of gestation were cultured for cytogenetic studies. The results of culturing these early amniotic fluid (EAF) samples were compared with the results of culturing 114 standard amniotic fluid (SAP) samples taken after 15 weeks of gestation matched for maternal age and received in the laboratory within the same week. Cell culture was successful in all 114 of the EAF samples and in 111 SAP samples. There was no significant difference in the days to harvesting and days to reporting in the two groups. Three samples of SAP failed to grow and two EAF samples produced tetraploid karyotypes, so that in these five cases amniocentesis had to be repeated. These problems were attributed to toxicity of a fungicide used in the culture medium. Pseudomosaicism was noted in two EAF samples and one SAP sample; and maternal cell contamination was noted in one EAF and one SAP sample. Thus, culturing and karyotyping cells harvested from EAF and SAP are similar, indicating that EAF samples from 12–14-week pregnancies could be used for prenatal diagnosis.     

Simultaneous-count models to estimate abundance from counts of unmarked individuals with imperfect detection

We developed a method to estimate population abundance from simultaneous counts of unmarked individuals over multiple sites. We considered that at each sampling occasion, individuals in a population could be detected at 1 of the survey sites or remain undetected and used either multinomial or binomial simultaneous-count models to estimate abundance, the latter being equivalent to an N-mixture model with one site. We tested model performance with simulations over a range of detection probabilities, population sizes, growth rates, number of years, sampling occasions, and sites. We then applied our method to 3 critically endangered vulture species in Cambodia to demonstrate the real-world applicability of the model and to provide the first abundance estimates for these species in Cambodia. Our new approach works best when existing methods are expected to perform poorly (i.e., few sites and large variation in abundance among sites) and if individuals may move among sites between sampling occasions. The approach performed better when there were >8 sampling occasions and net probability of detection was high (>0.5). We believe our approach will be useful in particular for simultaneous surveys at aggregation sites, such as roosts. The method complements existing approaches for estimating abundance of unmarked individuals and is the first method designed specifically for simultaneous counts.     

Temporal genetic variation in populations of the limpet Cellana grata from Hong Kong shores

Variations in the relative contributions of gene flow and spatial and temporal variation in recruitment are considered the major determinants of population genetic structure in marine organisms. Such variation can be assessed through repeated measures of the genetic structure of a species over time. To test the relative importance of these two phenomena, temporal variation in genetic composition was measured in the limpet Cellana grata, among four annual cohorts over 10 years at four rocky shores in Hong Kong. A total of 408 limpets, comprising individuals from 1998, 1999, 2006 and 2007 cohorts were screened for genetic variation using five microsatellite loci. Minor but significant genetic differentiation was detected among samples from the 1998/1999 collection (F _ST = 0.0023), but there was no significant differentiation among the 2006/2007 collection (F _ST = 0.0008). Partitioning of genetic variation among shores was also significant in 1998/1999 but not in the 2006/2007 collection, although there was no correlation between genetic and geographic distances. There was no significant difference between collections made in 1998/1999 and 2006/2007. This lack of clear structure implies a high level of gene flow, but differentiation with time may be the result of stochastic recruitment variation among shores. Estimates of effective population size were not high (599, 95% C.L. 352–11397), suggesting the potential susceptibility of the populations to genetic drift, although a significant bottleneck effect was not detected. These findings indicate that genetic structuring between populations of C. grata in space and time may result from spatio-temporal variation in recruitment, but the potential development of biologically significant differentiation is suppressed by a lack of consistency in recruitment variability and high connectivity among shores.