Applying Fuzzy Logic to Assess Human Perception in Relation to Conservation Plan Efficiency Measures Within a Biosphere Reserve

The objective of this study is to present an efficiency-perception impact assessment based upon the integration of fuzzy logic (FL) of the "Productive Reconversion" conservation program (PRP) instituted by the Mexican government, in the upper Gulf of California and the Colorado Delta Biosphere Reserve. This approach enables environmental analysts to deal with the intrinsic imprecision and ambiguity associated with people's judgments and conclusions. The application of FL to the assessment of program efficiency is illustrated in this work, demonstrating how subjective perceptions can be converted into quantitative values easy to evaluate during the decision-making process.     

Assessing the micro-phytoplankton response to nitrate in Comau Fjord (42°S) in Patagonia (Chile), using a microcosms approach

Anthropogenic (aquaculture) changes in environment nutrient concentrations may affect phytoplankton (biomass and taxa composition) in marine coastal waters off the Chilean Patagonia. The effects of adding nitrate (NO₃ ^?) to natural phytoplankton assemblages were evaluated considering biomass, cell abundance, and taxonomic composition. Microcosm experiments were performed in the spring, summer, and winter in the Comau Fjord located in Subantarctic Patagonia. At the end of the experiments, NO₃ ^? decreased rapidly and was undetectable in treatments, indicating a strong NO₃ ^? deficiency associated with an exponential increase in Chl-a concentrations, particulate organic nitrogen, and carbon in these treatments. Moreover, given the depleted nitrate concentrations of the spring and summer experiments, the micro-phytoplankton taxa structure shifted from mixed diatom and dinoflagellate assemblages (Ceratium spp., Dinophysis spp., Coscinodiscus sp., Rhizosolenia pungens) to assemblages dominated by blooms of the classic chain-forming diatoms found in temperate and cold waters such as Chaetoceros spp., Skeletonema spp., and Thalassiosira spp. Thus, nitrogen sources (i.e., nitrate, ammonia) may influence phytoplankton abundance and biomass accumulation dynamics in the northern section of Patagonia. It also emphasizes the importance of diatom taxa in regards to the short-term response of phytoplankton to changing environmental nutrient conditions due to natural (decreasing freshwater stream flow) and anthropogenic (aquaculture) events. This situation may be one of the future scenarios in the Patagonian fjords, thus stressing the needs for active environmental monitoring and impact assessment.     

Carbon monoxide concentrations in Santiago City at street levels and their vertical gradient

Carbon monoxide concentrations were measured at ground level (1 m) near heavy traffic streets in downtown Santiago de Chile in periods of low (November and December), intermediate (April) and high (May) ambient concentrations. Also, measurements were carried out at several heights (from 1 to 127 m) in Santiago’s main street during winter time. Measurements carried out at ground level show maximum values during the morning rush hour, with values considerably higher than those reported by the urban air quality network, particularly in summer time. However, the measured values are below air quality standards. Vertical CO profiles were measured in a tower located in the center of downtown. Below 40 m (average altitude of neighboring buildings), the profiles do not show a consistent vertical gradient, with CO concentrations increasing or decreasing with height, regardless of atmospheric stability. In this low altitude range, the observed vertical profiles are poorly predicted by a street canyon model, and the measured concentrations can not be described by a simple exponential decay. At higher altitudes (40 and 127 m) a negative gradient in CO concentrations is observed, both for stable and unstable atmospheric conditions. The values of CO measured at 127 m are relatively well described by an Eulerian dispersion model running with current CO emission inventories for Santiago, although this model tends to predict stepper CO gradients than the observed ones.     

Geochemical evidence for the origin of vanadium in an urban environment

The city of Salamanca in central Mexico is surrounded by heavy industry, i.e., a refinery, a thermoelectric plant and chemical industries. Variable concentrations of vanadium (V) have been reported in the groundwater, and their presence has been related to particulates so this hypothesis was tested by sampling soil in the urban area and the surrounding uncontaminated country site. The 0-10-cm soil layer in the industrial and rural area was analyzed for V and other metal trace elements found in hydrocarbons, i.e., chromium (Cr), lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), and nickel (Ni). The concentrations of V were higher in the urban rather than in the rural soil, reaching values of >600 mg kg(-1) in the urban soils. In the rural area, V in the soil was related to regional geology, i.e., volcanic rocks such as basalts and rhyolites but not in the urban area where it was related to particulate distribution mostly emitted from the industries burning fuel oil number 6.     

Temporal mangrove dynamics in relation to coastal development in Pacific Panama

This study assessed the changes in extent of fringing mangrove located in Punta Mala Bay, Panama in relation to coastal development over a period of two decades. Punta Mala Bay was chosen for this study, due to its social importance and its biological significance, as it is one of the few mangrove areas left around Panama City. Fieldwork confirmed the importance of Laguncularia racemosa in the bay, which formed nearly monospecific stands with a large number of seedlings indicating that the forest was rejuvenating. The mangrove was mapped from 1980 to 2002 using digitised aerial photographs and a GIS was used to determine the location and rates of mangrove growth and loss before and after the construction of a road and water treatment works in 1998. The land use maps were produced with an overall accuracy of 83.8%. The user's accuracy of the maps for L. racemosa dominated stands was 89.7%, although the producer's accuracy was lower due to the omission of seedlings on intertidal areas. It was found that the mangrove was spatially dynamic and had grown substantially in the bay at a rate ranging from 6 to 215% per year until the construction commenced. Between 1997 and 2002 there were 100% loss of mangrove in some areas due to the coastal development. The resilience of the dominant species L. racemosa at this locality was shown by the continued growth of two mangrove zones during the construction period 1997-2002, with one zone increasing in area by 61%. The pioneering ability of L. racemosa after disturbance was demonstrated by the development of two new mangrove zones of 498 and 1254 m2 on bare intertidal areas after construction finished. Future mapping and fieldwork could provide information on the development of mangrove communities and their response to reoccurring human impacts.     

Using system dynamics to model water-reallocation

Improving the efficiency of water allocation has long been recognised as a key problem for the water resources management decision-makers. However, assessing the efficacy of management decision is difficult due to the complexity and interconnectivity of water resource systems. For this reason, it is vital that robust modelling approaches are employed to deal with the feedback loops inherent in the water resource systems. Whilst many studies have applied modelling to various aspects of water resource management, little attention has been given to innovations in modelling approaches to deal with the modelling challenges associated with improving decision-making. The aim of this study is to apply a System Dynamics modelling approach to improve the efficiency of water allocation incorporating a myriad of irrigation system constraints. The system dynamic approach allows the different system components to be organised as a collection of discrete objects that incorporate data, structure and function to generate complex system behaviour. Through the application of a system dynamic approach, a robust model (named the Economical Reallocating Water Model (ERWM)) was developed which was used to examine the options of re-allocating water resources that minimize the water cost all over an irrigated agricultural area. The EWRM incorporated a wide range of complexities likely to be encountered in water resource management: surface and ground water sources, water trading between sources, system constraint such as maximum ground water pumping, rates, maximum possible trading volumes and differential water resource prices. Two hypothetical systems have been presented here as an example. The results show that the System Dynamics approach has a significant advantages in estimating and assessing the outcomes of alternative water management strategies through time and space.     

A paradigm for ecological risk assessment

The 1983 National Academy of Sciences paradigm for conducting human health risk assessment is considered with respect to ecological risk assessment. This four-step paradigm fails to capture key intrinsic differences between the two types of analysis, specifically: identity of risk targets and receptors; identity of the appropriate level of ecological organization at which the risk is expressed; variability of endpoint with respect to risk receptor; and the existence ofrisk cascades through ecological feedback loops. We propose an alternative paradigm that includes a preliminary step,receptor identification, in which chemical partitioning is combined with a conceptual model of the ecosystem to identify appropriate risk targets. In addition, we propose formal inclusion ofendpoint identification and explicit consideration of risk cascades in arelationship assessment in which interactive feedback loops are considered in an iterative process. The proposed paradigm preserves the steps of hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment (renamedresponse assessment) and risk characterization, although specific modifications are recommended.     

Prenatal diagnosis of a craniopharyngioma using ultrasonography and magnetic resonance imaging

We report an infant with a craniopharyngioma which was detected in utero. Maternal uterine ultrasonography, done at 27 weeks because of polyhydramnios, revealed a 4 cm midline mass near the base of the fetal skull. At 31 weeks, magnetic resonance imaging of the maternal abdomen confirmed the presence of a mass in the region of the third ventricle and revealed hydrocephalus. Two days post-partum a computed tomography (CT)-guided needle biopsy of the mass was performed and recovered tissue which was histologically consistent with a craniopharyngioma. The infant' s postnatal period was complicated by seizures, which were treated with phenobarbital, and by progressive hydrocephalus, necessitating placement of a ventriculo-peritoneal shunt. He also received therapy for central hypothyroidism and diabetes insipidus. The infant' s parents refused permission for attempted resection of the tumour and he died at 8 weeks of age. This represents the second reported case of an antenatally detected craniopharyngioma. Four other cases of different intracranial tumours have been detected in utero using ultrasound, with no reported survivors past 3 days of age. There is a uniformly poor prognosis of such infants, but earlier diagnosis and intervention may change this result.