Evaluation of a real-time monitoring system for river quality — a trade-off between risk attitudes,costs, and uncertainty

Uncertainty is definitely one of the key topics in environmental assessment and management. Typically, attempts to reduce uncertainty are subject to expenses. But how to compare and trade-off expenses and the reduced uncertainty? They only seldom allow the use of a single unit. Instead, the whole analysis and decision procedure is very subjective. This paper presents one approach to handle such problems, namely the combined use of Bayesian influence diagrams, and probabilistic risk attitude analysis. The approach was used in the evaluation of three alternatives for a real time river water quality forecasting system. A trade-off analysis of risk attitudes, costs and uncertainty indicated the levels of socioeconomic utility required for investments in the respective systems, and accordingly illuminated the impact of the uncertainties involved on inference and decision-making with various risk attitudes and discount rates.     

A historical study of mineral elements in forest plants from South Norway

Herbarium plants were used as a material to study possible long-term changes in mineral elements of forest plants. Plants from South Norway collected in the period 1870 to 1930 were compared to plants collected in 1982. Relative to mineral contents in plants from 1870 to 1930, the 1982 material showed elevated levels of Zn, Cd, Rb, K, Mn and Ti and decreased levels of Sr, B, Ca and Mo in some of the plant species analysed. Most of these differences may be explained by changes in the environmental conditions, due to differences in chemical composition of precipitation, accelerated soil acidification and subsequent increasing mineral weathering. Consequently analysis of herbarium plants seems to provide valuable information about preindustrial levels of mineral elements and seems to detect changes in mineral elements brought about by recent anthropogenic activity.     

Development of an ombrotrophic peat bog (low ash) reference material for the determination of elemental concentrations

Given the increasing interest in using peat bogs as archives of atmospheric metal deposition, the lack of validated sample preparation methods and suitable certified reference materials has hindered not only the quality assurance of the generated analytical data but also the interpretation and comparison of peat core metal profiles from different laboratories in the international community. Reference materials play an important role in the evaluation of the accuracy of analytical results and are essential parts of good laboratory practice. An ombrotrophic peat bog reference material has been developed by 14 laboratories from nine countries in an inter-laboratory comparison between February and October 2002. The material has been characterised for both acid-extractable and total concentrations of a range of elements, including Al, As, Ca, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, P, Pb, Ti, V and Zn. The steps involved in the production of the reference material (i.e. collection and preparation, homogeneity and stability studies, and certification) are described in detail.     

Application of the benthic index of biotic integrity to environmental monitoring in Chesapeake Bay

The Chesapeake Bay benthic index of biotic integrity (B-IBI) was developed to assess benthic community health and environmental quality in Chesapeake Bay. The B-IBI provides Chesapeake Bay monitoring programs with a uniform tool with which to characterize bay-wide benthic community condition and assess the health of the Bay. A probability-based design permits unbiased annual estimates of areal degradation within the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries with quantifiable precision. However, of greatest interest to managers is the identification of problem areas most in need of restoration. Here we apply the B-IBI to benthic data collected in the Bay since 1994 to assess benthic community degradation by Chesapeake Bay Program segment and water depth. We used a new B-IBI classification system that improves the reliability of the estimates of degradation. Estimates were produced for 67 Chesapeake Bay Program segments. Greatest degradation was found in areas that are known to experience hypoxia or show toxic contamination, such as the mesohaline portion of the Potomac River, the Patapsco River, and the Maryland mainstem. Logistic regression models revealed increased probability of degraded benthos with depth for the lower Potomac River, Patapsco River, Nanticoke River, lower York River, and the Maryland mainstem. Our assessment of degradation by segment and water depth provided greater resolution of relative condition than previously available, and helped define the extent of degradation in Chesapeake Bay.     

Air pollution exposure monitoring and estimation. Part VI. Ambient exposure of adults in an industrialised region

This paper presents methodology and results of a dynamic individual air pollution exposure model (DINEX) that calculates the hourly exposure for each adult in a panel study. Each of over 260 participants, through the use of a diary, provided information used in the model to calculate his/her personal, individualised exposure. The participants filled out the diary daily, hour by hour, over two, two month periods. The exposure assessment model coupled the diary information and results of an indoor/outdoor measurement program, with the results of dispersion modelling on an hourly basis for an industrial area in Norway. The estimated air pollution concentrations from the dispersion model, based on continuous meteorological measurements, were calibrated with air pollutant concentrations measured continuously.     

Using environmental stressor information to predict the ecological status of Maryland non-tidal streams as measured by biological indicators

In Maryland, U.S., an interim framework has recentlybeen developed for using biologically based thresholds, or `biocriteria', to assess the health of nontidal streams statewide at watershed scales. The evaluation of impairment is based on indices of biological integrity from the Maryland Biological Stream Survey (MBSS). We applied logistic regression to quantify how the biotic integrity of streams at a local scale is affected by cumulative effects resulting from catchment land uses, point sources, and nearby transmission line rights-of-way. Indicators for land use were developed from the remote sensing National Land Cover Data and applied at different scales. We determined that the risk of local impairment in nontidal streams rapidly increases with increased urban land use in the catchment area. The average likelihood of failing biocriteria doubled with every 10% points increment in urban land, thus an increase in urban land use from 0 to 20% quadruples the risk of impairment. For the basins evaluated in this study, catchments with more than 40–50% urban land use had greater than 80% probability of failing biocriteria, on average. Inclusion of rights-of-way and point sources in the model did not significantly improve the fit for this data set, most likely because of their low numbers. The overall results indicate that our predictive modeling approach can help pinpoint stream ecosystems experiencing or vulnerable to degradation.     

Prenatal investigation of a 45,X/46,X,r(?) karyotype in amniocytes using fluorescence in situ hybridization with an X-centromeric probe

The karyotype of cultured amniotic fluid cells obtained on the indication of advanced maternal age was shown to be a mosaic 45,X/46,X,r(?). The small size and banding pattern made it difficult to determine whether the ring was derived from and X or a Y chromosome, or even from an autosome. By using an X-centromeric probe and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), we demonstrated the ring to have an X centromere. Thus, a more complete genetic counselling was possible. This confirms the usefulness of FISH in identifying and characterizing this and other chromosome rearrangements in prenatal diagnosis.