Assessment of uncertainties in expert knowledge, illustrated in fuzzy rule-based models

The coherence between different aspects in the environmental system leads to a demand for comprehensive models of this system to explore the effects of different management alternatives. Fuzzy logic has been suggested as a means to extend the application domain of environmental modelling from physical relations to expert knowledge. In such applications the expert describes the system in terms of fuzzy variables and inference rules. The result of the fuzzy reasoning process is a numerical output value. In such a model, as in any other, the model context, structure, technical aspects, parameters and inputs may contribute uncertainties to the model output. Analysis of these contributions in a simplified model for agriculture suitability shows how important information about the accuracy of the expert knowledge in relation to the other uncertainties can be provided. A method for the extensive assessment of uncertainties in compositional fuzzy rule-based models is proposed, combining the evaluation of model structure, input and parameter uncertainties. In an example model, each of these three appear to have the potential to dominate aggregated uncertainty, supporting the relevance of an ample uncertainty approach.     

FLOOD MANAGEMENT IN THE LOWER INCOMATI RIVER BASIN,MOZAMBIQUE: TWO ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to compare two views of flood management and thus add to the present thinking of living with floods as opposed to the traditional approach of flood control. The traditional pathway has widely been adopted in developed countries and aims to control floodwaters by means of dams and dikes. The alternative pathway tends towards a policy whereby society lives with the floods by being prepared and having the right damage reduction measures in place. In this paper two pathways are tentatively compared for the Lower Incomati Basin, Mozambique. In the design cultural theory is considered, as is how the design of each path may look according to different management perspectives. The Lower Incomati Basin provides an interesting case study as it is in a relatively undeveloped state. Hence, it is an ideal area for conducting research into the application of alternative flood management strategies. The preliminary results suggest that both pathways are feasible. However, considering recent hydrological extremes such as the 2000 floods, the resilient pathway may ultimately be a more appealing flood management strategy.     

Trophic transfer of persistent organochlorine contaminants (OCs) within an Arctic marine food web from the southern Beaufort-Chukchi Seas

Stable isotope values (13C, 15N) and concentrations of persistent organochlorine contaminants (OCs) were determined to evaluate the near-shore marine trophic status of biota and biomagnification of OCs from the southern Beaufort-Chukchi Seas (1999-2000) near Barrow, AK. The biota examined included zooplankton (Calanus spp.), fish species such as arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus), pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha), and fourhorn sculpin (Myoxocephalus quadricornis), along with marine mammals, including bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus), beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas), ringed seals (Phoca hispida) and bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus). The isotopically derived trophic position of biota from the Beaufort-Chukchi Seas marine food web, avian fauna excluded, is similar to other coastal food webs in the Arctic. Concentrations of OCs in marine mammals were significantly greater than in fish and corresponded with determined trophic level. In general, OCs with the greatest food web magnification factors (FWMFs) were those either formed due to biotransformation (e.g. p,p'-DDE, oxychlordane) or considered recalcitrant (e.g. -HCH, 2,4,5-Cl substituted PCBs) in most biota, whereas concentrations of OCs that are considered to be readily eliminated (e.g. -HCH) did not correlate with trophic level. Differences in physical-chemical properties of OCs, feeding strategy and possible biotransformation were reflected in the variable biomagnification between fish and marine mammals. The FWMFs in the Beaufort-Chukchi Seas region were consistent with reported values in the Canadian Arctic and temperate food webs, but were statistically different than FWMFs from the Barents and White Seas, indicating that the spatial variability of OC contamination in top-level marine Arctic predators is attributed to differences in regional sources of contamination rather than trophic position.     

Profile of persistent chlorinated contaminants,including selected chiral compounds,in wolverine (Gulo gulo) livers from the Canadian Arctic

Wolverines (Gulo gulo) are circumpolar omnivores that live throughout the alpine and arctic tundra ecosystem. Wolverine livers were collected at Kugluktuk (Coppermine), NU (n=12) in the western Canadian Arctic to report, for the first time, the residue patterns of persistent organochlorine contaminants (OCs) in this species. The enantiomer fractions (EFs) of several chiral OCs, including PCB atropisomers, in wolverines were also determined. Results were compared to OC concentrations and EFs of chiral contaminants in arctic fox (Alopex lagopus) from Ulukhaqtuuq (Holman), NT (n=20); a closely related species that scavenges the marine and terrestrial arctic environment. The rank order of hepatic concentrations for sum ( summation operator ) OC groups in wolverines were polychlorinated biphenyls ( summation operator PCB)>chlordane-related components ( summation operator CHLOR)>DDT-related compounds ( summation operator DDT)>hexachlorocyclohexane isomers ( summation operator HCHs). The most abundant OC analytes detected in wolverine liver were PCB-153, PCB-180, and oxychlordane (OXY). Wolverine age and gender did not influence OC concentrations, which were comparable to lipid-normalized values in arctic fox. The EFs of several chiral OCs (alpha-HCH, cis- and trans-chlordane, OXY, heptachlor exo-epoxide) and PCB atropisomers (PCB-136, 149) were nonracemic in arctic fox and wolverine liver and similar to those previously calculated in arctic fox and polar bears from Iceland and the Canadian Arctic. Results suggest that these species have similar ability to biotransform OCs. As well, contaminant profiles suggest that terrestrial mammals do not represent the major source of OC exposure to wolverines and that wolverines are scavenging more contaminated prey items, such as marine mammals. While summation operator PCB did not exceed the concentrations associated with mammalian reproductive impairment, future research is required to properly evaluate the potential affect of other OCs on the overall health of wolverines.     

Integrated Models of Fisheries Management and Policy

An overview of the structure and elements of integrated models aimed at studying fishery management policies using static and dynamic optimisation techniques is presented. Continuous and discrete time models are considered under both open-access and sole-owner settings. A variety of economic and biological processes that affect the fishery as a whole is examined. It turns out that overseeing important fish population characteristics such as metapopulation dynamics and multi-species interaction can lead to serious misrepresentation of the fishery and suboptimal controls. Adequate understanding of the economic conditions and considerations potentially affecting the fishermen is necessary to model their behaviour and address their concerns. Misrepresentation of these economic and biologic processes will have an impact on the success of management policies in attaining a sustainable fish population.     

Review of concentrations and chemistry of trichloroacetate in the environment

This paper reviews the concentrations of trichloroacetate (TCA) in the atmosphere-plant-soil system. Data originate mainly from Europe. The median TCA concentration in rainwater and canopy drip decreased until 1995. From then the median TCA concentration in rainwater remains rather constant while for canopy drip later data are not available. The same seems to hold for concentrations in air although a very limited data set is available. The median concentrations in coniferous needles and groundwater are constant for the period observed. The median TCA concentrations in soil decreased until 1992 and then remained constant.The TCA formation from chlorinated solvents in the atmosphere may explain a substantial percentage of the TCA amount in the atmosphere. The TCA concentrations in rainwater and canopy drip indicate that there will be other sources contributing to 10-50%. Waste incineration, biomass burning and natural formation in the marine boundary layer are potential candidate sources of TCA, but nothing can be said as yet on their TCA emission rates. Anthropogenic emissions of chlorine could also be a source.TCA can be formed from chlorinated solvents by biota. However, for coniferous trees the uptake of TCA from soil may be the predominant route. Biotic and abiotic reactions can cause to formation of TCA in soil, but also formation of TCA from chlorinated solvents by biota that excrete TCA, may contribute. Mass balance calculations of the bioactive soil top layer show that the production rate of TCA in certain soil types could be substantial. The mass balance calculations could not distinguish between natural and anthropogenic sources in soil.     

Quantitative threat analysis for management of an imperiled species: Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha).

Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) have declined dramatically across the Pacific Northwest because of multiple human impacts colloquially characterized as the four "H's": habitat degradation, harvest, hydroelectric and other dams, and hatchery production. We use this conceptual framework to quantify the relative importance of major threats to the current status of 201 Chinook populations. Current status is characterized by two demographic indices: population density and trend. We employ path analytic models and information theoretic methods for multi-model inference. Our results indicate that dams most strongly affect variation in population density, while harvest and hatchery production most strongly affect variation in population trend. Comparable results arise when the sample size of the analysis is reduced to 22 Chinook populations within a smaller region typical of the scale at which salmon recovery planning is conducted. Results from these threat analyses suggest that recovery strategies targeting specific demographic indices, and those considering natural and human-mediated interdependencies of major threats, are most likely to succeed.