Effects of input uncertainty and variability on the modelled environmental fate of organic pollutants under global climate change scenarios

Global climate change (GCC) is expected to influence the fate, exposure and risks of organic pollutants to wildlife and humans. Multimedia chemical fate models have been previously applied to estimate how GCC affects pollutant concentrations in the environment and biota, but previous studies have not addressed how uncertainty and variability of model inputs affect model predictions. Here, we assess the influence of climate variability and chemical property uncertainty on future projections of environmental fate of six polychlorinated biphenyl congeners under different GCC scenarios using a spreadsheet version of the ChemCAN model and the Crystal Ball® software. Regardless of emission mode, results demonstrate: (i) uncertainty in degradation half-lives dominates the variance of modelled absolute levels of PCB congeners under GCC scenarios; (ii) when the ratios of predictions under GCC to predictions under present day climate are modelled, climate variability dominates the variance of modelled ratios; and (iii) the ratios also indicate a maximum of about a factor of 2 change in the long-term average environmental concentrations due to GCC that is forecasted between present conditions and the period between 2080 and 2099. We conclude that chemical property uncertainty does not preclude assessing relative changes in a GCC scenario compared to a present-day scenario if variance in model outputs due to chemical properties and degradation half-lives can be assumed to cancel out in the two scenarios.     

In vivo endocrine effects of naphthenic acids in fish

Oil pollution from various sources, including exploration, production and transportation, is a growing global concern. The highest toxicity of hydrocarbon pollutants is associated with the water-soluble phase compounds, including naphthenic acids, a known component found in all hydrocarbon deposits. Recently, naphthenic acids (NAs) have shown estrogenic and anti-androgenic effects in vitro. For this reason we investigated the potential effects of two commercial mixtures of naphthenic acids on fish in vivo, using the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) as a model species.     

Fitness benefits of coalitionary aggression in male chimpanzees

Coalitionary aggression occurs when at least two individuals jointly direct aggression at one or more conspecific targets. Scientists have long argued that this common form of cooperation has positive fitness consequences. Nevertheless, despite evidence that social bond strength (which is thought to promote coalition formation) is correlated with fitness in primates, cetaceans, and ungulates, few studies have directly examined whether coalitionary aggression improves reproductive success. We tested the hypothesis that among free-ranging chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii), participation in coalitionary aggression increases reproductive output. Using 14 years of genetic and behavioral data from Gombe National Park, Tanzania, we found that coalitionary aggression increased a male’s chances of (A) siring offspring, compared to other males of similar dominance rank, and (B) ascending in rank, a correlate of future reproductive output. Because male chimpanzees form coalitions with many others within a complex network, we used social network analysis to identify the types of connections correlated with these fitness benefits. The beneficiaries of coalitionary aggression were males with the highest “betweenness”—that is, those who tended to have coalition partners who themselves did not form coalitions with each other. This suggests that beyond simply recognizing third-party relationships, chimpanzees may use this knowledge to choose coalition partners. If so, this is a significant step forward in our knowledge of the adaptive value of social intelligence. Regardless of mechanism, however, this is the first evidence of genetic benefits of coalitionary aggression in this species, and therefore has important implications for understanding the evolution of cooperation.     

Global Urban Growth and the Geography of Water Availability,Quality, and Delivery

Globally, urban growth will add 1.5 billion people to cities by 2030, making the difficult task of urban water provisions even more challenging. In this article, we develop a conceptual framework of urban water provision as composed of three axes: water availability, water quality, and water delivery. For each axis, we calculate quantitative proxy measures for all cities with more than 50,000 residents, and then briefly discuss the strategies cities are using in response if they are deficient on one of the axes. We show that 523 million people are in cities where water availability may be an issue, 890 million people are in cities where water quality may be an issue, and 1.3 billion people are in cities where water delivery may be an issue. Tapping into groundwater is a widespread response, regardless of the management challenge, with many cities unsustainably using this resource. The strategies used by cities deficient on the water delivery axis are different than for cities deficient on the water quantity or water quality axis, as lack of financial resources pushes cities toward a different and potentially less effective set of strategies.     

Applying metabolic fingerprinting to ecology: The use of Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy for the rapid screening of plant responses to N deposition

The potential for metabolic fingerprinting via Fourier-transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy to provide a novel approach for the detection of plant biochemical responses to N deposition is examined. An example of spectral analysis using shoot samples taken from an open top chamber (OTC) experiment simulating wet ammonium deposition is given. Sample preparation involved oven drying and homogenisation via mill grinding. Slurries of a consistent dilution were then prepared prior to FT-IR analysis. Spectra from control, 8 and 16 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1 treatments were then subjected to cross-validated discriminant function analysis. Ordination diagrams showed clear separation between the three N treatments examined. The potential for using Calluna vulgaris (L.) Hull as a bioindicator of N deposition is further evident from these results. The results also clearly demonstrate the power of FT-IR in discriminating between subtle phenotypic alterations in overall plant biochemistry as affected by ammonium pollution.     

Estimated occupational risk from bioaerosols generated during land application of class B biosolids

Some speculate that bioaerosols from land application of biosolids pose occupational risks, but few studies have assessed aerosolization of microorganisms from biosolids or estimated occupational risks of infection. This study investigated levels of microorganisms in air immediately downwind of land application operations and estimated occupational risks from aerosolized microorganisms. In all, more than 300 air samples were collected downwind of biosolids application sites at various locations within the United States. Coliform bacteria, coliphages, and heterotrophic plate count (HPC) bacteria were enumerated from air and biosolids at each site. Concentrations of coliforms relative to Salmonella and concentrations of coliphage relative to enteroviruses in biosolids were used, in conjunction with levels of coliforms and coliphages measured in air during this study, to estimate exposure to Salmonella and enteroviruses in air. The HPC bacteria were ubiquitous in air near land application sites whether or not biosolids were being applied, and concentrations were positively correlated to windspeed. Coliform bacteria were detected only when biosolids were being applied to land or loaded into land applicators. Coliphages were detected in few air samples, and only when biosolids were being loaded into land applicators. In general, environmental parameters had little impact on concentrations of microorganisms in air immediately downwind of land application. The method of land application was most correlated to aerosolization. From this large body of data, the occupational risk of infection from bioaerosols was estimated to be 0.78 to 2.1%/yr. Extraordinary exposure scenarios carried an estimated annual risk of infection of up to 34%, with viruses posing the greatest threat. Risks from aerosolized microorganisms at biosolids land application sites appear to be lower than those at wastewater treatment plants, based on previously reported literature.     

Household Willingness to Pay and Farmers' Willingness to Accept Compensation for Establishing a Recreational Woodland

The UK Forestry Commission's recently implemented Community Woodland scheme sets out to provide new recreational woodland facilities near to towns and cities where such resources are in short supply. This study examines household willingness to pay (WTP) for such a proposed woodland by means of the contingent valuation (CV) method. A stratified sample of 325 households in Wantage, Oxfordshire, was interviewed and asked to state both their annual and per-visit WTP. Analysis of a number of recognized potential biases suggested that the results obtained must be treated with caution although we argue that the CV provides a useful ballpark indication of preferences. A simultaneous CV survey of farmers' willingness to accept compensation for converting agricultural land into woodland proved to be far more robust, despite a small sample size. We conclude that farmers are more familiar with the concept of assessing potential compensation than are households with estimating hypothetical payments for increased provision of public goods.