COMPARISON OF STOCHASTIC AND DETERMINISTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR RESERVOIR OPERATING RULE GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two dynamic programming models — one deterministic and one stochastic — that may be used to generate reservoir operating rules are compared. The deterministic model (DPR) consists of an algorithm that cycles through three components: a dynamic program, a regression analysis, and a simulation. In this model, the correlation between the general operating rules, defined by the regression analysis and evaluated in the simulation, and the optimal deterministic operation defined by the dynamic program is increased through an iterative process. The stochastic dynamic program (SDP) describes streamflows with a discrete lag-one Markov process. To test the usefulness of both models in generating reservoir operating rules, real-time reservoir operation simulation models are constructed for three hydrologically different sites. The rules generated by DPR and SDP are then applied in the operation simulation model and their performance is evaluated. For the test cases, the DPR generated rules are more effective in the operation of medium to very large reservoirs and the SDP generated rules are more effective for the operation of small reservoirs.     

Relationship between the lipid content of fish and their bioconcentration potential of 1,2,4-trichlorobenzene

A significant positive correlation between the lipid content of eight fish species and their bioconcentration factor (BCF) of 1,2,4-trichlorobenzene is demonstrated. The log BCF value on a lipid basis is in good agreement with the log n-octanol/water partition coefficient.     

Restrictive dermopathy and fetal behaviour

We report three siblings from consecutive pregnancies affected with restrictive dermopathy (RD). During the second pregnancy, fetal behavioural development and growth were studied extensively using ultrasound at 1–4 week intervals. Dramatic and sudden changes occurred in fetal body movements and growth but not until the end of the second trimester of pregnancy. Prominent at that time were prolonged periods of fetal quiescence and very low heart rate variability, together with abnormally executed body movements of short duration. Retarded femoral development and jerky abrupt fetal body movements (abnormal movement quality) were already present in the early second trimester of pregnancy. Facial anomalies emerged despite the presence of fetal mouth movements. The clinical features of RD were only partly explained by present knowledge of skin development and the fetal akinesia deformation sequence hypothesis. Quantitative assessment of fetal movements proved to be a poor early marker for antenatal diagnosis of this disorder. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A comparison of different lysis buffers to assess allele dropout from single cells for preimplantation genetic diagnosis

Single cell polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) requires high efficiency and accuracy. Allele dropout (ADO), the random amplification failure of one of the two parental alleles, remains the most significant problem in PCR-based PGD testing since it can result in serious misdiagnosis for compound heterozygous or autosomal dominant conditions. A number of different strategies (including the use of lysis buffers to break down the cell and make the DNA accessible) have been employed to combat ADO with varying degrees of success, yet there is still no consensus among PGD centres over which lysis buffer should be used (ESHRE PGD Consortium, 1999 ). To address this issue, PCR amplification of three genes (CFTR, LAMA3 and PKP1) at different chromosomal loci was investigated. Single lymphocytes from individuals heterozygous for mutations within each of the three genes were collected and lysed in either alkaline lysis buffer (ALB) or proteinase K/SDS lysis buffer (PK). PCR amplification efficiencies were comparable between alkaline lysis and proteinase K lysis for PCR products spanning each of the three mutated loci (ΔF508 in CFTR 90% vs 88%; R650X in LAMA3 82% vs 78%; and Y71X in PKP1 91% vs 87%). While there was no appreciable difference between ADO rates between the two lysis buffers for the LAMA3 PCR product (25% vs 26%), there were significant differences in ADO rates between ALB and PK for the CFTR PCR product (0% vs 23%) and the PKP1 PCR product (8% vs 56%). Based on these results, we are currently using ALB in preference to PK/SDS buffer for the lysis of cells in clinical PGD. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE INFLUENCE OF SETTINGS AND ENVIRONMENTAL EVENTS ON METAMOTIVATIONAL STATE AND AROUSAL: FURTHER TESTS OF REVERSAL THEORY ON ASIAN SAMPLES

The two studies reported further test reversal theory hypotheses concerning human psychological responses to different types of settings and environmental events on an Asian sample. In study 1, individuals in four settings representing different combinations of metamotivational state and arousal level (telic and paratelic/low arousal; telic and paratelic/high arousal) completed the telic state measure (TSM; Svebak & Murgatroyd, 1985). Significant differences between participants' mean scores across the four settings were obtained for TSM items serious–playful, planning–spontaneous, felt arousal, preferred arousal, effort and arousal discrepancy. In study 2 different environmental events in the same setting (changes in reading tasks), used in a crossover design, were used to induce reversals in individuals' operative metamotivational states. The results obtained from TSM scores pretask 1, between tasks and posttask 2. indicated significant time-of-testing interaction effects on the TSM serious–playful, planning–spontaneous and effort items. In addition, a main effect for TSM felt arousal was found. These results showed that reversals in metamotivational states were induced by the environmental event and that felt arousal scores increased across the three administrations of the TSM.     

生态足迹影响因子的定量分析

人口的膨胀和人类工业化进程的加剧，使得人类向自然界获取越来越多的资源，同时向环境源源不断的输入废弃物，已经严重超过了自然生态系统的供给能力和环境容量，生态环境日益恶化，水土流失、草场退化、植被消亡、生物多样性锐减、全球变暖等情况已经严重到难以遏制的地步，危及到人类自身的生存。在和平与发展成为世界两大主题的今天，人们越来越关注可持续发展的问题。在现有资料的基础上，利用主成分分析方法，定量地讨论了中国各省（区市）1999年生态足迹大小与其影响因子间的关系。结果表明，生态足迹的大小是各省（区市）的大中型企业个数、全社会固定生产投资等众多因子共同作用的结果，其中总人口和GDP是生态足迹大小的主要影响因子，其因子载荷量分别达到了0.940和0.913。值得一提的是非农业人口与生态足迹的相关系数超过了农业人口，这说明由于消费模式和生活水平等的差异，非农业人口对生态足迹的影响大于农业人口对生态足迹的影响。在此基础上建立了生态足迹影响因子的多元线性回归模型，以期为生态足迹在进行区域可持续发展评价的方法上提供新的思路。     

Use of beryllium-7 to document soil redistribution following forest harvest operations

Rapid and reliable methods for documenting soil erosion associated with forest harvest operations are needed to support the development of best management practices for soil and water conservation. To address this need, the potential for using 7Be measurements to estimate patterns and amounts of soil redistribution associated with individual post-harvest events was explored. The 7Be technique, which was originally developed for use on agricultural land, was employed to estimate soil redistribution associated with a period of heavy rainfall within a harvested forest area located in the Lake Region of Chile (39 degrees 44'7' S, 73 degrees 10'39' W; 22% slope; and mean annual rainfall 2300 mm yr(-1)). The results provided by the 7Be technique were validated against direct measurements of soil gain or loss during the same period obtained using erosion pins. The information produced by the two approaches was similar. The results of this study demonstrate the potential for using 7Be measurements to document event-based erosion in recently harvested forest areas.     

Human induced salinisation and the use of quantitative methods

Sustainable development of the earth's limited water and land resources is of paramount importance because of rising world population and existing conflicting demands for these resources. Enormous capital investment has been made in developing these resources, but now there is irrefutable evidence that such developments have led to major resource degradation. This includes problems of salinisation and damages to ecosystems. The countries predominantly affected by human induced salinisation are located in arid and semi-arid regions of the world and include Australia, China, Egypt, India, Pakistan, USSR, and USA. This paper describes the processes of salinisation, its impacts and the use of quantitative methods in salinity investigation and management. Australia is used as a case study of typical salinity problems and as a demonstration of the fruitful application of quantitative methods. The paper concludes that quantitative methods such as surface water and groundwater models are powerful design, management and predictive tools in salinity investigation. However, application of some models, such as those for unsaturated flow and transport and groundwater solute transport, are not widespread due to uncertainties in describing the complexity of the processes and the lack of hydrodispersive data.