A NEW LOOK AT FLOOD RISK DETERMINATION1

ABSTRACT: The probability distributions of annual peak flows used in flood risk analysis quantify the risk that a design flood will be exceeded. But the parameters of these distributions are themselves to a degree uncertain and this uncertainty increases the risk that the flood protection provided will in fact prove to be inadequate. The increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is small when a fairly long record of data is available and the annual flood peaks are serially independent, which is the standard assumption in flood frequency analysis. But standard tests for serial independence are insensitive to the type of grouping of high and low values in a time series, which is measured by the Hurst coefficient. This grouping increases the parameter uncertainty considerably. A study of 49 annual peak flow series for Canadian rivers shows that many have a high Hurst coefficient. The corresponding increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is shown to be substantial even for rivers with a long record, and therefore should not be neglected. The paper presents a method of rationally combining parameter uncertainty due to serial correlation, and the stochastic variability of peak flows in a single risk assessment. In addition, a relatively simple time series model that is capable of reproducing the observed serial correlation of flood peaks is presented.     

ESTIMATING THE WATER QUALITY BENEFITS FROM SOIL EROSION CONTROL1

ABSTRACT: A framework for estimating the water quality benefits from soil erosion was developed. The framework is based on the linkages between soil erosion and offsite damages. The linkages are: erosion on the field, movement of eroded materials to waterways, impact of discharged material on water quality parameters, impact of water quality changes on ability of water to provide economic services, and the economic value of the changes in water use. These linkages need to be modeled in order to estimate the water quality benefits from reductions in soil erosion. Methods for modeling each link on a geographic level, which enables the analyses of national soil conservation, were examined. Areas where data or models were found to be lacking include transport of sediment and nutrients to water systems, impact of discharged materials on water quality parameters, and impact of water quality on ability of water to provide economic services. An economic evaluation of 1983 soil conservation programs was presented as an example of how the framework could be used. A number of simplifying assumptions were made to represent links that could not be modeled with available data.     

CONFLICT ANALYSIS OF THE SHOAL LAKE SUBDWISION1

ABSTRACT: The techniques of conflict analysis derived from game theory were applied to the Shoal Lake water supply conflict in southeastern Manitoba, Canada. The issue of conflict is the desire of an Indian Band in the area to build cottage lots near the intake for water supply for the City of Winnipeg. The City of Winnipeg contends that such a development would seriously affect the quality of water supplied to the City, thereby increasing its treatment costs significantly. The four major players defined for the conflict are the City of Winnipeg, Indian Band No. 40, the Province of Manitoba, and the Federal Department of Indian and Northern Affairs. The results of the conflict analysis suggest that the introduction of the provincial and federal government into the conifict will not assist significantly in its resolution and that further progress on the resolution is unlikely until the results of Federal Environment Assessment Review office hearing become available.     

EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT OF POPULATIONS USING ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING,DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS,AND GIS1

ABSTRACT: Simulation of ground-water flow and fate of contaminants in the subsurface environment constitutes a major phase of most environmental assessment and site remediation studies. These simulation studies yield information on spatial and temporal distributions of contaminants in the subsurface media. An important use of this information is to conduct exposure assessment studies. Spatial and temporal distributions of both chemical concentrations and exposed populations render this integrated exposure analysis task rather difficult. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), on the other hand, provide a platform in which layered, spatially distributed databases can be manipulated with ease, thereby simplifying exposure analysis tasks significantly. In this paper, we describe procedures that combine the simulation models and demographic databases under a GIS platform to automate the exposure assessment phase of a typical health assessment study. Procedures developed herein significantly simplify the post-processing phase of the analysis, and render the overall task more ‘user friendly.’ A site-specific application is included as a demonstration of the proposed process.     

PARTITIONING SMALL SCALE SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF RUNOFF AND EROSION ON SAGEBRUSH RANGELAND1

ABSTRACT: Most hydrologic models require input parameters which represent the variability found across an entire landscape. The estimation of such parameters is very difficult, particularly on rangeland. Improved model parameter estimation procedures are needed which incorporate the small-scale and temporal variability found on rangeland. This study investigates the use of a surface soil classification scheme to partition the spatial variability in hydrologic and interrill erosion processes in a sagebrush plant community. Four distinct microsites were found to exist within the sagebrush coppice-dune dune-interspace complex. The microsites explained the majority of variation in hydrologic and interrill erosion response found on the site and were discernable based on readily available soil and vegetation information. The variability within each microsite was quite low and was not well correlated with soil and vegetation properties. The surface soil classification scheme defined in this study can be quite useful for defining sampling procedures, for understanding hydrologic and erosion processes, and for parameterizing hydrologic models for use on sagebrush range-land.     

SOIL MOISTURE SENSORS FOR CONTINUOUS MONITORING1

ABSTRACT: Certain physical and chemical properties of soil vary with soil water content. The relationship between these properties and water content is complex and involves both the pore structure and constituents of the soil solution. One of the most economical techniques to quantify soil water content involves the measurement of electrical resistance of a dielectric medium that is in equilibrium with the soil water content. The objective of this research was to test the reliability and accuracy of fiberglass soil-moisture electrical resistance sensors (ERS) as compared to gravimetric sampling and Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR). The response of the ERS was compared to gravimetric measurements at eight locations on the USDA-ABS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed. The comparisons with TDR sensors were made at three additional locations on the same watershed. The high soil rock content (≥45 percent) at seven locations resulted in consistent overestimation of soil water content by the ERS method. Where rock content was less than 10 percent, estimation of soil water was within 5 percent of the gravimetric soil water content. New methodology to calibrate the ERS sensors for rocky soils will need to be developed before soil water content values can be determined with these sensors.     

REVIEW OF A SEVENTEEN-YEAR CHLOROPHYLL RECORD AS IT PERTAINS TO THE TROPIIIC STATUS OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE,FLORIDA, USA1

ABSTRACT: A 17-year record of chlorophyll a at eight limnetic sampling stations was used to evaluate putative changes in the trophic status of Lake Okeechobee, a shallow polymictic lake located in the subtropical environment of South Florida. Significant spatial differences were observed in the temporal patterns and variability of chlorophyll a concentrations. The highest chlorophyll a values were found in the northern and northwestern regions of the lake. The center of the lake, subject to high levels of non-algal suspended solids, exhibited relatively low chlorophyll a values and coefficient of variation. The lowest chlorophyll a values were observed at the southernmost sampling station in the lake. This was also the station that showed a significant upward trend in annual mean chlorophyll a values over the 17-year period of record. Examination of the relationship between chlorophyll a and three key environmental variables (i.e., total phosphorus concentration, phosphorus loading, and lake stage) revealed significant correlations at two out of the eight stations. The overall results of this study indicate that spatial and temporal disparities in the distribution and dynamics of chlorophyll a in Lake Okeechobee mandate more temporally and spatially intense approaches to the evaluation of trophic state than used in previous studies.     

DOWNSTREAM CHANNEL GEOMETRY FOR USE IN PLANNING-LEVEL MODELS1

ABSTRACT: There is considerable potential for use of channel dimension data in planning-level models for resource and impact assessment. The channel dimension data is used to route flows and sediment through the basin. The cost of obtaining actual surveyed data for large watersheds is typically prohibitive. Predictive equations have been developed based on 674 stations from watersheds across the United States which encompass a wide variety of channel types and sizes. These equations were tested against an independent data set and found to be adequate for use in planning-level models. Future research is advocated which would include data from regions and stream types not included in this study.     

Biodegradable plastic made from soybean products. II. Effects of cross-linking and cellulose incorporation on mechanical properties and water absorption

Soy isolate was treated with formaldehyde and glyoxal at 1.0, 2.5, and 5.0% (w/w isolate) and with adipic and acetic anhydrides. The materials were then compression-molded into plastic tensile bars and tested for tensile and yield strength, percentage elongation, Young's modulus, and water absorption. Treatment with 5% formaldehyde increased the tensile strength significantly, to 4.9 kg/mm², compared with the untreated sample (3.7 kg/mm²). The yield strength increased slightly, to 0.68 kg/mm². Elongation was significantly less after treatment with formaldehyde. Young's modulus increased after treatment and leveled off at 174 kg/mm². Water absorption decreased as the formaldehyde concentration increased. Treatment with either glyoxal or adipic/acetic anhydride had a detrimental effect on the mechanical properties of the plastic specimens. Water absorption was decreased by glyoxal treatment but was not affected by adipic/acetic anhydride treatment. Long-fiber (lf), short-fiber (sf), and microcrystalline (mc) cellulose were incorporated into soy isolate at various levels. Cellulose addition decreased the percentage elongation and increased the rigidity of the plastic. All three cellulose additions increased Young's modulus. The tensile strength increased with the addition of sf-cellulose to soy isolate; lf-cellulose decreased the tensile strength, whereas the incorporation of mc-cellulose did not have a significant effect. The yield strength increased slightly with the addition of sf-cellulose and was less affected by the addition of lf- or mc-cellulose. All three types of cellulose slightly decreased water absorption at ca. 15% content.Journal Paper No. J-15563 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames; Project No. 2863.