Comparison of the Performance of Statistical Models in Forecasting Monthly Total Dissolved Solids in the Rio Grande1

Abudu, S., J.P. King, Z. Sheng, 2011. Comparison of the Performance of Statistical Models in Forecasting Monthly Total Dissolved Solids in the Rio Grande. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 10‐23. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00587.x Abstract: This paper presents the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), transfer function‐noise (TFN), and artificial neural networks (ANNs) modeling approaches in forecasting monthly total dissolved solids (TDS) of water in the Rio Grande at El Paso, Texas. Predictability analysis was performed between the precipitation, temperature, streamflow rates at the site, releases from upstream reservoirs, and monthly TDS using cross‐correlation statistical tests. The chi‐square test results indicated that the average monthly temperature and precipitation did not show significant predictability on monthly TDS series. The performances of one‐ to three‐month‐ahead model forecasts for the testing period of 1984‐1994 showed that the TFN model that incorporated the streamflow rates at the site and Caballo Reservoir release improved monthly TDS forecasts slightly better than the ARIMA models. Except for one‐month‐ahead forecasts, the ANN models using the streamflow rates at the site as inputs resulted in no significant improvements over the TFN models at two‐month‐ahead and three‐month‐ahead forecasts. For three‐month‐ahead forecasts, the simple ARIMA showed similar performance compared to all other models. The results of this study suggested that simple deseasonalized ARIMA models could be used in one‐ to three‐month‐ahead TDS forecasting at the study site with a simple, explicit model structure and similar model performance as the TFN and ANN models for better water management in the Basin.     

OPTIMAL IDENTIFICATION OF MUSKINGUM ROUTING COEFFICIENTS1

Traditionally, identification of the Muskingum routing coefficients has been based on observations of the linearity of a loop formed by graphically plotting a forward and a reverse path. This graphical procedure is time-consuming and may not minimize the error of estimation. A procedure was developed to improve the drawbacks of the graphical method. This procedure calls for (a) the use of least square regression on the forward and reverse paths to determine their respective slopes, and (b) the use of statistical t-test to evaluate the hypothesis that these two slopes are equal. The computational procedure is repeated, using incremental values of the flow weighting coefficient, x. A graph of the computed t-value versus x can be constructed. The optimal value of x, as read from the graph, occurs at the minimum computed t-value. The procedure has been demonstrated superior to the graphical method for three illustrative examples, resulting in a reduction of the error squares by factors ranging from 5 to 6.     

REVIEW ON GLOBAL NATURAL DISASTERS IN 2000

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A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF SALMONID SPAWNING HABITAT1

ABSTRACT: A simulation model [Salmonid Spawning Analysis Model (SSAM)] was developed as a management tool to evaluate the relative impacts of stream sediment load and water temperature on salmonid egg survival. The model is useful for estimating acceptable sediment loads to spawning habitat that may result from upland development, such as logging and agriculture. Software in common use in the USA were adapted for use in gravel bedded rivers and linked to simulate water temperature (the USFWS Instream Water Temperature, SNTEMP model) and water and sediment routing (the USAE Scour and Deposition in Rivers and Reservoirs, HEC-6 model, version 3.2). These models drive the redd (spawning nest) model (the USDA-ABS Sediment Intrusion Dissolved Oxygen SIDO model) which simulates sediment intrusion and dissolved oxygen concentration in the redd environment. The SSAM model predictions of dissolved oxygen and water temperature compared favorably with field data from artificial redds containing hatchery chinook salmon eggs.     

FACTORS THAT AFFECT ACTIVATED SLUDGE PHOSPHATE RELEASE1

The activated sludge process can remove significant amounts of phosphorus from sewage, but the removal efficiency is usually significantly reduced by the release of phosphate back to solution during subsequent treatment steps. This research presents a study of soluble phosphate release from activated sludge with emphasis on defining the factors that affect such release and the actual release mechanisms. Laboratory units were used for experimental purposes. The experiments were designed to study the relationship between soluble phosphate release and various environmental factors such as redox potential (ORP), dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, solids concentration, solids destruction, and sulfate salt addition. The effect of substrate utilization on phosphate uptake and the relationship between uptake characteristics and subsequent phosphate release were also studied. The results show that some phosphate storage occurs during aerobic substrate utilization. Following substrate utilization, activated sludge phosphate release is directly related to the amount of biological stress the organisms are subjected to, and the mechanism of release is primarily cell lysis. The phosphate released per unit sludge under anoxic conditions is relatively constant. Under normal environmental conditions, neither ORP or pH change have a significant affect on phosphate release.     

Correlations in the chemical composition of rural background atmospheric aerosol in the UK determined in real time using time-of-flight mass spectrometry

An aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer (ATOFMS) was used to determine, in real time, the size and chemical composition of individual particles in the atmosphere at the remote inland site of Eskdalemuir, Scotland. A total of 51,980 particles, in the size range 0.3-7.4 microm, were detected between the 25th and 30th June 2001. Rapid changes in the number density, size and chemical composition of the atmospheric aerosol were observed. These changes are attributed to two distinct types of air mass; a polluted air mass that had passed over the British mainland before reaching Eskdalemuir, interposed between two cleaner air masses that had arrived directly from the sea. Such changes in the background aerosol could clearly be very important to studies of urban aerosols and attempts at source apportionment. The results of an objective method of data analysis are presented. Correlations were sought between the occurrence of: lithium, potassium, rubidium, caesium, beryllium, strontium, barium, ammonium, amines, nitrate, nitrite, boron, mercury, sulfate, phosphate, fluorine, chlorine, bromine, iodine and carbon (both elemental and organic hydrocarbon) in both fine (d < 2.5 microm) and coarse (d > 2.5 microm) particle fractions. Several previously unreported correlations were observed, for instance between the elements lithium, beryllium and boron. The results suggest that about 2 in 3 of all fine particles (by number rather than by mass), and 1 in 2 of all coarse particles containing carbon, consisted of elemental carbon rather than organic hydrocarbon (although a bias in the sensitivity of the ATOFMS could have affected these numbers). The ratio of the number of coarse particles containing nitrate anions to the number of particles containing chloride anions exceeded unity when the air mass had travelled over the British mainland. The analysis also illustrates that an air mass of marine origin that had travelled slowly over agricultural land can accumulate amines and ammonium.     

Female brown-headed cowbirds' (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Molothrus ater</Emphasis>) social assortment changes in response to male song: a potential source of public information

In many species, females' behavior appears to be influenced by that of other females, particularly regarding mate choice. Females theoretically can reduce the costs associated with independent male assessment by observing conspecifics. Studies of brown-headed cowbirds suggest that females pay attention to other females' behavior. Group-housed females modify their song preferences, whereas females housed in pairs do not. What information is available to females in a group environment? To address this question, we studied two groups of juvenile (i.e. hatch-year birds) and adult female cowbirds in a naturalistic group setting. We used a longitudinal ABA design, consecutively introducing and removing males that differed in age, amount of song production and stage of song development, to isolate the male characteristics that related to changes in female behavior. Juvenile and adult females assorted by age class when singing adult males were in the aviary, but not when singing juveniles or silent males of any age class were in the aviary. Results from playback tests confirmed that adult male song alone influenced female age class assortment. Videotape analysis from playback tests revealed that females also wing stroked in response to male song. Other females sometimes approached females who wing stroked and observed them. We hypothesize that group-level changes in social organization and individual females' responses can serve as visual signals for other individuals.     

Exposure Programme on Atmospheric Corrosion Effects of Acidifying Pollutants in Tropical and Subtropical Climates

Many national exposure programmes have been performed in tropical and subtropical climates during the last 50 years. However, ambitious programmes involving more than a few countries are scarce. In this paper a recently formed network of test sites is described involving 12 test sites in Asia (India, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and China including Hong Kong) and four test sites in Africa (South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe). This effort is part of the 2001–2004 Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) funded Programme on Regional Air Pollution in Developing Countries (RAPIDC). Corrosion attack after one (2002–2003) year of exposure (carbon steel, zinc, copper, limestone and paint coated steel) are presented together with environmental data (SO₂, NO₂, HNO₃, O₃, particles, amount and pH of precipitation, temperature and relative humidity) for all the test sites. The obtained corrosion values are substantially higher than expected for limestone, higher than expected for carbon steel and lower than expected for zinc compared to values calculated using the best available dose–response functions.     

Exposure to moderate concentrations of tropospheric ozone impairs tree stomatal response to carbon dioxide

With rising concentrations of both atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and tropospheric ozone (O₃), it is important to better understand the interacting effects of these two trace gases on plant physiology affecting land-atmosphere gas exchange. We investigated the effect of growth under elevated CO₂ and O₃, singly and in combination, on the primary short-term stomatal response to CO₂ concentration in paper birch at the Aspen FACE experiment. Leaves from trees grown in elevated CO₂ and/or O₃ exhibited weaker short-term responses of stomatal conductance to both an increase and a decrease in CO₂ concentration from current ambient level. The impairement of the stomatal CO₂ response by O₃ most likely developed progressively over the growing season as assessed by sap flux measurements. Our results suggest that expectations of plant water-savings and reduced stomatal air pollution uptake under rising atmospheric CO₂ may not hold for northern hardwood forests under concurrently rising tropospheric O₃.     

Strategic environmental noise mapping: Methodological issues concerning the implementation of the EU Environmental Noise Directive and their policy implications

This paper explores methodological issues and policy implications concerning the implementation of the EU Environmental Noise Directive (END) across Member States. Methodologically, the paper focuses on two key thematic issues relevant to the Directive: (1) calculation methods and (2) mapping methods. For (1), the paper focuses, in particular, on how differing calculation methods influence noise prediction results as well as the value of the EU noise indicator L_den and its associated implications for comparability of noise data across EU states. With regard to (2), emphasis is placed on identifying the issues affecting strategic noise mapping, estimating population exposure, noise action planning and dissemination of noise mapping results to the general public. The implication of these issues for future environmental noise policy is also examined.