Longevity can buffer plant and animal populations against changing climatic variability

Both means and year-to-year variances of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation are predicted to change. However, the potential impact of changing climatic variability on the fate of populations has been largely unexamined. We analyzed multiyear demographic data for 36 plant and animal species with a broad range of life histories and types of environment to ask how sensitive their long-term stochastic population growth rates are likely to be to changes in the means and standard deviations of vital rates (survival, reproduction, growth) in response to changing climate. We quantified responsiveness using elasticities of the long-term population growth rate predicted by stochastic projection matrix models. Short-lived species (insects and annual plants and algae) are predicted to be more strongly (and negatively) affected by increasing vital rate variability relative to longer-lived species (perennial plants, birds, ungulates). Taxonomic affiliation has little power to explain sensitivity to increasing variability once longevity has been taken into account. Our results highlight the potential vulnerability of short-lived species to an increasingly variable climate, but also suggest that problems associated with short-lived undesirable species (agricultural pests, disease vectors, invasive weedy plants) may be exacerbated in regions where climate variability decreases.     

The Hourglass: A Conceptual Framework for the Transport of Biologically Active Compounds from Agricultural Landscapes

Recent research has suggested that the fate of biologically active compounds (BACs) originating from point sources such as wastewater treatment plants is fundamentally different from that of similar compounds released from nonpoint sources through runoff from agricultural landscapes. Downstream from wastewater treatment plants, BACs will degrade via a variety of mechanisms; however, their concentration in the water adjacent to the point of discharge may not decrease over time, as the compounds are continually released. In contrast, in agricultural systems, BACs are episodically introduced to surface water during snowmelt and rainstorm events, and under these circumstances, may be found in water for only hours or days after a storm event. Recent research in our laboratories as well as others, has suggested that sediments play an important role in the persistence of herbicides and steroids in watersheds after nonpoint source loading events. Conceptually, the sediment serves as both a sink and a source, equilibrating with BACs during storm events then slowly releasing them back into the water over time, long after the initial pulse of chemicals has moved downstream.     

农药在世界农业中使用的未来

怎样才能在不危害农业的长期可持续发展性情况下生产出足够的食物?有许多方法可以在达到已经提出的生产目标的同时减轻传统农业(使用化学农药和肥料)的冲击.随着旨在使农药使用降低到最低程度的害虫综合治理(IPM)之类技术的发展以及引入遗传修饰农作物后在农药使用方面的变化,已经取得了良好的成果.本文分析了在世界不同地区农业中使用的各种技术的冲击.本文也考察了这些技术是否能有助于问题的解决或是会产生一系列新的问题.     

Automated conservation assessment of the orchid family with deep learning

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments are essential for prioritizing conservation needs but are resource intensive and therefore available only for a fraction of global species richness. Automated conservation assessments based on digitally available geographic occurrence records can be a rapid alternative, but it is unclear how reliable these assessments are. We conducted automated conservation assessments for 13,910 species (47.3% of the known species in the family) of the diverse and globally distributed orchid family (Orchidaceae), for which most species (13,049) were previously unassessed by IUCN. We used a novel method based on a deep neural network (IUC-NN). We identified 4,342 orchid species (31.2% of the evaluated species) as possibly threatened with extinction (equivalent to IUCN categories critically endangered [CR], endangered [EN], or vulnerable [VU]) and Madagascar, East Africa, Southeast Asia, and several oceanic islands as priority areas for orchid conservation. Orchidaceae provided a model with which to test the sensitivity of automated assessment methods to problems with data availability, data quality, and geographic sampling bias. The IUC-NN identified possibly threatened species with an accuracy of 84.3%, with significantly lower geographic evaluation bias relative to the IUCN Red List and was robust even when data availability was low and there were geographic errors in the input data. Overall, our results demonstrate that automated assessments have an important role to play in identifying species at the greatest risk of extinction.     

Consistent effects of nitrogen fertilization on soil bacterial communities in contrasting systems

Ecosystems worldwide are receiving increasing amounts of reactive nitrogen (N) through anthropogenic activities. Although the effects of increased N inputs on plant communities have been reasonably well studied, few comparable studies have examined impacts on whole soil bacterial communities, though they play critical roles in ecosystem functioning. We sampled soils from two long-term ecological research (LTER) experimental N gradients, both of which have been amended with NH4NO3; a grassland at Cedar Creek (27 years of N additions) and an agricultural field at Kellogg Biological Station (8 years of N additions). By examining shifts in bacterial communities across these contrasting ecosystem types, we could test competing hypotheses about the direct and indirect factors that might drive bacterial responses to elevated N inputs. Bacterial community structure was highly responsive to N additions. We observed predictable and consistent changes in the structure of the bacterial communities across both ecosystem types. Our results suggest that bacterial communities across these gradients are more structured by N and/or soil carbon availability than by shifts in the plant community or soil pH associated with the elevated nitrogen inputs. In contrast to the pronounced shifts in bacterial community composition and in direct contrast to the patterns often observed in plant communities, increases in N availability did not have consistent effects on the richness and diversity of soil bacterial communities.     

Prioritisation of native legume species for further evaluation as potential forage crops in water-limited agricultural systems in South Africa

In the face of climate change, identification of forage species suitable for dryland farming under low rainfall conditions in South Africa is needed. Currently, there are only a limited number of forage species suitable for dryland farming under such conditions. The objective of this study was to identify and prioritise native legume species that could potentially be used in dryland farming systems in water-limited agro-ecosystems in South Africa. Using a combination of ecological niche modelling techniques, plant functional traits, and indigenous knowledge, 18 perennial herbaceous or stem-woody legume species were prioritised for further evaluation as potential fodder species within water-limited agricultural areas. These species will be evaluated further for their forage quality and their ability to survive and produce enough biomass under water limitation and poor edaphic conditions.     

Attractants from Bartlett pear for codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.), larvae

The alkyl ethyl and methyl esters of (2E,4Z)-2,4-decadienoic acid found in head-space samples of ripe Bartlett pear (Pyrus communis L.) stimulated a response from neonate larvae of the codling moth (CM), Cydia pomonella (L.), in both static-air Petri-plate and in upwind Y-tube and straight-tube olfactometer bioassays. In comparison with the known CM neonate attractant, (E,E)-!-farnesene, ethyl (2E,4Z)-2,4-decadienoate was attractive at 10-fold and 1,000-fold lower threshold dosages in the Petri-plate and in the Y-tube bioassays, respectively. Methyl (2E,4Z)-2,4-decadienoate was attractive to CM neonates in these bioassays at much higher doses than ethyl (2E,4Z)-2,4-decadienoate. Other principal head-space volatiles from ripe pear fruit and pear leaves, including butyl acetate, hexyl acetate, (Z)-3-hexenyl acetate, and (E)-#-ocimene, were not attractive to CM neonates. The potential uses of these pear kairomones for monitoring and control of CM in walnuts and apple are discussed.     

Quantifying the relative irreplaceability of important bird and biodiversity areas

World governments have committed to increase the global protected areas coverage by 2020, but the effectiveness of this commitment for protecting biodiversity depends on where new protected areas are located. Threshold‐ and complementarity‐based approaches have been independently used to identify important sites for biodiversity. We brought together these approaches by performing a complementarity‐based analysis of irreplaceability in important bird and biodiversity areas (IBAs), which are sites identified using a threshold‐based approach. We determined whether irreplaceability values are higher inside than outside IBAs and whether any observed difference depends on known characteristics of the IBAs. We focused on 3 regions with comprehensive IBA inventories and bird distribution atlases: Australia, southern Africa, and Europe. Irreplaceability values were significantly higher inside than outside IBAs, although differences were much smaller in Europe than elsewhere. Higher irreplaceability values in IBAs were associated with the presence and number of restricted‐range species; number of criteria under which the site was identified; and mean geographic range size of the species for which the site was identified (trigger species). In addition, IBAs were characterized by higher irreplaceability values when using proportional species representation targets, rather than fixed targets. There were broadly comparable results when measuring irreplaceability for trigger species and when considering all bird species, which indicates a good surrogacy effect of the former. Recently, the International Union for Conservation of Nature has convened a consultation to consolidate global standards for the identification of key biodiversity areas (KBAs), building from existing approaches such as IBAs. Our results informed this consultation, and in particular a proposed irreplaceability criterion that will allow the new KBA standard to draw on the strengths of both threshold‐ and complementarity‐based approaches.     

Significance of Riverine Hypoxia for Fish: The Case of the Big Sunflower River,Mississippi1

Shields, F. Douglas, Jr. and Scott S. Knight, 2011. Significance of Riverine Hypoxia for Fish: The Case of the Big Sunflower River, Mississippi. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 170‐186. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00606.x Abstract: Degraded streams draining low‐relief, intensively cultivated watersheds may experience periods of hypoxia or anoxia. A three‐year study of water chemistry, fish, and physical habitat in the Big Sunflower River in northwestern Mississippi coupled with continuously logged physicochemical and hydrology data provided by others showed prolonged periods of hypoxia associated with higher flows. Fish species richness was directly related to dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration (r² = 0.35, p = 0.00004), and ordination using nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) indicated strong association between fish community structure and DO. Low‐head weirs supported relatively dense and diverse fish communities and thus provided local habitat enhancement, but may create stagnant zones upstream due to backwater effects that exacerbate low DO problems. Although hypoxia has been reported for some lightly degraded rivers and floodplains, our observations suggest hypoxia in Big Sunflower River and similar systems alters fish species composition and should be remediated. Cost‐effective remediation will require better understanding of autotrophic and heterotrophic processes that control DO and the relationship of these processes to discharge.