Estimating metabolic rate for butadiene at steady state using a Bayesian physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model

In a study of 133 volunteer subjects, demographic, physiologic and pharmacokinetic data through exposure to 1,3-Butadiene (BD) were collected in order to estimate the percentage of BD concentration metabolized at steady state, and to determine whether this percentage varies across gender, racial, and age groups. During the 20 min of continuous exposure to 2 parts per million (ppm) of BD, five measurements of exhaled concentration were made on each subject. In the following 40 min washout period, another five measurements were collected. A Bayesian hierarchical compartmental physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model (PKPB) was used. Using prior information on the model parameters, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation was conducted to obtain posterior distributions. The overall estimate of the mean percent of BD metabolized at steady state was 12.7% (95% credible interval: 7.7–17.8%). There was no significant difference in gender with males having a mean of 13.5%, and females 12.3%. Among the racial groups, Hispanic (13.9%), White (13.0%), Asian (12.1%), and Black (10.9%), the significant difference came from the difference between Black and Hispanic with a 95% credible interval from −5.63 to −0.30%. Those older than 30 years had a mean of 12.2% versus 12.9% for the younger group; although this was not a statistically significant difference. Given a constant inhalation input of 2 ppm, at steady state, the overall mean exhaled concentration was estimated to be 1.75ppm (95% credible interval: 1.64–1.84). An equivalent parameter, first-order metabolic rate constant, was also estimated and found to be consistent with the percent of BD metabolized at steady state across gender, race, and age strata.     

Moving beyond “mitigation and adaptation”: examining climate change responses in New Zealand

Despite the apparent failure of international negotiations and renewed criticism of the accuracy of climate science, responses to climate change continue in households, cities, fields, and meeting rooms. Notions of “doing something about”, or “taking action on” or “mitigating and adapting” to climate change inform practices of carbon trading, restoring native forests, constructing wind turbines, insulating houses, using energy efficient light bulbs, and lobbying politicians for more or less of these actions. These expressions of agency in relation to climate change provide the focus of our enquiry. We found that relationships or social networks linked through local government are building capabilities to respond to climate change. However, the framework of “mitigation–adaptation” will need to be supplemented by a more diverse suite of mental models for making sense of climate change. Use of appropriate languages, cultural reference points, and metaphors embedded in diverse histories of climates and change will assist actors in their networked climate change responses.     

萨摩亚可持续性旅游的监控

旅游业是萨摩亚经济一个不断增长的重要组成部分 . 对于萨摩亚的社会和环境发展 , 它也具 有很大价值 , 而且至今并未得到充分利用 . 但是旅游业又是一种脆弱的产业 , 特别是在一个 小岛上 , 污染或者不适当开发都很容易对它的资源造成破坏 . 要想让萨摩亚的旅游业长期良 性发展 , 就必须重视这些问题 . 形成旅游产业的主要支柱是吸引力、基础设施、硬件设备、 服务水平等 , 因此有必要制定保障旅游业及其国家赖以存在的资源永远不处于危难境地的战略 .……     

A novel approach to the sequential extraction of plutonium from oxic and anoxic sediment using sodium citrate to inhibit post-extraction resorption

Sequential extraction has been used extensively to study the solid partitioning of radionuclides in soils and sediments. A difficulty with sequential extraction is that radionuclides released by a particular extractant can be resorbed and artificially redistributed amongst the remaining solid phases. Here, we describe experiments (on selected model phase and natural materials), which were designed to determine whether the inclusion of a chelating agent (sodium citrate) in an established sequential extraction protocol (a) inhibits post-extraction resorption of plutonium, (b) increases non-targeted dissolution of sediment phases, and (c) gives rise to unwanted ligand competition for plutonium. The results clearly demonstrate the capacity of citrate to inhibit the resorption of plutonium from the various extractants, and confirm that there is no discernible increase in non-targeted phase dissolution, but indicate significant ligand competition with the carbonate phase. The merits of using citrate are discussed and an optimised sequential extraction protocol that includes citrate is proposed. Finally, the protocol is applied to oxic and anoxic sediments sampled in the NE Irish Sea and the Roads of Cherbourg, and it is shown that the bulk of the plutonium on these sediments is associated with the more labile geochemical fractions.     

Changes in seed dispersal processes and the potential for between-patch connectivity for an arid land daisy

Dispersal is a major and critical process in population biology that has been particularly challenging to study. Animals can have major roles in seed dispersal even in species that do not appear specifically adapted to animal-aided dispersal. This can occur by two processes: direct movement of diaspores by animals and modification of landscape characteristics by animals in ways that greatly influence dispersal. We exploited the production of large, persistent dispersal structures (seed heads, henceforth) by Erodiophyllum elderi (Asteraceae), a daisy from arid Australia, to further understand secondary dispersal. Seed head dispersal on and off animal tracks in eight E. elderi patches was monitored for 9.5 months by periodically recording the location of marked seed heads. Sites were located inside a reserve that excludes sheep but not kangaroos, and in a nearby area with both kangaroos and sheep. The distance moved and likelihood of seed head movement was higher in areas with sheep, and especially along animal tracks. There was clear evidence that seed heads were channeled down animal tracks during large rainfall events. Seed head dispersal away from patches occurred to a limited extent via their physical contact with sheep and potentially via wind dispersal. Thus, the advantages of this study system allowed us to demonstrate the two postulated effects of herbivores on dispersal via direct movement of seed heads, and two distinct indirect effects through landscape modification by herbivores from the creation of animal tracks and the denudation of vegetation.     

A counterfactual approach to measure the impact of wet grassland conservation on U.K. breeding bird populations

Wet grassland populations of wading birds in the United Kingdom have declined severely since 1990. To help mitigate these declines, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds has restored and managed lowland wet grassland nature reserves to benefit these and other species. However, the impact of these reserves on bird population trends has not been evaluated experimentally due to a lack of control populations. We compared population trends from 1994 to 2018 among 5 bird species of conservation concern that breed on these nature reserves with counterfactual trends created from matched breeding bird survey observations. We compared reserve trends with 3 different counterfactuals based on different scenarios of how reserve populations could have developed in the absence of conservation. Effects of conservation interventions were positive for all 4 targeted wading bird species: Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), Redshank (Tringa totanus), Curlew (Numenius arquata), and Snipe (Gallinago gallinago). There was no positive effect of conservation interventions on reserves for the passerine, Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla flava). Our approach using monitoring data to produce valid counterfactual controls is a broadly applicable method allowing large-scale evaluation of conservation impact.