Biophysical suitability,economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R ² = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R ² = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage.     

Photochemical Smog Modeling for Assessment of Potential Impacts of Different Management Strategies on Air Quality of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region,Thailand

Abstract

A photochemical smog model system, the Variable-Grid Urban Airshed Model/Systems Applications International Mesoscale Model (UAM-V/SAIMM), was used to investigate photochemical pollution in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR). The model system was first applied to simulate a historical photochemical smog episode of two days (January 13-14, 1997) using the 1997 anthropogenic emission database available at the Pollution Control Department and an estimated biogenic emission. The output 1-hr ozone (O₃) for BMR, however, did not meet the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency suggested performance criteria. The simulated minimum and maximum O₃ values in the domain were much higher than the observations. Multiple model runs with different precursor emission reduction scenarios showed that the best model performance with the simulated 1-hr O₃ meeting all the criteria was obtained when the volatile organic compound (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) emission from mobile source reduced by 50% and carbon monoxide by 20% from the original database. Various combinations of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions in Bangkok and surrounding provinces were simulated to assess the contribution of different sources to O₃ pollution in the city. O₃ formation in Bangkok was found to be more VOC-sensitive than NO_x-sensitive. To attain the Thailand ambient air quality standard for 1-hr O₃ of 100 ppb, VOC emission in BMR should be reduced by 50-60%. Management strategies considered in the scenario study consist of Stage I, Stage II vapor control, replacement of two-stroke by four-stroke motorcycles, 100% compressed natural gas bus, 100% natural gas-fired power plants, and replacement of methyltertiarybutylether by ethanol as an additive for gasoline.     

Exposure assessment of lead to workers and children in the battery recycling craft village,Dong Mai,Vietnam

Human exposure to lead (Pb) due to uncontrolled Pb-acid battery recycling has been an environmental health issue in newly developed industrial regions. We conducted a human monitoring survey in Dong Mai, a battery recycling village in Vietnam, to assess exposure status to Pb. Lead level was measured in hair, blood and urine samples of residents in Dong Mai and two reference sites during 4 years spanning 2007–2011. In Dong Mai, Pb levels in three matrixes were significantly higher than those in reference sites. Blood Pb levels of all adults and children exceeded 10 μg/dL, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention definition of an elevated blood Pb level. Clear increase of urinary δ-aminolevulinic acid (ALA) level with increasing blood Pb level indicated disruption of heme synthesis. One adult exceeded 100 μg/dL of blood Pb, where encephalopathy is of concern. The blood Pb levels achieved various toxic effect threshold values, and elevated blood Pb was not limited to recycling workers, but was also in children and women of reproductive age. Serious pollution status of Dong Mai village suggests an importance of further monitoring surveys in various developing Asian countries.     

Endocrine stress response in Oreochromis sp. from exposure to waterborne cadmium: the plasma cortisol analysis

Cadmium (Cd) is known as one of the most dangerous environmental and industrial pollutants. It has no biological function and accumulates mainly in metabolically active tissue even at low concentrations, which in turn may cause tissue damage. The effect of Cd on the endocrine systems of fish is not well known. To test the hypothesis that Cd is a chemical stressor, Oreochromis sp. were exposed to waterborne cadmium chloride and their endocrine stress response (plasma cortisol) was investigated after 4 days and 20 days. The plasma cortisol levels were analyzed using reverse-phase high performance liquid chromatography with UV detection (λ = 250 nm) after liquid–liquid extraction. The detection limit of the method was found to be 0.87 ng/mL plasma. This study provides evidence that Cd probably causes exhaustion of endocrine systems. Oreochromis sp. exposure to Cd resulted in a 15%–53% and 52%–91% suppression of cortisol release after 4 days and 20 days of exposure, respectively, in comparison with the control group. The results suggest that Cd still activates the endocrine system at 20 days and the interrenal cells of Oreochromis sp. were not impaired after 20 days of exposure to Cd.     

Study of the Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality in the Upstream Portion of the Cau River Basin,Vietnam

This paper presents simulations of climate change impacts on water quality in the upstream portion of the Cau River Basin in the North of Vietnam. The integrated modeling system GIBSI was used to simulate hydrological processes, pollutant and sediment wash-off in the river basin, and pollutant transport and transformation in the river network. Three projections for climate change based on emission scenarios B1, B2, and A2 of IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were considered. By assuming that the input pollution sources and watershed configuration were constant, based on 2008 data, water quality in the river network was simulated up to the terminal year 2050. For each climate change scenario, patterns of precipitation in wet and dry year were considered. The change in annual and monthly trends for dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), and ammonium ions (NH4+) load and concentration for different portions of the watershed have been analyzed. The results of these simulations show that climate change has more impact on changing the seasonal water quality parameters than on altering the average annual load of the pollutants. The percent change and change pattern in water quality parameters are different for wet and dry year, and the changes in wet year are smaller than those in dry year.     

Nutrient ratios and the complex structure of phytoplankton communities in a highly turbid estuary of Southeast Asia

Phytoplankton diversity and abundance in estuarine systems are controlled by many factors. Salinity, turbidity, and inorganic nutrient concentrations and their respective ratios have all been proposed as principal factors that structure phytoplankton diversity and influence the emergence of potentially toxic species. Although much work has been conducted on temperate estuaries, less is known about how phytoplankton diversity is controlled in tropical, monsoonal systems that are subject to large, seasonal shifts in hydrology and to rapidly changing land use. Here, we present the results of an investigation into the factors controlling phytoplankton species composition and distribution in a tropical, monsoonal estuary (Bach Dang estuary, North Vietnam). A total of 245 taxa, 89 genera from six algal divisions were observed. Bacillariophyceae were the most diverse group contributing to 51.4 % of the microalgal assemblage, followed by Dinophyceae (29.8 %), Chlorophyceae (10.2 %), Cyanophyceae (3.7 %), Euglenophyceae (3.7 %) and Dictyochophyceae (1.2 %). The phytoplankton community was structured by inorganic nutrient ratios (DSi:DIP and DIN:DIP) as well as by salinity and turbidity. Evidence of a decrease in phytoplankton diversity concomitant with an increase in abundance and dominance of certain species (e.g., Skeletonema costatum) and the appearance of some potentially toxic species over the last two decades was also found. These changes in phytoplankton diversity are probably due to a combination of land use change resulting in changes in nutrient ratios and concentrations and global change as both rainfall and temperature have increased over the last two decades. It is therefore probable in the future that phytoplankton diversity will continue to change, potentially favoring the emergence of toxic species in this system.     

Impact of renewable energy on economic growth? Novel evidence from developing countries through MMQR estimations

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - This study aims to examine the association between economic growth and energy consumption (renewable and nonrenewable). The data was collected from 80...     

Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Current Farming Locations of Striped Catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus; Sauvage) in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

In Vietnam, culturing striped catfish makes an important contribution to the Mekong Delta’s economy. Water level rise during rainy season and salt intrusion during dry season affect the water exchange and quality for this culture. Sea level rise as a consequence of climate change will worsen these influences. In this study, water level rise and salt water intrusion for three sea level rise (SLR) scenarios (i.e., +30, +50, and +75 cm) were simulated. The results showed that at SLR +50, the 3-m-flood level would spread downstream and threaten farms located in AnGiang, DongThap and CanTho provinces. Rising salinity levels for SLR +75 would reduce the window appropriate for the culture in SocTrang and BenTre provinces, and in TienGiang’s coastal districts. Next to increasing dikes to reduce the impacts, the most tenable and least disruptive option to the farming community would be to shift to a salinity tolerant strain of catfish.     

Early prenatal diagnosis of genetic microcephaly

We report a new case of prenatal diagnosis of recessive microcephaly by ultrasound examination allowing termination of pregnancy at 25 weeks gestation.