Precaution,uncertainty and causation in environmental decisions

What measures of uncertainty and what causal analysis can improve the management of potentially severe, irreversible or dreaded environmental outcomes? Environmental choices show that policies intended to be precautionary (such as adding MTBE to petrol) can cause unanticipated harm (by mobilizing benzene, a known leukemogen, in the ground water). Many environmental law principles set the boundaries of what should be done but do not provide an operational construct to answer this question. Those principles, ranging from the precautionary principle to protecting human health from a significant risk of material health impairment, do not explain how to make environmental management choices when incomplete, inconsistent and complex scientific evidence characterizes potentially adverse environmental outcomes. Rather, they pass the task to lower jurisdictions such as agencies or authorities. To achieve the goals of the principle, those who draft it must deal with scientific casual conjectures, partial knowledge and variable data. In this paper we specifically deal with the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the European Union's (EU) explanation of consistency and on the examination of scientific developments relevant to variability and uncertain data and causation. Managing hazards under the precautionary principle requires inductive, empirical methods of assessment. However, acting on a scientific conjecture can also be socially unfair, costly, and detrimental when applied to complex environmental choices. We describe a constructive framework rationally to meet the command of the precautionary principle using alternative measures of uncertainty and recent statistical methods of causal analysis. These measures and methods can bridge the gap between conjectured future irreversible or severe harm and scant scientific evidence, thus leading to more confident and resilient social choices. We review two sets of measures and computational systems to deal with uncertainty and link them to causation through inductive empirical methods such as Bayesian Networks. We conclude that primary legislation concerned with large uncertainties and potential severe or dreaded environmental outcomes can produce accurate and efficient choices. To do so, primary legislation should specifically indicate what measures can represent uncertainty and how to deal with uncertain causation thus providing guidance to an agency's rulemaking or to an authority's writing secondary legislation. A corollary conclusion with legal, scientific and probabilistic implications concerns how to update past information when the state of information increases because a failure to update can result in regretting past choices. Elected legislators have the democratic mandate to formulate precautionary principles and are accountable. To preserve that mandate, imbedding formal methods to represent uncertainty in the statutory language of the precautionary principle enhances subsequent judicial review of legislative actions. The framework that we propose also reduces the Balkanized views and interpretations of probabilities, possibilities, likelihood and uncertainty that exists in environmental decision-making.     

Chlorpyrifos residues levels in fruits and vegetables after field treatment

Chlorpyrifos (O,O-diethyl O-3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridyl phosphorothioate) was applied with three different formulations on oranges, peaches, tomatoes, wine and table grapes, and its behaviour was evaluated after field treatment. The formulations applied were emulsifiable concentrates (EC), microencapsulates (ME), and wettable granules (WG). The residues were similar in all crops studied in the EC and WG experiments, except peaches with WG treatment, the residue amount was lower than EC values. Tomatoes which were grown in greenhouse showed similar residues in all treatments just after treatment. Wine and table grapes showed different decline curves in the EC experiments ascribable to the different growing technology. Instrumental limit of determination (LOD) and limit of quantification (LOQ) for all matrices were 0.01, and 0.03 mg kg?1, respectively. Repeated treatments showed that Chlorpyrifos can accumulate leading to residue levels at the preharvest interval (PHI) over the maximum residue level (MRL), especially on oranges and peaches. Among the formulates used ME showed the higher risk of residues over the MRL at harvest.     

Environmental odours assessment from waste treatment plants: dynamic olfactometry in combination with sensorial analysers "electronic noses"

After an overview about the criteria of odour nuisance in different technical laws, about electronic noses analysers and about dynamic olfactometry, in the present paper the authors describe an application of dynamic olfactometry in combination with the determinations of electronic noses. The coordination of the two approaches permits optimisation of the advantages offered by both methods to the measurable and objective evaluation of the odour nuisance from waste treatment plants and chemical plants.     

POPs in the Lagoon of Venice: budgets and pathways

Dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) in the ecosystem of the Lagoon of Venice were studied, in order to provide a general picture of conditions in the lagoon in terms of contamination by persistent organic pollutants (POPs). We present here novel data on atmospheric deposition, water, sediment and clam samples collected in the lagoon during the period January 2001-December 2004. Atmospheric deposition was sampled monthly at six sites located both close and far from large industrial and urban sources. Water samples were collected monthly from fifteen stations, and twenty-five samples of sediments and clams (Tapes philippinarum) were collected in four areas where clams are farmed and harvested inside the lagoon. All samples were analysed for PCDD/Fs, PCBs and HCB by HRGC/HRMS in the same laboratory. All samples examined (atmospheric deposition and water) substantially confirmed the spatial pattern reported in previously published data on sediments and atmospheric deposition: the zone surrounding the Porto Marghera petrochemical plant always had the highest levels of POPs (i.e., PCDD/Fs: atmosphere approximately 6 pg of 2,3,7,8-TCDD equivalents (I-TE) m(-2)d(-1); water 0.37 pg I-TEl(-1); sediment: 300 ng kg(-1); clam 2.8 pg I-TE g(-1)), and the minima were found at points on the margins of the lagoon (PCDD/Fs: atmosphere approximately 1 pg I-TEm(-2)d(-1); water 0.05 pg I-TEl(-1); sediment: approximately 5 ng kg(-1); clam approximately 0.2 pg I-TE g(-1)). Intermediate values were often encountered in the historical city centre of Venice and in the central part of the lagoon. To confirm this, new data on correlation between levels of PCDD/F in sediments and clams are reported, both for absolute values and for the PCDD/F "fingerprint". There is always a clear fingerprinting signature (PCDF/PCDD>1) for samples collected near Porto Marghera, and the opposite (PCDF/PCDD<1) in the rest of the lagoon.     

Is the diversity of epiphytic lichens a reliable indicator of air pollution? A case study from Italy

This work provided additional information for a better interpretation of lichen diversity values in biomonitoring studies of air pollution. The effects of 12 predictive variables were estimated for the Genova province (NW Italy) by means of a non-parametric model. The diversity of epiphytic lichens was strictly correlated with mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature. Different variables were found to affect the lichen diversity in urban vs. forested areas. In urban areas, air pollutants, mainly SO2, are still the main limiting factor, even if under ameliorating conditions this relationship becomes less significant. In forested areas, harvesting and forest fires showed a predominant effect, suggesting the need to develop a more defined sampling protocol to estimate atmospheric pollution in such ecosystems.     

Estimation of uncertainty arising from different soil sampling devices: the use of variogram parameters

In the frame of the international SOILSAMP project, funded and coordinated by the National Environmental Protection Agency of Italy (APAT), uncertainties due to field soil sampling were assessed. Three different sampling devices were applied in an agricultural area using the same sampling protocol. Cr, Sc and Zn mass fractions in the collected soil samples were measured by k(0)-instrumental neutron activation analysis (k(0)-INAA). For each element-device combination the experimental variograms were calculated using geostatistical tools. The variogram parameters were used to estimate the standard uncertainty arising from sampling. The sampling component represents the dominant contribution of the measurement uncertainty with a sampling uncertainty to measurement uncertainty ratio ranging between 0.6 and 0.9. The approach based on the use of variogram parameters leads to uncertainty values of the sampling component in agreement with those estimated by replicate sampling approach.     

Validation and global uncertainty of a gas chromatographic with mass spectrometry method for fenamidone analysis in grapes and wines

Fenamidone is an imidazolinone fungicide recently introduced in viticulture practices. This work reports the validation and assessment of global uncertainty of a gas chromatographic with mass spectrometry method to analyze fenamidone in grapes and wines. This method consists in a simple and fast liquid-liquid extraction step followed by chromatographic determination. Limits of detection for fenamidone in grapes and wines were, respectively, 0.05 mg/kg and 0.06 mg/L, precision was below 9.4% and average recovery was 89 +/- 5%. In the concentration range from 0.05 to 1.00 mg/kg (or mg/L) of fenamidone, global uncertainty calculated following the EURACHEM/CITAC rules, and also by the Horwitz function, was below 25%. The EURACHEM/CITAC global uncertainty budget used gave lower estimates than those obtained from the Horwitz function.     

Effect of modified Fenton treatment on the thermal behavior of contaminated harbor sediments

This study presents the results of experimental Fenton-like treatments conducted on marine sediment slurries (2g sediment vs. 20 ml liquid). The sediment was collected in a harbor situated in a high density industrial area, characterized by a great hydrocarbon C>12 and PAHs contamination. The investigated parameters were: the H(2)O(2) dose, the reagent's pH and the effect of a phosphate salt and ferrous iron addition. To evaluate sediment's characteristics COD, particle size, thermogravimetric and differential thermal analyses were performed under N(2) and O(2) atmosphere while dissolved organic carbon and COD analyses were performed on the filtrate. Results indicate that the treatment was able to change the organic matter to a less hydrophobic state, to destroy part of the organic carbon (up to 78% decrease of the 200-400 degrees C labile organic matter), to lower the COD of the sediment (60% COD removal maximum) and to increase the cumulated distribution undersize. In addition as the treated sediment showed easier-to-handle characteristics, reduced caking and lower aggregation capacity, the modified Fenton treatment could also be considered a pre-treatment of a successive thermal treatment.     

Generation of PCDD/F in Fly Ash from Municipal Solid Waste Incinerators

Abstract

Fly ash from municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWIs) has been characterized in terms of polychlorinated dibenzyl-p-dioxin and polychlorinated dibenzofuran (PCDD/F) content. Increasing values of PCDD/Fs have been found to correlate with decreasing temperatures of sampling points in flue gas treatment lines of the plants, confirming other researchers’ findings about temperature as the major controlling parameter for the PCDD/F formation. Measured PCDD/F ratios show that de novo synthesis is the dominant formation mechanism. The increasing trends of particulate-bound PCDD/Fs can be explained not only through the dominant de novo synthesis process but also considering the adsorption of gaseous PCDD/Fs on fly ash deposits, even outside the typical de novo synthesis temperature ranges. The effective role of a post-combustor unit, imposed by Italian law to destroy PCDD/Fs, also needs to be carefully reconsidered.