Morbidity and pollution: Model specification analysis for time-series data on hospital admissions

Time-series analysis of effects of pollutants on emergency hospital admissions indicates important synergistic interactions among pollutants and to a lesser degree nonlinearities in effects of single pollutants. Comparisons of alternative econometric specifications are made to determine the appropriateness of incorporating nonuniform pollution impacts. The data substantially support the existence of synergisms among pollutants with high levels of sulfur dioxide, SO₂ (particulates), increasing the impact of particulates (SO₂) on emergency hospital admissions. Marginal effects of either pollutant are, however, small at current ambient air quality levels. These results indicate that damage estimates were likely to be understated during the 1960's when pollution levels were high, while, at current levels of those pollutants considered here, marginal damages are lower than would be estimated in studies failing to incorporate synergistic and nonlinear impacts.     

吹扫-捕集/气相色谱/质谱分析水中挥发性有机化合物

吹扫 捕集与气相色谱 /质谱联用分析水中挥发性有机化合物是使用最为广泛的一种技术 .取 5ml水样 ,大多数目标化合物可在 0 5 μg·l- 1 或更低的浓度被定量 .如果取 2 5ml水样 ,就能得到更高的检测灵敏度 .安捷伦公司吹扫 捕集 /气相色谱 /质谱联用系统以其可靠的性能、高灵敏度和简单易用而在全球范围得到用户的认可 .同时安捷伦公司可提供专为分析环境中挥发性化合物而设计的软件、消耗品及气相色谱柱 ,能够保证任何一间实验室得到高质量、可靠的分析实验数据 .     

Sex, intimidation and severed limbs: the effect of simulated predator attack and limb autotomy on calling and emergence behaviour in the field cricket Gryllus bimaculatus

Crickets can autotomize a limb in order to evade predation; however, this autotomy compromises their escape speed and, therefore, their ability to avoid subsequent predation events. We recorded two measures of predator-avoidance behaviour in field crickets (Gryllus bimaculatus) exposed to varying levels of predation threat, with the most extreme level leading to autotomy of a limb. Our first measure of caution was time to emergence from cover, which was affected by perceived predation treatment, with both autotomized males and females being significantly more cautious than intact individuals. For males (but not females), the presence of a calling conspecific encouraged earlier emergence. Our second measure of caution was alteration of male calling behaviour. Autotomized males remained silent for significantly longer time after disturbance than intact males, but there was no difference in call rate once they had resumed calling, suggesting that behavioural changes were not merely a result of injury response but a controlled modification of behaviour as a result of autotomy. These data suggest that autotomy in field crickets results in altered calling behaviour, which was not significantly altered with different acoustic environments.     

A Bayesian strategy for combining predictions from empirical and process-based models

We present a strategy for using an empirical forest growth model to reduce uncertainty in predictions made with a physiological process-based forest ecosystem model. The uncertainty reduction is carried out via Bayesian melding, in which information from prior knowledge and a deterministic computer model is conditioned on a likelihood function. We used predictions from an empirical forest growth model G-HAT in place of field observations of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in a deciduous temperate forest ecosystem. Using Bayesian melding, priors for the inputs of the process-based forest ecosystem PnET-II were propagated through the model, and likelihoods for the PnET-II output ANPP were calculated using the G-HAT predictions. Posterior distributions for ANPP and many PnET-II inputs obtained using the G-HAT predictions largely matched posteriors obtained using field data. Since empirical growth models are often more readily available than extensive field data sets, the method represents a potential gain in efficiency for reducing the uncertainty of process-based model predictions when reliable empirical models are available but high-quality data are not.     

Independent effects of fragmentation on forest songbirds: an organism-based approach.

The degree to which spatial patterns influence the dynamics and distribution of populations is a central question in ecology. This question is even more pressing in the context of rapid habitat loss and fragmentation, which threaten global biodiversity. However, the relative influence of habitat loss and landscape fragmentation, the spatial patterning of remaining habitat, remains unclear. If landscape pattern affects population size, managers may be able to design landscapes that mitigate habitat loss. We present the results of a mensurative experiment designed to test four habitat loss vs. fragmentation hypotheses. Unlike previous studies, we measured landscape structure using quantitative, spatially explicit habitat distribution models previously developed for two species: Blackburnian Warbler (Dendroica fusca) and Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla). We used a stratified sampling design that reduced the confounding of habitat amount and fragmentation variables. Occurrence and reoccurrence of both species were strongly influenced by characteristics at scales greater than the individual territory, indicating little support for the random-sample hypothesis. However, the type and spatial extent of landscape influence differed. Both occurrence and reoccurrence of Blackburnian Warblers were influenced by the amount of poor-quality matrix at 300- and 2000-m spatial extents. The occurrence and reoccurrence of Ovenbirds depended on a landscape pattern variable, patch size, but only in cases when patches were isolated. These results support the hypothesis that landscape pattern is important for some species only when the amount of suitable habitat is low. Although theoretical models have predicted such an interaction between landscape fragmentation and composition, to our knowledge this is the first study to report empirical evidence of such nonlinear fragmentation effects. Defining landscapes quantitatively from an organism-based perspective may increase power to detect fragmentation effects, particularly in forest mosaics where boundaries between patches and matrix are ambiguous. Our results indicate that manipulating landscape pattern may reduce negative impacts of habitat loss for Ovenbird, but not Blackburnian Warbler. We emphasize that most variance in the occurrence of both species was explained by local scale or landscape composition variables rather than variables reflecting landscape pattern.     

Accounting for time in Mitigating Global Warming through land-use change and forestry

Many proposed activities formitigating global warming in the land-use change and forestry(LUCF) sector differ from measures to avoid fossilfuel emissions because carbon (C) may be held out ofthe atmosphere only temporarily. In addition, thetiming of the effects is usually different. Many LUCFactivities alter C fluxes to and from the atmosphereseveral decades into the future, whereas fossil fuelemissions avoidance has immediate effects. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are animportant part of emissions from deforestation inlow-latitude regions, also pose complications forcomparisons between fossil fuel and LUCF, since themechanism generally used to compare these gases(global warming potentials) assumes simultaneousemissions. A common numeraire is needed to expressglobal warming mitigation benefits of different kindsof projects, such as fossil fuel emissions reduction,C sequestration in forest plantations, avoideddeforestation by creating protected areas and throughpolicy changes to slow rates of land-use changes suchas clearing. Megagram (Mg)-year (also known as`ton-year') accounting provides a mechanism forexpressing the benefits of activities such as these ona consistent basis. One can calculate the atmosphericload of each GHG that will be present in each year,expressed as C in the form of CO₂ and itsinstantaneous impact equivalent contributed by othergases. The atmospheric load of CO₂-equivalent Cpresent over a time horizon is a possible indicator ofthe climatic impact of the emission that placed thisload in the atmosphere. Conversely, this index alsoprovides a measure of the benefit of notproducing the emission. One accounting methodcompares sequestered CO₂ in trees with theCO₂ that would be in the atmosphere had thesequestration project not been undertaken, whileanother method (used in this paper) compares theatmospheric load of C (or equivalent in non-CO₂GHGs) in both project and no-project scenarios.Time preference, expressed by means of a discount rateon C, can be applied to Mg-year equivalencecalculations to allow societal decisions regarding thevalue of time to be integrated into the system forcalculating global warming impacts and benefits. Giving a high value to time, either by raising thediscount rate or by shortening the time horizon,increases the value attributed to temporarysequestration (such as many forest plantationprojects). A high value for time also favorsmitigation measures that have rapid effects (such asslowing deforestation rates) as compared to measuresthat only affect emissions years in the future (suchas creating protected areas in countries with largeareas of remaining forest). Decisions on temporalissues will guide mitigation efforts towards optionsthat may or may not be desirable on the basis ofsocial and environmental effects in spheres other thanglobal warming. How sustainable development criteriaare incorporated into the approval and creditingsystems for activities under the Kyoto Protocol willdetermine the overall environmental and social impactsof pending decisions on temporal issues.     

Implications of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein elevation caused by transabdominal and transcervical CVS

Of 2882 women allocated to either transabdominal CVS (TA) or transcervical CVS (TC) at two large obstetric centres in Denmark, 2707 had blood samples drawn before and 30 min after CVS for maternal serum-alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) measurement. 2535 of these women had cytogenetically normal pregnancies and 2091 of them went on to have samples drawn at the 18–20 week follow-up. Post-procedure MSAFP values were correlated to the biopsy method used, with mean MSAFP values significantly higher after TA than TC, 33 and 15 kU/l, respectively (P<0·001). Following TA procedures, 18 per cent of cases had feto-maternal transfusion higher than 0·1 ml; this occurred in only 5 per cent of TC cases. MSAFP levels were associated with spontaneous fetal loss in the TA group but not in the TC group. TC, however, was followed by more losses than TA. The post-CVS MSAFP value was positively correlated with the amount of villi aspirated. The difference in post-procedure elevation in MSAFP 30 min later (average 18 kU/l higher for TA than for TC) was not reflected in raised levels at the 18–20 week follow-up. Study medians at mid-trimester did not differ from reference group medians established from a group of singleton pregnancies with sonographically determined gestational age who did not experience invasive procedures and delivered normal infants. Our findings suggest that CVS does not compromise mid-trimester MSAFP for screening for neural tube defects (NTDs). Extremely high mid-trimester MSAFP values in the TC group could predict imminent loss.     

Cycads: their evolution,toxins, herbivores and insect pollinators

Palaeobiological evidence indicates that gymnosperms were wind-pollinated and that insect pollination began in angiosperms in the Lower Cretaceous (ca. 135 mya) leading to close associations between higher plants and their pollinators. Cycads, which were widespread and pervasive throughout the Mesozoic (250-65 mya) are among the most primitive living seed-plants found today. Because pollination by beetles and by thrips has now been detected in several modern cycads, it is attractive to speculate that some insects and cycads had already developed similar mutualistic interactions in the Triassic (250-205 mya), long before the advent of angiosperms. We also draw attention to another key factor in this insect-plant relationship, namely secondary, defensive plant substances which must always have controlled interspecific interactions. Cycads mainly produce toxic azoglucosides and neurotoxic non-protein amino acids (e.g. BMAA), which apparently are crucial elements in the development and maintenance of mutualism (pollination) and parasitism (herbivory) by cycad-linked herbivores. We now add new results on the uptake and storage of the main toxin, cycasin, of the Mexican cycad Zamia furfuracea by its pollinator, the weevil Rhopalotria mollis, and by a specialist herbivore of Zamia integrifolia, the aposematic Atala butterfly Eumaeus atala.