Development of tiger habitat suitability model using geospatial tools—a case study in Achankmar Wildlife Sanctuary (AMWLS), Chhattisgarh India

Geospatial tools supported by ancillary geo-database and extensive fieldwork regarding the distribution of tiger and its prey in Anchankmar Wildlife Sanctuary (AMWLS) were used to build a tiger habitat suitability model. This consists of a quantitative geographical information system (GIS) based approach using field parameters and spatial thematic information. The estimates of tiger sightings, its prey sighting and predicted distribution with the assistance of contextual environmental data including terrain, road network, settlement and drainage surfaces were used to develop the model. Eight variables in the dataset viz., forest cover type, forest cover density, slope, aspect, altitude, and distance from road, settlement and drainage were seen as suitable proxies and were used as independent variables in the analysis. Principal component analysis and binomial multiple logistic regression were used for statistical treatments of collected habitat parameters from field and independent variables respectively. The assessment showed a strong expert agreement between the predicted and observed suitable areas. A combination of the generated information and published literature was also used while building a habitat suitability map for the tiger. The modeling approach has taken the habitat preference parameters of the tiger and potential distribution of prey species into account. For assessing the potential distribution of prey species, independent suitability models were developed and validated with the ground truth. It is envisaged that inclusion of the prey distribution probability strengthens the model when a key species is under question. The results of the analysis indicate that tiger occur throughout the sanctuary. The results have been found to be an important input as baseline information for population modeling and natural resource management in the wildlife sanctuary. The development and application of similar models can help in better management of the protected areas of national interest.     

Formaldehyde Dose-Response in Healthy Nonsmokers

Industrial, commercial, and domestic levels of formaldehyde exposure range from <0.1 to >5.0 ppm. Irritation of the eyes and upper respiratory tract predominate, and bronchoconstriction is described in case reports. However, pulmonary function and irritant symptoms together have not been assessed over a range of HCHO concentrations in a controlled environment. We investigated dose response in both symptoms and pulmonary function associated with 3-h exposures to 0.0-3.0 ppm HCHO in a controlled environmental chamber. Ten subjects were randomly exposed to 0.0, 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 ppm HCHO at rest plus 2.0 ppm HCHO with exercise and nine additional subjects were randomly exposed to 0.0,1.0,2.0, and 3.0 ppm HCHO at rest plus 2.0 ppm HCHO with exercise. Significant dose-response relationships in odor and eye irritation were observed (p < 0.05). Nasal flow resistance was increased at 3.0 ppm (p < 0.01), but not at 2.0 ppm HCHO. There were no significant decrements in pulmonary function (FVC, FEV₁, FEF_25-75%, SGaw) or increases in bronchial reactivity to methacholine (log PD_35SGaw) with exposure to 0.5-3.0 ppm HCHO at rest or to 2.0 ppm HCHO with exercise.     

The effects of partial mortality on the fecundity of three common Caribbean corals

The recent intensification of human disturbances in the Caribbean has increased the prevalence of partial mortality on coral colonies. Partial mortality can change colony size by directly shrinking colonies or by splitting colonies into fragments. A reduction in colony size can also adversely affect fecundity and fitness as internal resources shift away from reproduction toward colony maintenance. This study aimed to determine whether three Caribbean coral species, Siderastrea siderea, Montastraea faveolata, and Diploria strigosa, along the reef tract in Puerto Morelos, Mexico (20^o52′N, 86^o51′W), continued to dedicate resources to reproduction when colonies were fragmented to pre-maturation size. Contrary to expectations, eggs were found in colonies that were smaller than the maturation size and had been subjected to partial mortality. The continued dedication of resources toward reproduction, even in the smallest colonies, suggests that resource trade-offs away from reproduction are not as rigid as previously suggested in stressed corals.     

Predicting the biological condition of streams: use of geospatial indicators of natural and anthropogenic characteristics of watersheds

We developed and evaluated empirical models to predict biological condition of wadeable streams in a large portion of the eastern USA, with the ultimate goal of prediction for unsampled basins. Previous work had classified (i.e., altered vs. unaltered) the biological condition of 920 streams based on a biological assessment of macroinvertebrate assemblages. Predictor variables were limited to widely available geospatial data, which included land cover, topography, climate, soils, societal infrastructure, and potential hydrologic modification. We compared the accuracy of predictions of biological condition class based on models with continuous and binary responses. We also evaluated the relative importance of specific groups and individual predictor variables, as well as the relationships between the most important predictors and biological condition. Prediction accuracy and the relative importance of predictor variables were different for two subregions for which models were created. Predictive accuracy in the highlands region improved by including predictors that represented both natural and human activities. Riparian land cover and road-stream intersections were the most important predictors. In contrast, predictive accuracy in the lowlands region was best for models limited to predictors representing natural factors, including basin topography and soil properties. Partial dependence plots revealed complex and nonlinear relationships between specific predictors and the probability of biological alteration. We demonstrate a potential application of the model by predicting biological condition in 552 unsampled basins across an ecoregion in southeastern Wisconsin (USA). Estimates of the likelihood of biological condition of unsampled streams could be a valuable tool for screening large numbers of basins to focus targeted monitoring of potentially unaltered or altered stream segments.     

Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

Although generally misunderstood, the p value is the probability of the test results or more extreme results given H₀ is true: it is not the probability of H₀ being true given the results. To obtain directly useful insight about H₀, the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) may be useful extensions of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). They provide information about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes being true based on an a priori defined biologically meaningful effect size. The present study explores the utility of PPV and NPV in an ecotoxicological context by using the frequently applied Daphnia magna reproduction test (OECD guideline 211) and the chemical stressor lindane as a model system. The results indicate that especially the NPV deviates meaningfully between a test design strictly following the guideline and an experimental procedure controlling for α and β at the level of 0.05. Consequently, PPV and NPV may be useful supplements to NHST that inform the researcher about the level of confidence warranted by both statistically significant and non-significant test results. This approach also reinforces the value of considering α, β, and a biologically meaningful effect size a priori.     

VOC Emission Controls for Can End Sealing Compounds

Regulations require that emissions of VOC from the application of can end sealing compounds be limited to 440 grams per liter. One can manufacturer has investigated the cost and feasibility of a VOC capture/control system and the availability and efficacy of water-based and high solids end sealing compounds. After characterizing and optimizing VOC evaporation rates, a prototype VOC containment system was tested on one can end sealing compound line. An 83 percent VOC capture efficiency was obtained at approximately 950 acfm. A cost analysis for a full facility capture and control system gave cost-effectiveness values of $1.21 to $2.36 per pound of VOC controlled. An evaluation oflow-VOC end sealing compounds, including long term pack tests, produced a water-based compound that could be implemented on pet food can ends by early 1986. Continuation of pack tests could allow full facility conversion to zero VOC water-based compounds by mid- to late-1987. Using an innovative averaging technique, the can manufacturer has achieved equivalent compliance with the 440 grams per liter standard.     

Perception of earthquake risk in Agadir,Morocco: A case study from a Muslim community

Earthquakes are separated from other hazards in meaning, significance, and risk perception throughout the Islamic World due to their specific focus in their own chapter or surah “al-Zalzala” (99th) in the Qur'an. Unlike earthquakes that are discussed in terms or the Judgment Day or as divine punishment or retribution against the disbelieving or hypocritical—other natural hazards like floods, tornadoes, and landslides are rarely discussed. An extensive survey of earthquake survivors and longtime residents was undertaken to better understand the perceptions of seismic risk in Agadir, Morocco where two moderate earthquakes razed the city in 1960 leaving 15,000 dead and 25,000 injured. Most of the deaths were attributed to faulty construction (along with standards and enforcement), inaddition to poor evacuation plans.

During the summer of 2002, more than 250 earthquake survivors and residents were surveyed and interviewed for their knowledge and perception of the disaster forty years before. Surveys were conducted in Arabic, French and English and included questions and Likertscaled responses including extensive interviews in the hopes of obtaining ideas of their potential quake recurrence, seismology, current construction standard policies, and local and regional planning strategies. In addition, reviews the Qur'an, Hadith and classical and contemporary tafasir texts were used to investigate the guiding passages used in Islamic discussions of “al-Zalzala”.

It was found that younger persons (<25yo) were more likely to believed that brick, mortar and cement structures were always safer and stronger during and after a tremor, regardless as to whether they are iron-reinforced or sub-standard (and hazardous) stone or brick infilled. After the 1960 disaster, speedy recovery efforts often undermined concrete construction and reinforcement techniques since such ‘rebar’ was relatively unavailable. Even today, inferior and seismically unstable construction practices are widely used.

It was found that television-watchers considered themselves less knowledgeable about earthquakes, when in fact many aspects of the1960 event and earthquakes in general, were more widely understood by this group, supporting the notion that the medium of televisionis the most widely used, efficient, and fastest mass communication and education tool.

Less-educated respondents in general tended to attribute earthquakes to divine action and retribution. All questions, however, concerning the possibility of quake recurrence frequency or magnitude caused an overwhelming refusal to answer, or with the reply of ‘Allahu a'lam’ or “God is wisest”—implying or directly stating that any attempt at earthquake forecasting, quake-related construction, advanced architectural standards for seismic safety, and/or related education was ‘haram’ or prohibited by Islam.

Further discussions with participants in Agadir indicated that any guess, awareness or prediction was in fact, fortune-telling and therefore an act forbidden by the Qur'an and Hadith.

Finally, the less educated were more likely to say that Allah protected those who were devout and considered scientific assessment as futile, forecasting as forbidden, or new construction technologies as a waste since only the ‘kafir’ (non-Muslim) or ‘munafiq’ (hypocrite) were at risk to death or injury from an earthquake. These conclusions are important toward gaining an insight of perception and risky behavior in a questionably constructed city with now more than 600,000 people 40 years later, and in a region laced by active faulting.     

Population structure of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the western Pacific Ocean, inferred from microsatellite loci

Five polymorphic microsatellite loci were examined in 1391 yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) from eight regions of the western (Coral Sea, eastern Australia, Fiji, Indonesia, Philippines and Solomon Islands) and eastern (California and Mexico ) Pacific Ocean. Across all samples, numbers of alleles per locus ranged from 7 to 30 (mean: 17.0), and observed heterozygosities per locus ranged from 0.223 to 0.955 (mean: 0.593). Temporal collections were available for three areas: no significant temporal heterogeneity was observed for the Coral Sea (1991/1992 and 1995/1996 collections) or eastern Australia (1994/1995, 1995/1996, 1996/1997 and 1997/1998), but there was slight but significant heterogeneity at one locus (cmrTa-161) between the two Philippines collections (1994/1995 and 1996/1997). Genotypes generally showed a good fit to Hardy-Weinberg expectations within populations; only cmrTa-208 in the pooled Coral Sea population gave a significant deviation after Bonferroni correction for 40 tests, with a small but significant excess of homozygotes. Four loci showed no evidence of population differentiation following contingency Chi-squared and F_ST analyses. The fifth locus, cmrTa-161, showed small but significant differentiation (F_ST=0.002, P<0.001). This heterogeneity was largely a result of the Philippines 1994/1995 and Fiji collections; there was no correlation with geographic distance. The average F_ST across all five loci was very low (F_ST=0.002), but it was significant (P<0.001). It is unclear whether this low but significant differentiation reflects noise in the dataset, perhaps arising from experimental error, or real population differentiation. The finding of very limited population heterogeneity accords with most of the earlier allozyme and mitochondrial DNA studies of yellowfin tuna in the Pacific Ocean.     

An assessment of fluoride in the coastal aquifer of the Bara tract in Bharuch district, Gujarat (India)

The fluoride (F) concentration in the coastal aquifers of Bara tract in Bharuch district, Gujarat was determined by potentiometric method using an ion-selective electrode. The fluoride concentration in these aquifers varies between 0.060 to 3.51 mg/L. It was also found that F has a positive correlation with pH and HCO(3)(-) whereas negatively correlated with Ca(2+), indicating that high fluoride in ground water is associated with low calcium content. This suggests that the higher pH of water promotes the leaching of fluoride and thus affects the concentration of fluoride in the ground water. It was also found that there exists no relationship between F, EC, and ground water table from surface in the ground water.