APPLICATION OF KRIGING TO ESTIMATING MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN A REGION OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE1

ABSTRACT: Estimates of mean annual precipitation (MAP) over areas are the starting point for all computations of water and chemical balances for drainage basins and surface water bodies. Any errors in the estimates of MAP are propagated through the balance computations. These errors can be due to: (1) failures of individual gages to collect the amount of precpitation that actually falls; (2) operator errors; and (3) failure of the raingage network to adequately sample the region of interest. This paper attempts to evaluate the last of these types of error by applying kriging in two different approaches to estimating MAP in New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. The data base is the 1951–1980 normal precipitation at 120 raingages in the two states and in adjacent portions of bordering states and provinces. In the first approach, kriging is applied directly to the MAP values, while in the second, kriging is applied to a “precipitation delivery factor” that represents the MAP with the orographic effect removed. The first approach gives slightly better kriged estimates of MAP at seven validation stations that were not included in the original analysis, but results in an error surface that is highly contorted and in larger maximum errors over most of the region. The second approach had a considerably smoother error surface and, thus, is generally preferable as a basis for point and areal estimates of MAP. MAP estimates in the region have 95 percent confidence intervals of about 20 cm/yr at low and moderate elevations, and up to 35 cm/yr at high elevations. These uncertainties amount to about 20 percent of estimated MAP values.     

Evaluation of a fluorometric method for measuring low concentrations of ammonia in ambient air

A fluorometric method developed for measuring low concentrations of ammonium in marine and freshwater ecosystems was adapted for the analysis of ammonia in ambient air. The modified method entails collection of samples on an acid-treated solid adsorbent followed by analysis using a fluorometer. Optimal results were obtained using a commercially available sorbent tube containing 100 mg of acid-treated silica gel for sample collection, and an analytical protocol consisting of sample desorption in DI water, addition of orthopthaldialdehyde (OPA) working reagent, and room temperature incubation. Method accuracy and precision were evaluated by comparing experimentally determined quantities of ammonia to expected levels for sample loadings ranging from 0.16 [micro sign]g to 550 [micro sign]g-accuracy was generally within +/-20%. The estimated LOQ for the method is 0.08 [micro sign]g ammonia per sample which represents a 25-375-fold improvement in sensitivity compared to current NIOSH and OSHA methods for the measurement of ammonia in ambient air. The new method should be useful for applications requiring measurement of low concentrations of ammonia using personal sampling equipment or in the characterization of short-term fluctuations of ammonia concentrations in air.     

A REVIEW OF APPLICATION ISSUES OF THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT-MAIN WATER FORECASTING SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: This paper reviews the processes that occurred during an application of the Metropolitan Water District (MWD)-MAIN water use forecasting system for the City of Salinas, California. The review includes an analysis of sources of available data, methods for estimating input data, calibration, and verification of the MWD-MAIN System, and an evaluation of the reliability of system output. We found that inexperienced users can have difficulty understanding the level of skill, knowledge, and amount of data that are required to produce reliable forecasts. Some of the issues associated with application of the MWD-MAIN System include the following:

• ? All input data needed for accurate forecasts simply are not available for many cities and towns.
• ? The data requirements are more extensive than many users anticipate.
• ? Substantial requirements for manipulation of input data produces opportunity for error that creates major time demands in troubleshooting.
• ? Calibration and verification for specific uses can be substantially more difficult than is readily apparent from the guidance manual.
• ? Independent validity checks need to be done to validate system output.
• ? If specified calibrating procedures do not produce reasonable results, reestimating slope coefficients is an option, but this requires resources and expertise that can easily exceed the limits of most users.

These are problems typical of most complex models. Reviews such as this can help users to appreciate the level of data required, and to use the MWD-MAIN System in a more effective and efficient manner.     

A conceptual model of spatially heterogeneous nitrogen leaching from a welsh moorland catchment

Soil- and stream-water data from the Plynlimon research area, mid-Wales, have been used to develop a conceptual model of spatial variations in nitrogen (N) leaching within moorland catchments. Extensive peats, in both hilltop and valley locations, are considered near-complete sinks for inorganic N, but leach the most dissolved organic nitrogen (DON). Peaty mineral soils on hillslopes also retain inorganic N within upper organic horizons, but a proportion percolates into mineral horizons as nitrate (NO^? ₃), either through incomplete immobilisation in the organic layer, or in water bypassing the organic soil matrix via macropores. This NO^? ₃ reaches the stream where mineral soilwaters discharge (via matrix throughflow or pipeflow) directly to the drainage network, or via small N-enriched flush wetlands. NO^? ₃ in hillslope waters discharging into larger valley wetlands will be removed before reaching the stream. A concept of catchment ‘nitrate leaching zones’ is proposed, whereby most stream NO^? ₃ derives from localised areas of mineral soil hillslope draining directly to the stream; the extent of these zones within a catchment may thus determine its overall susceptibility to elevated surface water NO^? ₃ concentrations.     

CULTURAL EVOLUTION AND WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY1

ABSTRACT: This article reports the findings of a case study of a major California water management district's effort to change its management approach. The following key findings and factors have influenced the Salinas basin management plan (BMP) and its progress: (1) the Salinas Valley is an economy dominated by highly sophisticated irrigated agriculture dependent on ground water; (2) a persistent pattern of agricultural overdraft of ground water has hurt growers primarily in the north end of the valley via induced saline intrusion of irrigation wells; (3) a complex set of water institutions, property and water rights, and land lease practices offer little incentive for good stewardship of land and water; and (4) the BMP approach initially may have intensified tension among growers and between growers and other water user groups. Water rules and practices in the Salinas Valley and Monterey County have evolved through a long historical process of adaptations. Therefore, any significant changes in local water use practices need to be understood in terms of cultural change, that is, changes in deeply held values, beliefs, and assumptions. We believe the BMP and the MCWRA are succeeding when evaluated from this evolutionary perspective. The fact that both still exist relatively intact testifies that they are working, albeit slowly.     

Modeling the effects of emission controls in the Netherlands

A photochemical air quality simulation model was applied to an area covering a large portion of The Netherlands and nearby source areas in Belgium and Germany. Simulations of an O₃ episode typical of those that occur during summer months yielded good agreement between predicted and observed O₃ levels. The level of performance for NO₂ and NO was somewhat less than that for O₃. The model was used to study the influence of mobile and stationary sources within the region, as well as the inflow of pollutants from outside the region on predicted O₃, NO₂, and NO levels within the modeling region. Pollutants transported into the region appear to have a significant influence on O₃ levels. The influence of stationary source emissions on O₃ and NO₂ levels is greater than that of mobile source emissions. The model has been a valuable tool in evaluating the possible influence of different source categories and control regulations on pollutant concentration levels.     

The patchiness of epifoliar fungi in tropical forests: host range, host abundance, and environment

Fungal symbioses affect the diversity, dynamics, and spatial patterns of trees in tropical forests. Their ecological importance is partly driven by their inherent patchiness. We used epifoliar fungi, a guild of common, benign, obligate, fungal symbionts of plants, as a model system to evaluate the relative importance of host phylogeny, host relative abundance, and microclimate on the three-dimensional distribution of plant-fungus symbioses. In parallel studies in rainforests in Panama and Australia, most epifoliar fungi were able to colonize several plant lineages but showed significant host preferences within the local plant community. More closely related plant species were not more likely to share fungal symbionts. Instead, fungal species were more likely to be shared by more abundant hosts, which supported a greater number and diversity of fungi. Environmental conditions strongly affected spatial distributions, with sites in the dark understory 2.5- to fourfold more likely to have epifoliar fungi than in the exposed forest canopy. In the understory, fungal incidence increased with canopy openness. Canopy trees supported only a subset of the fungal symbionts found in the understory, suggesting that adult trees are not reservoirs of these fungal symbionts for understory juveniles.