A quantitative risk assessment tool for the external safety of industrial plants with a dust explosion hazard

A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) tool has been developed by TNO for the external safety of industrial plants with a dust explosion hazard. As a first step an industrial plant is divided into groups of modules, defined by their size, shape, and constructional properties. Then the relevant explosion scenarios are determined, together with their frequency of occurrence. These include scenarios in which one module participates, as well as domino scenarios. The frequency is partly based on casuistry.

A typical burning velocity is determined depending on the ignition type, the dust properties and the local conditions for flame acceleration. The resulting pressure development is predicted with the ‘thin flame model’. Module failure occurs when the explosion load exceeds thresholds, which are derived from single degree of freedom (SDOF) calculations for various types of modules. A model has been developed to predict the process of pressure venting after module failure and the related motion of launched module parts.

The blast effects of the primary explosion are based on results from calculations with BLAST3D. The blast and flame effects of the secondary external explosion due to venting are calculated using existing models. The throw of fragments and debris is quantified with a recently developed model. This model is based on trajectory calculations and gives the impact densities, velocities, and angles as output. Furthermore the outflow of bulk material is taken into account. The consequences for external objects and human beings are calculated using existing models. Finally the risk contours and the Societal risk (FN curve) are calculated, which can be compared to regulations.     

Buoyancy and turbulence-driven atmospheric circulation over urban areas

In the buoyancy and turbulence-driven atmospheric circulations (BTDAC) that occur over urban areas where the approach means wind speeds are very low (less than turbulent fluctuations and typically < 3 m/sec), the surface temperatures are significantly higher than those in the external rural areas, and the atmosphere above the mixing layer is stably stratified. In this paper, the mechanisms of BTDAC formation are studied through laboratory experiments and modelling, with additional low-level inflow from external rural areas and a divergent outflow in the opposite direction in the upper part of the mixed layer. Strong turbulent plumes in the central region mix the flow between lower and higher levels up to the inversion height. There are shear-driven turbulent eddies and weaker buoyant plumes around the periphery of the urban area. As the approach flow is very weak, the recirculating streamlines within the dome restrict the ventilation, and the dispersion of pollution emitted from sources below the inversion height leading to a rise in the mean concentration. Low-level air entrained from rural areas can, however, improve ventilation and lower this concentration. This trend can also be improved if the recirculating structure of the BTDAC flow pattern over urban areas breaks down as a result of the surface temperature distribution not being symmetrical, or as the approach wind speed increases to a level comparable with the mean velocity of circulation, or (except near the equator) the urban area is large enough that the Coriolis acceleration is significant.     

Microanatomy and life history in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Palaeopleurosaurus</Emphasis> (Rhynchocephalia: Pleurosauridae) from the Early Jurassic of Germany

The tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) from New Zealand is often—erroneously—identified as a ‘living fossil’, although it is the lone survivor of a large, successful radiation of Rhynchocephalia, sister taxon to squamates (lizards and snakes), that thrived through the Mesozoic and Cenozoic and experienced an intricate evolution of life histories and feeding habits. Within Rhynchocephalia, only Pleurosauridae are thought to be marine and piscivorous. Here, we present bone histological data of the Jurassic pleurosaurid Palaeopleurosaurus, showing osteosclerosis (i.e. bone mass increase) in its gastralia, and some osteosclerosis in its rib but no increase in bone mass in the femur, supporting a gradual skeletal specialization for an aquatic way of life. Similar to Sphenodon, the bone tissue deposited in Palaeopleurosaurus is lamellar zonal bone. The femoral growth pattern in Palaeopleurosaurus differs from that of terrestrial Sphenodon in a more irregular spacing of growth marks and deposition of non-annual (i.e. non-continuous) rest lines, indicating strong dependency on exogenous factors. The annual growth mark count in adult but not yet fully grown Palaeopleurosaurus is much lower when compared to adult individuals of Sphenodon, which could indicate a lower lifespan for Palaeopleurosaurus. Whereas the gastral ribs of Palaeopleurosaurus and Sphenodon are similar in composition, the ribs of Sphenodon differ profoundly in being separated into a proximal tubular rib part with a thick cortex, and an elliptical, flared ventral part characterised by extremely thin cortical bone. The latter argues against a previously inferred protective function of the ventral rib parts for the vulnerable viscera in Sphenodon.     

Developmental changes of nasal and oral calls in the goitred gazelle <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gazella subgutturosa</Emphasis>, a nonhuman mammal with a sexually dimorphic and descended larynx

In goitred gazelles (Gazella subgutturosa), sexual dimorphism of larynx size and position is reminiscent of the case in humans, suggesting shared features of vocal ontogenesis in both species. This study investigates the ontogeny of nasal and oral calls in 23 (10 male and 13 female) individually identified goitred gazelles from shortly after birth up to adolescence. The fundamental frequency (f0) and formants were measured as the acoustic correlates of the developing sexual dimorphism. Settings for LPC analysis of formants were based on anatomical dissections of 5 specimens. Along ontogenesis, compared to females, male f0 was consistently lower both in oral and nasal calls and male formants were lower in oral calls, whereas the first two formants of nasal calls did not differ between sexes. In goitred gazelles, significant sex differences in f0 and formants appeared as early as the second week of life, while in humans they emerge only before puberty. This result suggests different pathways of vocal ontogenesis in the goitred gazelles and in humans.     

Software for prioritizing conservation actions based on probabilistic information

Marxan is the most common decision-support tool used to inform the design of protected-area systems. The original version of Marxan does not consider risk and uncertainty associated with threatening processes affecting protected areas, including uncertainty about the location and condition of species’ populations and habitats now and in the future. We described and examined the functionality of a modified version of Marxan, Marxan with Probability. This software explicitly considers 4 types of uncertainty: probability that a feature exists in a particular place (estimated based on species distribution models or spatially explicit population models); probability that features in a site will be lost in the future due to a threatening process, such as climate change, natural catastrophes, and uncontrolled human interventions; probability that a feature will exist in the future due to natural successional processes, such as a fire or flood; and probability the feature exists but has been degraded by threatening processes, such as overfishing or pollution, and thus cannot contribute to conservation goals. We summarized the results of 5 studies that illustrate how each type of uncertainty can be used to inform protected area design. If there were uncertainty in species or habitat distribution, users could maximize the chance that these features were represented by including uncertainty using Marxan with Probability. Similarly, if threatening processes were considered, users minimized the chance that species or habitats were lost or degraded by using Marxan with Probability. Marxan with Probability opens up substantial new avenues for systematic conservation planning research and application by agencies.     

Ecosystem approach to harvesting in the Arctic: Walking the tightrope between exploitation and conservation in the Barents Sea

Projecting the consequences of warming and sea-ice loss for Arctic marine food web and fisheries is challenging due to the intricate relationships between biology and ice. We used StrathE2EPolar, an end-to-end (microbes-to-megafauna) food web model incorporating ice-dependencies to simulate climate-fisheries interactions in the Barents Sea. The model was driven by output from the NEMO-MEDUSA earth system model, assuming RCP 8.5 atmospheric forcing. The Barents Sea was projected to be > 95% ice-free all year-round by the 2040s compared to > 50% in the 2010s, and approximately 2 °C warmer. Fisheries management reference points (F_MSY and B_MSY) for demersal fish (cod, haddock) were projected to increase by around 6%, indicating higher productivity. However, planktivorous fish (capelin, herring) reference points were projected to decrease by 15%, and upper trophic levels (birds, mammals) were strongly sensitive to planktivorous fish harvesting. The results indicate difficult trade-offs ahead, between harvesting and conservation of ecosystem structure and function.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01616-9.     

Global rarity of intact coastal regions

Management of the land–sea interface is essential for global conservation and sustainability objectives because coastal regions maintain natural processes that support biodiversity and the livelihood of billions of people. However, assessments of coastal regions have focused strictly on either the terrestrial or marine realm. Consequently, understanding of the overall state of Earth's coastal regions is poor. We integrated the terrestrial human footprint and marine cumulative human impact maps in a global assessment of the anthropogenic pressures affecting coastal regions. Of coastal regions globally, 15.5% had low anthropogenic pressure, mostly in Canada, Russia, and Greenland. Conversely, 47.9% of coastal regions were heavily affected by humanity, and in most countries (84.1%) >50% of their coastal regions were degraded. Nearly half (43.3%) of protected areas across coastal regions were exposed to high human pressures. To meet global sustainability objectives, all nations must undertake greater actions to preserve and restore the coastal regions within their borders.