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991.
Modeling the relationships between land use and land cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest, USA 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
This paper presents an approach to modeling land-cover change as a function of land-use change. We argue that, in order to model the link between socio-economic change and changes in forest cover in a region that is experiencing residential and recreational development and agricultural abandonment, land-use and land-cover change need to be represented as separate processes. Forest-cover change is represented here using two transition probabilities that were calculated from Landsat imagery and that, taken together, describe a Markov transition matrix between forest and non-forest over a 10-year period. Using a three-date land-use data set, compiled and interpreted from digitized parcel boundaries, and scanned aerial photography for 136 sites (c. 2500 ha) sampled from the Upper Midwest, USA, we test functional relationships between forest-cover transition probabilities, standardized to represent changes over a decade, and land-use conditions and changes within sample sites. Regression models indicated that about 60% of the variation in the average forest-cover transition probabilities (i.e. from forest to non-forest and vice versa) can be predicted using three variables: amount of agricultural land use in a site; amount of developed land use; and the amount of area increasing in development. In further analysis, time lags were evaluated, showing that agricultural abandonment had a relatively strong time-lag effect but development did not. We demonstrate an approach to using forest-cover transition probabilities to develop spatially-constrained simulations of forest-cover change. Because the simulations are based on transition probabilities that are indexed to a particular time and place, the simulations are improved over previous applications of Markov transition models. This modeling approach can be used to predict forest-cover changes as a result of socio-economic change, by linking to models that predict land-use change on the basis of exogenous human-induced drivers. 相似文献
992.
For about 50 years the desertion of areas by traditional activities has led to an important evolution of landscapes and environments
on the island of Ouessant. The study of this evolution has been undertaken at different spatial and temporal scales. On one
part of the island, a scientific investigation carried out at the scale of the parcel enabled the form of the landscape in
1850 to be compared with that of 1985. On the whole island, the evolution of spatial organization and land use was compared
between 1950 and 1985. For each of three main ecological environments, vegetational successions after the decrease of agriculture
have been studied along with their future potential changes. This work highlights some considerations about the present management
of the environment in relation to the major objectives of island environmental policies. 相似文献
993.
Sun F Shih Jonathan D. Jordan 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1992,28(4):713-719
ABSTRACT: Landsat satellite Thematic Mapper (TM) data were used to assess regional soil moisture conditions. The mid-infrared (MIR) data of TM band 7 were overlain onto four principal land-use categories (Agricultural/Irrigated, Urban/Clearings, Forest/ Wetlands, Water) using a geographic information system (GIS). M data were used to assess four qualitative surface soil-moisture conditions (water/very wet, wet, moist, and dry) within each land-use category of a 208,354 ha southwestern Florida study area. The MIR response was inversely related to the qualitative surface soil-moisture content. Integration of Landsat TM MIR data with land use through GIS appears to be a useful technique for high-resolution regional soil moisture assessment, and further research to reline this technique is recommended. 相似文献
994.
D. R. Edwards T C. Daniel O. Marbun 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1992,28(3):487-494
ABSTRACT: Confined production of poultry results in significant volumes of waste material which are typically disposed of by land application. Concerns over the potential environmental impacts of poultry waste disposal have resulted in ongoing efforts to develop management practices which maintain high quality of water downstream of disposal areas. The timing of application to minimize waste constituent losses is a management practice with the potential to ensure high quality of streams, rivers, and lakes downstream of receiving areas. This paper describes the development and application of a method to identify which time of year is best, from the standpoint of surface water quality, for land application of poultry waste. The procedure consists of using a mathematical simulation model to estimate average nitrogen and phosphorus losses resulting from different application timings, and then identifying the timings which minimize losses of these nutrients. The procedure was applied to three locations in Arkansas, and three different criteria for optimality of application timing were investigated. One criterion was oriented strictly to water quality, one was oriented only to crop production, and the last was a combination. The criteria resulted in different windows of time being identified as optimal. Optimal windows also varied with location of the receiving area. The results indicate that it is possible to land-apply poultry waste at times which both minimize nutrient losses and maximize crop yield. 相似文献
995.
Scott D. Lindsey Robert W. Gunderson J. Paul. Riley 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1992,28(5):865-875
ABSTRACT: Many hydrologic models have input data requirements that are difficult to satisfy for all but a few well-instrumented, experimental watersheds. In this study, point soil moisture in a mountain watershed with various types of vegetative cover was modeled using a generalized regression model. Information on sur-ficial characteristics of the watershed was obtained by applying fuzzy set theory to a database consisting of only satellite and a digital elevation model (DEM). The fuzzy-c algorithm separated the watershed into distinguishable classes and provided regression coefficients for each ground pixel. The regression model used the coefficients to estimate distributed soil moisture over the entire watershed. A soil moisture accounting model was used to resolve temporal differences between measurements at prototypical measurement sites and validation sites. The results were reasonably accurate for all classes in the watershed. The spatial distribution of soil moisture estimates corresponded accurately with soil moisture measurements at validation sites on the watershed. It was concluded that use of the regression model to distribute soil moisture from a specified number of points can be combined with satellite and DEM information to provide a reasonable estimation of the spatial distribution of soil moisture for a watershed. 相似文献
996.
This paper provides an overview of the concepts of “risk” and “safety-integrity” in relation to safety-related electrical/electronic/programmable electronic systems. The paper is an abridged version of Annex A of the emerging International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Standard; “Functional safety of electrical/electronic/programmable electronic systems”. Although based on Annex A, the authors have deviated in a few instances, from the strict wording of Annex A in order to more properly represent their own views. Where this occurs, a note in the text has been added to alert the reader of the deviation. The concepts of risk (including tolerable risk; safety integrity; safety-related system; System and Software Integrity Levels) are discussed. 相似文献
997.
A “finding of no significant impact” (FONSI) resulting from an environmental assessment (EA) was reported by the US Army in
June 1986 for the construction and utilization of a multipurpose range complex (MPRC) at the Pohakuloa Training Area, Hawaii.
There was little public response, and the US Fish and Wildlife Service and state agencies were consulted and had few comments
concerning the results of the botanical surveys used in the assessment. Construction of the $24 million project was begun
in 1988. Near the end of construction in 1989 a lawsuit was filed to halt construction because an environmental impact statement
(EIS) had not been done for the project, and the plaintiff thought that significant damage had occurred to several unusual
ecosystems. Judgment was against the plaintiff and construction continued. An appeal was filed with the 9th Circuit Court.
As MPRC construction was nearly complete, and on advice of Department of Justice lawyers, the Department of Army agreed to
settle out of court. The settlement in part called for: (1) the plaintiff to drop the appeal and allow construction to be
completed as scheduled, and (2) the Department of Army to prepare an EIS for the operation of the MPRC. A subsequent botanical
survey for the EIS discovered one endangered plant species, four category 1 candidate plant species (taxa with sufficient
data to support listing as endangered or threatened), three category 2 candidate plant species (taxa with some evidence of
vulnerability but insufficient data to support listing at this time), one category 3a species (presumably extinct taxa), and
possibly three undescribed species growing within the MPRC boundary. The MPRC case study is an excellent example of why the
National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) must be modified to require in-depth and thorough environmental surveys. 相似文献
998.
Environmental planning,ecosystem science,and ecosystem approaches for integrating environment and development 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
D. Scott Slocombe 《Environmental management》1993,17(3):289-303
Currently popular concepts such as sustainable development and sustainability seek the integration of environment and development
planning. However, there is little evidence that this integration is occurring in either mainstream development planning or
environmental planning. This is a function of the history, philosophies, and evolved roles of both. A brief review of the
experience and results of mainstream planning, environmental planning, and ecosystem science suggests there is much in past
scientific and professional practice that is relevant to the goal of integrated planning for environment and development,
but still such commonly recommended reforms as systems and multidisciplinary approaches, institutional integration, and participatory,
goal-oriented processes are rarely achieved. “Ecosystem approaches,” as developed and applied in ecology, human ecology, environmental
planning, anthropology, psychology, and other disciplines, may provide a more transdisciplinary route to successful integration
of environment and development. Experience with ecosystem approaches is reviewed, their advantages and disadvantages are discussed,
and they are compared to traditional urban and regional planning, environmental planning, and ecosystem science approaches.
Ultimately a synthesis of desirable characteristics for a framework to integrate environment and development planning is presented
as a guide for future work and a criterion for evaluating existing programs. 相似文献
999.
David M. Wolock Gregory J. McCabe Gary D. Tasker Marshall E. Moss 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1993,29(3):475-486
ABSTRACT: The effects of potential climate change on water resources in the Delaware River basin were determined. The study focused on two important water-resource components in the basin: (1) storage in the reservoirs that supply New York City, and (2) the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary. Current reservoir operating procedures provide for releases from the New York City reservoirs to maintain the position of the salt front in the estuary downstream from freshwater intakes and ground-water recharge zones in the Philadelphia metropolitan area. A hydrologic model of the basin was developed to simulate changes in New York City reservoir storage and the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary given changes in temperature and precipitation. Results of simulations indicated that storage depletion in the New York City reservoirs is a more likely effect of changes in temperature and precipitation than is the upstream movement of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary. In contrast, the results indicated that a rise in sea level would have a greater effect on movement of the salt front than on storage in the New York City reservoirs. The model simulations also projected that, by decreasing current mandated reservoir releases, a balance can be reached wherein the negative effects of climate change on storage in the New York City reservoirs and the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary are minimized. Finally, the results indicated that natural variability in climate is of such magnitude that its effects on water resources could overwhelm the effects of long-term trends in precipitation and temperature. 相似文献
1000.
Leonard G. Pearlstine Wiley M. Kitchens Pamela J. Latham Richard D. Bartleson 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1993,29(6):1009-1019
ABSTRACT: Construction of a tide gate at the mouth of the north channel of the Savannah River in Georgia has resulted in significant changes in salinities influencing marsh community changes. The tide gate is directly responsible for a 2 to 6 mile upstream displacement of salt water in the river. In the marsh, soil salinities ranged from 0.0 ppt at upstream sites to 12 ppt at downstream sites when the tide gate was in operation. Within two months of taking the tide gate out of operation, interstitial salinities at the downstream sites dropped to 4 ppt. Influences of the tide gate on marsh vegetation were modeled in a geographic information system. With the tide gate out of operation, the model predicts that freshwater marsh would increase in area by 340 percent. 相似文献