Uncertainty and economic analysis of climate change: A survey of approaches and findings

The analysis of climate change is confronted with large uncertainties that need to be taken into account to arrive at meaningful policy recommendations. The main contribution of economics to this interdisciplinary task is to provide formal frameworks and techniques for analyzing climate policy in the context of uncertainty. This paper will give an overview of existing approaches and findings to provide a broad picture of what economics can contribute to the debate.     

Emerging international principles of environmental protection and their impact on Britain

Summary The paper reviews emerging international principles of environmental protection, as well as their refinement, during the last two decades of implementation. It is argued that international efforts were primarily directed towards the prevention of transfrontier pollution and could only succeed if there was agreement on the meaning of the term pollution. The concept of pollution is therefore explored in some detail. Confusion about the meaning of pollution, combined with the impact of international regulation (both global and European) on British practice, help to explain some of the fundamental problems now facing the traditional British pollution control regime, especially its legal and philosophical basis. It is argued that recent and proposed administrative changes will be insufficient to comply with European expectations. Political changes and a more active involvement by the judiciary and the public may be required.Dr Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen is a Research Fellow at the Science Policy Research Unit of the University of Sussex. She obtained her first degree in Geography from the University of Adelaide and her D Phil in International Relations from the University of Sussex.     

Supply and demand: causes and consequences of assortative mating in common terns <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sterna hirundo</Emphasis>

Although assortative mating is widespread among long-lived monogamous birds, the underlying mechanisms still remain unclear in many species. In this study, we analysed assortative mating by age and body mass in the common tern Sterna hirundo with special regard to mate choice decisions of newly paired birds. To assess whether assortative mating by age is an active decision involving either homotypic or directional preferences or rather a passive process due to restricted availability of potential mates, we analysed the influence of age-dependent arrival date and cohort size. Furthermore, we looked for direct benefits in terms of reproductive success. Common terns mated assortatively by age and arrival date but not by body mass at arrival. Assortative mating by age was age dependent and was detected mainly in younger birds, whereas birds older than 8 years rather re-paired with younger ones. The availability of same-aged mates was restricted by cohort size and arrival date. We found no general evidence for better reproductive performance of same-aged pairs. Instead, relative reproductive success was related to own age and the relative age of mate: It should be advantageous for any bird to acquire an old mate; hence, assortative mating by age seems to be beneficial only for old terns but not for young ones. Age-assortative mating in common terns occurred by both passive and active processes, which are not mutually exclusive. Our results do not indicate a homotypic but a directional preference and support the theory that high-quality (older/experienced) individuals tend to mate assortatively if same-aged mates are available, which leaves low-quality (young/inexperienced) individuals to mate among themselves.     

Consumers affect prey biomass and diversity through resource partitioning

Consumer presence and nutrient availability can have contrasting and interactive effects on plant diversity. In a factorial experiment, we manipulated two levels of nutrient supply and the presence of two moderately specialized grazers in different combinations (no grazers, two species in monoculture, and both in combination). We tested how nutrients and grazers regulated the biomass of marine coastal epiphytes and the diversity of algal assemblages, based on the prediction that the effect of consumers on prey diversity depends on productivity and consumer specialization. Nutrient enrichment increased the epiphytic load, while monocultures of single grazer species partly prevented epiphyte growth. However, only the presence of two species with complementary feeding preferences effectively prevented epiphyte overgrowth. The epiphytes comprised micro- and macroalgal species, and the diversity of these algal assemblages differed, depending on grazer identity. For the microalgae, diversity was reduced by nutrient addition when grazer control was inefficient, but not when specialist microalgal grazers were present. Macroalgal diversity was reduced in ambient water with specialist macroalgal grazers compared to the treatment with inefficient ones. These results indicate that grazer composition and productivity are crucial in determining whether consumer pressure will have a positive or negative effect on algal diversity.     

Social signals and sustainability: ambiguity about motivations can affect status perceptions of efficiency and curtailment behaviors

Perceived status can affect the diffusion of pro-environmental behaviors and sustainable consumption. However, the status of different forms of sustainable consumption has not been adequately explored. Previous studies suggest that curtailment behaviors are associated with low or neutral status, while efficiency behaviors are associated with high status. However, these studies have generally examined a small number of behaviors. Drawing from costly signaling theory, we developed a mixed methods study to explore whether and why pro-environmental behaviors are perceived to be associated with high or low status, the perceived motivation for those behaviors, and the relationship between motivation and status. We conducted structured, interactive interviews with 71 participants to explore perceptions of 19 behaviors. Using quantitative and qualitative analyses, we find that efficiency is rated higher status than curtailment largely due to monetary considerations. Efficiency is also perceived to be motivated by environmental concern to a greater degree than curtailment. Understanding the motivation for behaviors clarifies the social signal because it provides insights into whether one is incurring personal costs. Importantly, it is often unclear whether low-cost curtailment behaviors are adopted by choice rather than financial need. Ambiguity about the intentionality of behaviors results in such behaviors being perceived as lower status. Those who argue that curtailment will be necessary for long-term sustainability must address status perceptions because social stigmas could hinder their adoption. Overcoming such stigmas may require, indicating that curtailment behaviors are voluntary, but it may be more effective to use social or economic mechanisms to increase efficiency behaviors.     

All-in-one whole exome sequencing strategy with simultaneous copy number variant,single nucleotide variant and absence-of-heterozygosity analysis in fetuses with structural ultrasound anomalies: A 1-year experience

Objective

We performed a 1-year evaluation of a novel strategy of simultaneously analyzing single nucleotide variants (SNVs), copy number variants (CNVs) and copy-number-neutral Absence-of-Heterozygosity from Whole Exome Sequencing (WES) data for prenatal diagnosis of fetuses with ultrasound (US) anomalies and a non-causative QF-PCR result.

Methods

After invasive diagnostics, whole exome parent-offspring trio-sequencing with exome-wide CNV analysis was performed in pregnancies with fetal US anomalies and a non-causative QF-PCR result (WES-CNV). On request, additional SNV-analysis, restricted to (the) requested gene panel(s) only (with the option of whole exome SNV-analysis afterward) was performed simultaneously (WES-CNV/SNV) or as rapid SNV-re-analysis, following a normal CNV analysis.

Results

In total, 415 prenatal samples were included. Following a non-causative QF-PCR result, WES-CNV analysis was initially requested for 74.3% of the chorionic villus (CV) samples and 45% of the amniotic fluid (AF) samples. In case WES-CNV analysis did not reveal a causative aberration, SNV-re-analysis was requested in 41.7% of the CV samples and 17.5% of the AF samples. All initial analyses could be finished within 2 weeks after sampling. For SNV-re-analysis during pregnancy, turn-around-times (TATs) varied between one and 8 days.

Conclusion

We show a highly efficient all-in-one WES-based strategy, with short TATs, and the option of rapid SNV-re-analysis after a normal CNV result.     

Social personality traits in chimpanzees: temporal stability and structure of behaviourally assessed personality traits in three captive populations

Animals of many species show consistency in behaviour across time and contexts that differs from other individuals' behaviour in the same population. Such ‘personality’ affects fitness and has therefore become an increasingly relevant research topic in biology. However, consistent variation in social behaviour is understudied. In socially living species, behaviour occurs in a social environment and social interactions have a significant influence on individual fitness. This study addressed personality in social behaviour of 75 captive chimpanzees in three zoos by coding observed behaviour. Fifteen behavioural variables were significantly repeatable (range 0.21–0.93) in at least two of the three zoos. The behaviours showed considerable long-term stability across 3 years, which did not differ from the short-term repeatability. The repeatable behaviours were then analysed with factor analyses. They formed five independent factors, three of which consisted of social traits and were labelled ‘sociability’, ‘positive affect’ and ‘equitability’. The two non-social behaviour factors were labelled ‘anxiety’ and ‘activity’. The factor scores were analysed for sex and population differences. Males had higher factor scores in all traits except ‘sociability’. The factor scores differed also between the zoos, implying considerable external effects in trait expression. The results show that chimpanzees show personality in a broad range of social and non-social behaviours. The study highlights the importance of assessing personality in the social behaviour, especially in cohesive social species, as only then can we understand the consequences of personality in socially living species.