Sensitivity to assumptions in models of generalist predation on a cyclic prey

Ecological theory predicts that generalist predators should damp or suppress long-term periodic fluctuations (cycles) in their prey populations and depress their average densities. However, the magnitude of these impacts is likely to vary depending on the availability of alternative prey species and the nature of ecological mechanisms driving the prey cycles. These multispecies effects can be modeled explicitly if parameterized functions relating prey consumption to prey abundance, and realistic population dynamical models for the prey, are available. These requirements are met by the interaction between the Hen Harrier (Circus cyaneus) and three of its prey species in the United Kingdom, the Meadow Pipit (Anthus pratensis), the field vole (Microtus agrestis), and the Red Grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus). We used this system to investigate how the availability of alternative prey and the way in which prey dynamics are modeled might affect the behavior of simple trophic networks. We generated cycles in one of the prey species (Red Grouse) in three different ways: through (1) the interaction between grouse density and macroparasites, (2) the interaction between grouse density and male grouse aggressiveness, and (3) a generic, delayed density-dependent mechanism. Our results confirm that generalist predation can damp or suppress grouse cycles, but only when the densities of alternative prey are low. They also demonstrate that diametrically opposite indirect effects between pairs of prey species can occur together in simple systems. In this case, pipits and grouse are apparent competitors, whereas voles and grouse are apparent facilitators. Finally, we found that the quantitative impacts of the predator on prey density differed among the three models of prey dynamics, and these differences were robust to uncertainty in parameter estimation and environmental stochasticity.     

Nutrient retention in tile-fed and non-tile reconstructed oxbows in north central Iowa

Nutrient export from the agricultural Midwest threatens the Gulf of Mexico and new conservation practices are needed to reduce the loss of nutrient from subsurface tile drainage systems. Oxbows are natural waterbodies formed when a river cuts off a meander loop and water quality benefits of reconstructed oxbows are being increasingly recognized. In this study, we monitored four reconstructed oxbow sites (two tile-fed, two non-tile) over a 2-year period in north-central Iowa and assessed their capacity for NO₃-N and dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) reductions. Water flow and quality monitoring of tiles, shallow groundwater, oxbow and receiving streams documented that the oxbows were dominated by tile drainage inputs. NO₃-N concentrations were highest in the drainage tiles flowing into the tile-fed oxbows (mean 8–10 mg/L) and much lower in floodplain groundwater (<1–2 mg/L). Annual NO₃-N loads into the tile-fed oxbows were substantially larger than input loads into the non-tiled oxbows. For the two tile-fed oxbows, the 2-year NO₃-N retention efficiencies were very similar (0.76–0.77) and on a monthly basis, greater retention efficiencies were measured in summer and fall. DRP concentrations and loads into the tile-fed oxbows were too low to allow for meaningful estimates of retention. Reconstructing oxbows to receive tile drainage water should be considered a sustainable conservation practice for tile drainage treatment in agricultural areas.     

Different compensatory mechanisms in two metal-accumulating aquatic macrophytes exposed to acute cadmium stress in outdoor artificial lakes

Mechanisms underlying cadmium (Cd) detoxification were compared in two aquatic macrophytes commonly used in phytoremediation, namely Pistia stratiotes L. and Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms. To simulate Cd pollution in the open environment, plants growing in outdoor artificial lakes were exposed for 21d to either 25 or 100microM Cd, in two consecutive years. Toxicity symptoms were absent or mild in both species. Metal accumulation was much higher in the roots of P. stratiotes, whereas in E. crassipes a comparatively higher fraction was translocated to the leaves. In both species, Cd was neither included in phenolic polymers or Ca-oxalate crystals, nor altered the levels of Cd-complexing organic acids. Glutathione levels were constitutively remarkably higher and much more responsive to Cd exposure in P. stratiotes than in E. crassipes. Abundant phytochelatin synthesis occurred only in P. stratiotes, both in roots and in leaves. In E. crassipes, on the other side, the constitutive levels of some antioxidant enzymes and ascorbate were higher and more responsive to Cd than in P. stratiotes. Thus, in these two aquatic plants grown in the open, different detoxification mechanisms might come into play to counterbalance Cd acute stress.     

Investigations of nitrogen fluxes and pools on a limestone site in the Alps

In the North Tyrolean Limestone Alps a site was investigated over a four-year period (1998–2001) in order to assess the nitrogen saturation status, the nitrogen budget (quantification of the net uptake of nitrogen by the canopy and of the nitrogen mineralization, nitrogen uptake from roots and N₂O emission rates, proof of the origin of nitrate in the soil water with stable isotope analyses), and the effects of the actual nitrogen input on ground water quality. The main goals were to quantify the nitrogen input rate, the nitrogen pools in above-ground and below-ground compartments, nitrogen turnover processes in the soil as well as the output into the groundwater and into the atmosphere. The findings are based on continuous and discontinuous field measurements as well as on model results.While nitrogen input exceeded the Critical Loads of the WHO (1995), nitrogen deficiency and nutrient imbalances were verified by needle analyses. The atmospheric input of inorganic nitrogen was higher than the nitrogen output in 50 cm soil depth. A tracer experiment with¹⁵N helped to prove that not more than half of the applied nitrate could be discharged. This allows the conclusion that nitrogen is stored in the system and that the site cannot yet be said to be saturated with nitrogen. The same result was also obtained by modelling. In addition, it was proved that the nitrogen discharge did not stem from deposition but from processes within the system.     

Ecological and economic considerations on fishing and rearing of Tapes phillipinarum in the lagoon of Venice

A population dynamic model for Tapes philippinarum has been developed, using experimental data for the estimation of mortality, and literature information for recruitment. The population dynamic model has been coupled to a eco-physiological model of T. philippinarum previously developed, in order to simulate the evolution of individual size and number of individuals in each age class.The resulting age-size class model has been used to analyse the implication of different scenarios of fishing/harvesting of the bivalve in the lagoons of the Northern Adriatic Sea, where fishery and aquaculture represent important economic activities.Ten years long simulations have been performed, in which initial density, harvesting efficiency, minimum harvested size, were varied. Comparisons between the different strategies are made in term of total yields and bio-economic income. The model gives suggestions on the optimal fishing effort, in case of fishery, and on optimal seeding size and seeding moment, in case of aquaculture.A discussion of model results provides indications on harvesting policies which are appropriate from ecological-economical point of view. The final result is that economically more profitable strategies coincide with ecologically more conservative policies.     

Mapping and evaluating sugarcane expansion in Brazil’s savanna using MODIS and intensity analysis: a case-study from the state of Tocantins

In Brazil, the main biofuel crop is sugarcane, and with its rapid expansion, there is much debate about what land uses and land covers it is replacing, and what are the associated environmental and social impacts. Some argue sugarcane is mainly replacing cattle pasture, thus having minimal impacts on native vegetation and small-scale family farming. In contrast, others claim sugarcane is replacing cropland traditionally under soybeans, rice, beans, and corn. Thus, food security is negatively affected and small-scale family farming livelihoods and culture are threatened. This is a proof-of-concept paper illustrating methods contributing toward the resolution of such debates. First we map land use and cover change in areas undergoing sugarcane expansion using satellite data from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer); second, we test the hypothesis that sugarcane is replacing traditional annual crops using intensity analysis, via a case study of land change in the municipality of Pedro Afonso, Tocantins in northern Brazil between the 2008–2013 crop years. Maps matched reference data with overall agreements between 87–91%. Intensity analysis confirmed sugarcane is replacing annual crops much more than cattle pasture and other land uses and covers, pointing to particular economic and social processes driving land change.     

Biodiversity protection funding preference: a case study of hotspot geoinformatics and digital governance for the Map of Italian Nature in the presence of multiple indicators of ecological value,ecological sensitivity and anthropic pressure for the Oltrepò Pavese and Ligurian-Emilian Apennine study area in Italy

The environmental decision-maker is aware of the increasing difficulties in finding sufficient financial resources for nature conservation. So he must focus his attention on ecological situations that more than the others merit considering and defending because of elevated value but also because of risk for their intrinsic characteristics and for human pressure acting on them. Usually an ecological scientist focuses his attention on the natural patches of the landscape, analyzing their peculiar ecological traits forgetting that, even if we want to protect some environmental critical situations, this can be done only moving to the administrative partition of the territory since the central and local environmental stakeholders have primary interest in providing funds to those involved in those critical situations. The present work shows a methodological approach, consisting of a set of statistical and geoinformational tools, considering both ecological and socio-demographical indicators. The goal is not simply to give some general guidelines for environmental policies to the involved stakeholders but focuses more on finding out which administrative local partitions in a study area are more worthy to receive urgently the priority funds for biodiversity protection to face critical environmental situations often due to a combination of intrinsic ecological parameters and external human pressure ones. Obtaining results that cover 5% of the Communes involved in the area seems to be a realistic result that a decision-maker can support and fund. Methodologically and geospatial data analytically, the investigation offers interesting challenges for surveillance geoinformatics of hotspot detection and prioritization, because of the presence of multiple hotspots and multiple sets of multiple indicators.     

Modelling spatial zero-inflated continuous data with an exponentially compound Poisson process

A parsimonious model is presented as an alternative to delta approaches to modelling zero-inflated continuous data. The data model relies on an exponentially compound Poisson process, also called the law of leaks (LOL). It represents the process of sampling resources that are spatially distributed as Poisson distributed patches, each containing a certain quantity of biomass drawn from an exponential distribution. In an application of the LOL, two latent structures are proposed to account for spatial dependencies between zero values at different scales within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. The LOL is compared to the delta-gamma (ΔΓ) distribution using bottom-trawl survey data. Results of this case study emphasize that the LOL provides slightly better fits to learning samples with a very high proportion of zero values and small strictly positive abundance data. Additionally, it offers better predictions of validation samples.