State-of-the-art of ecological modelling with emphasis on development of structural dynamic models

The paper deals with two major problems in ecological modelling today, namely how to get reliable parameters? and how to build ecosystem properties into our models? The use of new mathematical tools to answer these questions is mentioned briefly, but the main focus of the paper is on development of structural dynamic models which are models using goal functions to reflect a current change of the properties of the biological components in the models. These changes of the properties are due to the enormous adaptability of the biological components to the prevailing conditions. All species in an ecosystem attempt to obtain most biomass, i.e. to move as far away as possible from thermodynamic equilibrium which can be measured by the thermodynamic concept exergy. Consequently, exergy has been proposed as a goal function in ecological models with dynamic structure, meaning currently changed properties of the biological components and in model language currently changed parameters. An equation to compute an exergy index of a model is presented. The theoretical considerations leading to this equation are not presented here but references to literature where the basis theory can be found are given. Two case studies of structural dynamic modelling are presented: a shallow lake where the structural dynamic changes have been determined before the model was developed, and the application of biomanipulation in lake management, where the structural dynamic changes are generally known. Moreover. it is also discussed how the same idea of using exergy as a goal function in ecological modelling may be applied to facilitate the estimation of parameters.     

Dynamic model of Lake Chozas (León, NW Spain)—Decrease in eco-exergy from clear to turbid phase due to introduction of exotic crayfish

We developed a dynamic model of the phosphorus cycle in Lake Chozas, a small shallow water body in León (NW Spain). The calibrated model simulated seasonal dynamics of phosphorus concentrations in major components of the lake's ecological network before and after 1997, the year when an invasive allochthonous crustacean, the Louisiana red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), was introduced into the lake. The shift from clean to turbid phase, due to grazing by crayfish on submerged vegetation, caused a gradual decrease in eco-exergy, reflecting an increase in entropy, related to breakdown of ecosystem internal equilibria. This case study verifies the hypothesis of Marchi et al. (2010) that, after an initial relatively stable state, the allochthonous species may cause an increase in entropy indicating perturbation of the ecosystem.     

Modelling spatial and temporal variability in a zero-inflated variable: The case of stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) cone production

Modelling masting habit, i.e. the spatial synchronized annual variability in fruit production, is a huge task due to two main circumstances: (1) the identification of main ecological factors controlling fruiting processes, and (2) the common departure of fruit data series from the main basic statistical assumptions of normality and independence. Stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) is one of the main species in the Mediterranean basin that is able to grow under hard limiting conditions (sandy soils and extreme continental climate), and typically defined as a masting species. Considering the high economical value associated with edible nut production, the masting habit of stone pine has been a main concern for the forest management of the species. In the present work we have used annual fruit data series from 740 stone pine trees measured during a 13 years period (1996-2008) in order: (a) to verify our main hypothesis pointing out to the existence of a weather control of the fruiting process in limiting environments, rather than resource depletion or endogenous inherent cycles; (b) to identify those site factors, stand attributes and climate events affecting specific traits involved in fruiting process; and (c) to construct a model for predicting spatial and temporal patterns of variability in stone pine cone production at different spatial extents as region, stand and tree. Given the nature of the data, the model has been formulated as zero-inflated log-normal, incorporating random components to carry out with the observed lack of independence. This model attains efficiencies close to 70-80% in predicting temporal and spatial variability at regional scale. Though efficiencies are reduced according to the spatial extent of the model, it leads to unbiased estimates and efficiencies over 35-50% when predicting annual yields at tree or stand scale, respectively. In this sense, the proposed model is a main tool for facilitating decision making in some management aspects such as the quantification of total amount of cones annually supplied to nut industry, design of cone harvest programs or the optimal application of seedling felling.     

Importance of climate uncertainty for projections of forest ecosystem services

Regional Environmental Change - Mountain forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services (ES, e.g., timber production, protection from natural hazards, maintaining biodiversity) and are...     

Social justice in the context of adaptation to climate change—reflecting on different policy approaches to distribute and allocate flood risk management

Regional Environmental Change -     

Occurrence,spatial distribution,sources, and risks of polychlorinated biphenyls and heavy metals in surface sediments from a large eutrophic Chinese lake (Lake Chaohu)

Surface sediment from large and eutrophic Lake Chaohu was investigated to determine the occurrence, spatial distribution, sources, and risks of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and heavy metals in one of the five biggest freshwater lakes in China. Total concentration of PCBs (Σ₃₄PCBs) in Lake Chaohu was 672 pg g^?1 dry weight (dw), with a range of 7 to 3999 pg g^?1 dw, which was lower than other water bodies worldwide. The majority of heavy metals were detected at all sampling locations, except for Sr, B, and In. Concentrations of Al, Fe, Ca, Mn, Sr, Co, Zn, Cd, Pb, and Hg were similar to that reported for other lakes globally. Concentrations of K, Mg, Na, Li, Ga, and Ag were greater than the average, whereas those of Cr, Ni, and Cu were lower. Cluster analysis (CA) and positive matrix factorization (PMF) yielded accordant results for the source apportionment of PCBs. The technical PCBs and microbial degradation accounted for 34.2 % and 65.8 % of total PCBs using PMF, and PMF revealed that natural and anthropogenic sources of heavy metals accounted for 38.1 % and 61.8 %, respectively. CA indicated that some toxic heavy metals (e.g., Cd, In, Tl, and Hg) were associated with Ca–Na–Mg minerals rather than Fe–Mn minerals. The uncorrelated results between organic matter revealed by pyrolysis technology and heavy metals might be caused by the existence of competitive adsorption between organic matter and minerals. PCBs and heavy metals were coupling discharge without organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), but with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). No sediment sample exceeded the toxic threshold for dioxin-like PCBs (dl-PCBs) set at 20 pg toxicity equivalency quantity (TEQ)?g^?1, (max dl-PCBs, 10.9 pg TEQ g^?1). However, concentrations of Ag, Cd, and Hg were at levels of environmental concern. The sediment in the drinking water source area (DWSA) was threatened by heavy metals from other areas, and some fundamental solutions were proposed to protect the DWSA.     

Correction to: Allocation of risk and benefits—distributional justices in mountain hazard management

As financing protection against mountain hazards becomes increasingly challenging and therefore investments have to be prioritized, dilemmas of justice emerge: some local governments and individuals benefit from natural hazard protection schemes, whereas others loose. Decisions on whom to protect often caused contradicting concepts of political understanding, which differ in interpretations of fair resource allocation and distribution. This paper analyses the impact of different philosophical schools of social justice on mountain hazard management in Austria. We used data from a spatially explicit, object-based assessment of elements at risk and compared potential distributional effects of three political jurisdictions. We found that—depending on the respective political direction—various local governments gain and others loose within the actual distributional system of mitigation strategies. The implementation of a utilitarian policy approach would cause that high income communities in hazard-prone areas would mainly benefit. Consequently, this policy direction would encourage the public administration to ignore their own failure in the past natural hazards management and prevention. On the other hand, following a Rawlsians approach mainly peripheral communities would gain from new policy direction who often show besides natural hazards problem mainly large socio-economic challenges. Finally, the most radical change would include the implementation of a liberalism policy, whereabouts the state only provides hazard information, but no further mitigation measures. These findings highlight the distributional consequences of future mountain hazard management strategies and point to the crucial selection of policy direction in navigating the selection of various adaptation schemes.