Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region

Future climate conditions for the Mediterranean region based on an ensemble of 16 Global Climate Models are expressed and mapped using three approaches, giving special attention to the intermodel uncertainty. (1) The scenarios of mean seasonal temperature and precipitation agree with the projections published previously by other authors. The results show an increase in temperature in all seasons and for all parts of the Mediterranean with good intermodel agreement. Precipitation is projected to decrease in all parts and all seasons (most significantly in summer) except for the northernmost parts in winter. The intermodel agreement for the precipitation changes is lower than for temperature. (2) Changes in drought conditions are represented using the Palmer Drought Severity Index and its intermediate Z-index product. The results indicate a significant decrease in soil moisture in all seasons, with the most significant decrease occurring in summer. The displayed changes exhibit high intermodel agreement. (3) The climate change scenarios are defined in terms of the changes in parameters of the stochastic daily weather generator calibrated with the modeled daily data; the emphasis is put on the parameters, which affect the diurnal and interdiurnal variability in weather series. These scenarios indicate a trend toward more extreme weather in the Mediterranean. Temperature maxima will increase not only because of an overall rise in temperature means, but partly (in some areas) because of increases in temperature variability and daily temperature range. Increased mean daily precipitation sums on wet days occurring in some seasons, and some parts of the Mediterranean may imply higher daily precipitation extremes, and decreased probability of wet day occurrence will imply longer drought spells all across the Mediterranean.     

Drinking water treatment is not associated with an observed increase in neural tube defects in mice

Disinfection by-products (DBPs) arise when natural organic matter in source water reacts with disinfectants used in the water treatment process. Studies have suggested an association between DBPs and birth defects. Neural tube defects (NTDs) in embryos of untreated control mice were first observed in-house in May 2006 and have continued to date. The source of the NTD-inducing agent was previously determined to be a component of drinking water. Tap water samples from a variety of sources were analyzed for trihalomethanes (THMs) to determine if they were causing the malformations. NTDs were observed in CD-1 mice provided with treated and untreated surface water. Occurrence of NTDs varied by water source and treatment regimens. THMs were detected in tap water derived from surface water but not detected in tap water derived from a groundwater source. THMs were absent in untreated river water and laboratory purified waters, yet the percentage of NTDs in untreated river water were similar to the treated water counterpart. These findings indicate that THMs were not the primary cause of NTDs in the mice since the occurrence of NTDs was unrelated to drinking water disinfection.     

Variance Design and Air Pollution Control

Confronted with shortages of low sulfur content residual fuel oil and, consequently, faced with the threat of social and economic upheaval, several air pollution control authorities in the Northeastern states were forced to relax hard-won air quality standards during the winter of 1972. The authorities did so by granting variances to their sulfur content standards for residual fuel oil. This paper examines the institutional characteristics of these variance policies from an economic incentive standpoint. After setting up desirable structural criteria for institutional design of such crisis policies, the authors examine the experience of the winter of 1972 and arrive at policy guidelines which recommend themselves for consideration in future periods of fuel oil shortages.     

Measuring the effectiveness of landscape approaches to conservation and development

Landscape approaches attempt to achieve balance amongst multiple goals over long time periods and to adapt to changing conditions. We review project reports and the literature on integrated landscape approaches, and found a lack of documented studies of their long-term effectiveness. The combination of multiple and potentially changing goals presents problems for the conventional measures of impact. We propose more critical use of theories of change and measures of process and progress to complement the conventional impact assessments. Theories of change make the links between project deliverables, outputs, outcomes, and impacts explicit, and allow a full exploration of the landscape context. Landscape approaches are long-term engagements, but short-term process metrics are needed to confirm that progress is being made in negotiation of goals, meaningful stakeholder engagement, existence of connections to policy processes, and effectiveness of governance. Long-term impact metrics are needed to assess progress on achieving landscapes that deliver multiple societal benefits, including conservation, production, and livelihood benefits. Generic criteria for process are proposed, but impact metrics will be highly situation specific and must be derived from an effective process and a credible theory of change.     

Comparison of Outdoor and Classroom Ozone Exposures for School Children in Mexico City

Abstract

To evaluate methods of reducing exposure of school children in southwest Mexico City to ambient ozone, outdoor ozone levels were compared to indoor levels under three distinct classroom conditions: windows/doors open, air cleaner off; windows/doors closed, air cleaner off; windows/ doors closed, air cleaner on. Repeated two-minute average measurements of ozone were made within five minutes of each other inside and outside of six different school classrooms while children were in the room. Outdoor ozone two-minute average levels varied between 64 and 361 ppb; mean outdoor levels were above 160 ppb for each of the three conditions. Adjusting for outdoor relative humidity, for a mean outdoor ozone concentration of 170 ppb, the mean predicted indoor ozone concentrations were 125.3 (±5.7) ppb with windows/doors open; 35.4 (±4.6) ppb with windows/ doors closed, air cleaner off; and 28.9 (±4.3) ppb with windows/ doors closed, air cleaner on. The mean predicted ratios of indoor to outdoor ozone concentrations were 0.71 (±0.03) with windows/doors open; 0.18 (±0.02) ppb with windows/doors closed, air cleaner off; and 0.15 (±0.02) ppb with windows/doors closed, air cleaner on. As outdoor ozone concentrations increased, indoor ozone concentrations increased more rapidly with windows and doors open than with windows and doors closed. Ozone exposure in Mexican schools may be significantly reduced, and can usually be kept below the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline of 80 ppb, by closing windows and doors even when ambient ozone levels reach 30Q ppb or more.     

Combustion-derived substances in deep basins of Puget Sound: historical inputs from fossil fuel and biomass combustion

Reconstructions of 250 years historical inputs of two distinct types of black carbon (soot/graphitic black carbon (GBC) and char-BC) were conducted on sediment cores from two basins of the Puget Sound, WA. Signatures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were also used to support the historical reconstructions of BC to this system. Down-core maxima in GBC and combustion-derived PAHs occurred in the 1940s in the cores from the Puget Sound Main Basin, whereas in Hood Canal such peak was observed in the 1970s, showing basin-specific differences in inputs of combustion byproducts. This system showed relatively higher inputs from softwood combustion than the northeastern U.S. The historical variations in char-BC concentrations were consistent with shifts in climate indices, suggesting an influence of climate oscillations on wildfire events. Environmental loading of combustion byproducts thus appears as a complex function of urbanization, fuel usage, combustion technology, environmental policies, and climate conditions.     

Demonstrations of coal-fired oxy-fuel technology for carbon capture and storage and issues with commercial deployment

As one of the three major carbon capture technologies associated with carbon capture and storage (CCS), oxy-fuel technology is currently undergoing rapid development with a number of international demonstration projects of scale 10–30 MW_e having commenced and units with a scale of 250–300 MW_e emerging in the progression towards commercialisation. Industrial scale testing of coal combustion and burners is also being conducted by technology vendors.The paper details the current international status of the technology; the contributions of current demonstrations; and a roadmap for commercial deployment.At its current state of maturity oxy-fuel technology may be considered semi-commercial, in that even if a unit was economically viable and could be provided by a vendor, the generator and vendor would need to share the technical risk. This is because guarantees could not at present be provided for operating characteristics associated with mature technologies such as reliability, emissions, ramp rate and spray control. This is due to the maturity of the technology associated with the capability of vendors and associated design and operational uncertainties, associated with a lack of plant experience at scale.The projected development of oxy-fuel technology for first-generation plant is provided, using an ASU for oxygen supply, standard furnace designs with externally recirculated flue gas, and limited thermal integration of the ASU and compression plant with the power plant. Potential features of second generation technology are listed.Listed issues delaying deployment indicate that market, economic, legal and issues of public acceptance are more significant than technical barriers.     

The electron density distribution in pyridinium and bipyridylium compounds and its relevance to their adsorption by expanding lattice clays

Abstract

Charge distributions in 1, 1'‐ethylene‐2, 2'‐bipyridylium (diquat), 1,1'‐dimethyl‐4,4'‐bipyridylium (paraquat) and 1‐methylpyridinium organocations were calculated by a Complete Neglect of Differential Overlap semi‐empirical quantum mechanical procedure. The data show that the positive charges in the organocations are distributed around the molecules and are greatest in the positions ortho and para to the heterocyclic nitrogen atoms. Earlier interpretations of the mechanisms of adsorption of paraquat and diquat by soils and clays assumed that the charges were located in the heterocyclic nitrogen atoms. Here some consideration is given to the influence of the charge delocalizations on the processes of adsorption by montmorillonite and vermiculite clay preparations.