Participatory adaptation planning and costing. Applications in agricultural adaptation in western Kenya

Adaptation to climate change is an important theme in the strategy and policy of institutions around the world. Billions of dollars are allocated every year, based on cost estimates of actions to cope with, or benefit from the impacts of climate change. Costing adaptation, however, is complex, involving multiple actors with differing values and a spectrum of possible adaptation strategies and pathways. Currently, expert driven, top-down approaches dominate adaptation costing in practice. These approaches are subject to misallocation, with global funds not always reaching vulnerable communities in most need. This paper introduces an analytical framework called Participatory Social Return on Investment (PSROI), which provides a structured framework for multi-stakeholder planning, selection and valuation of appropriate methods of adaptation. The broader economic, social and environmental impacts of these adaptation actions are explored and valued through a participatory process. PSROI is strength-based, building local capacity and generating stakeholder buy-in. The financial valuation generated provides an additional tool for examining and prioritizing adaptation actions based on their impact. Results from a pilot of the PSROI framework in a smallholder farming community in Western Kenya provide empirical evidence for the difference between expert driven desk-based and ground-based cost estimates that involve local communities. There was an approximate 70 % reduction in the valuation of an agroforestry intervention, selected by the local community, when compared between the desk-based valuation and that of the local community, using primary field data. This reduced expectation of the desk-based PSROI is justified by coherent explanations such as lack of knowledge about the intervention, misconception about the potential costs and benefits, and the risk-averse nature of the farmers. These and other important insights are fundamental for planning and decision-making, as well as appropriate targeting and delivery of funding for adaptation.     

The secondary adjustment of clutch size in red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus)

More than a half century ago, the British ornithologist David Lack suggested that parent birds may use brood reduction to track uncertain food, a process facilitated by the asynchronous hatching of their young. Lack sketched the logic of asymmetric sibling rivalry: the phenotypic handicap imposed upon last-hatched marginal offspring renders their growth and survival conditional upon uncertain ecological conditions while buffering first-hatched core offspring from the inimical effects of overcrowding during periods of stringency. Though subjected to numerous indirect tests in short-term studies, the central prediction of Lack's hypothesis - that parents use marginal offspring to track unpredictable brood-rearing conditions and thus achieve a secondary adjustment of clutch size - has never been tested directly. Here we present the results of a 7-year study of marsh-nesting red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) showing that (1) brood size tracks interannual variability in growth and survival of nestlings, (2) the growth and mortality of marginal but not core offspring is contingent upon stochastic environmental conditions (mean air temperature) during brood rearing, (3) the mortality of marginal but not core offspring is strongly affected by developmental uncertainty in the form of both experimental and natural alterations of brood size, (4) the phenotypic handicap of hatching asynchrony buffers core offspring from poor growth conditions, but (5) its effects upon marginal nestlings are reversible when growth conditions are favourable and especially when brood size is reduced either experimentally or via hatching failure. The presence of marginal offspring ensures that blackbird parents are not left with a too small brood when brood-rearing conditions are favourable. Parents create two castes of progeny: marginal offspring that are strongly affected by both ecological and developmental stochasticity, and core offspring that are not.     

A hierarchical analysis of terrestrial ecosystem model Biome-BGC: Equilibrium analysis and model calibration

The increasing complexity of ecosystem models represents a major difficulty in tuning model parameters and analyzing simulated results. To address this problem, this study develops a hierarchical scheme that simplifies the Biome-BGC model into three functionally cascaded tiers and analyzes them sequentially. The first-tier model focuses on leaf-level ecophysiological processes; it simulates evapotranspiration and photosynthesis with prescribed leaf area index (LAI). The restriction on LAI is then lifted in the following two model tiers, which analyze how carbon and nitrogen is cycled at the whole-plant level (the second tier) and in all litter/soil pools (the third tier) to dynamically support the prescribed canopy. In particular, this study analyzes the steady state of these two model tiers by a set of equilibrium equations that are derived from Biome-BGC algorithms and are based on the principle of mass balance. Instead of spinning-up the model for thousands of climate years, these equations are able to estimate carbon/nitrogen stocks and fluxes of the target (steady-state) ecosystem directly from the results obtained by the first-tier model. The model hierarchy is examined with model experiments at four AmeriFlux sites. The results indicate that the proposed scheme can effectively calibrate Biome-BGC to simulate observed fluxes of evapotranspiration and photosynthesis; and the carbon/nitrogen stocks estimated by the equilibrium analysis approach are highly consistent with the results of model simulations. Therefore, the scheme developed in this study may serve as a practical guide to calibrate/analyze Biome-BGC; it also provides an efficient way to solve the problem of model spin-up, especially for applications over large regions. The same methodology may help analyze other similar ecosystem models as well.     

Air lead concentrations in Birmingham,England — a comparison between levels inside and outside inner-city homes

Air lead concentrations were monitored for seven consecutive days at two locations inside and one location immediately outside 97 houses in inner-city Birmingham. Concentrations in the bedroom and playroom were similar to each other, but usually lower than those found outdoors. The mean internal air lead concentration was 0.26 g/m³ (n=1206) and the mean external concentration, 0.43 g/m³ (n=605). The mean of the individual internal:external ratios was 0.61 and similar to others cited in the literature. The study indicates that, in the absence of any major internal sources of lead, the mean external air lead concentration is a good predictor of the mean air internal air lead concentration.     

Assessing the natural attenuation of organic contaminants in aquifers using plume-scale electron and carbon balances: model development with analysis of uncertainty and parameter sensitivity

A quantitative methodology is described for the field-scale performance assessment of natural attenuation using plume-scale electron and carbon balances. This provides a practical framework for the calculation of global mass balances for contaminant plumes, using mass inputs from the plume source, background groundwater and plume residuals in a simplified box model. Biodegradation processes and reactions included in the analysis are identified from electron acceptors, electron donors and degradation products present in these inputs. Parameter values used in the model are obtained from data acquired during typical site investigation and groundwater monitoring studies for natural attenuation schemes. The approach is evaluated for a UK Permo-Triassic Sandstone aquifer contaminated with a plume of phenolic compounds. Uncertainty in the model predictions and sensitivity to parameter values was assessed by probabilistic modelling using Monte Carlo methods. Sensitivity analyses were compared for different input parameter probability distributions and a base case using fixed parameter values, using an identical conceptual model and data set. Results show that consumption of oxidants by biodegradation is approximately balanced by the production of CH4 and total dissolved inorganic carbon (TDIC) which is conserved in the plume. Under this condition, either the plume electron or carbon balance can be used to determine contaminant mass loss, which is equivalent to only 4% of the estimated source term. This corresponds to a first order, plume-averaged, half-life of > 800 years. The electron balance is particularly sensitive to uncertainty in the source term and dispersive inputs. Reliable historical information on contaminant spillages and detailed site investigation are necessary to accurately characterise the source term. The dispersive influx is sensitive to variability in the plume mixing zone width. Consumption of aqueous oxidants greatly exceeds that of mineral oxidants in the plume, but electron acceptor supply is insufficient to meet the electron donor demand and the plume will grow. The aquifer potential for degradation of these contaminants is limited by high contaminant concentrations and the supply of bioavailable electron acceptors. Natural attenuation will increase only after increased transport and dilution.     

Influence of uraniferous black shales on cadmium,molybdenum and selenium in soils and crop plants in the Deog-Pyoun-g area of Korea

The influence of naturally occurring uraniferous black shales on cadmium, molybdenum and selenium concentrations in soils and plants is examined. The possible implications of element concentrations to animal and human health are considered for the Deog-Pyoung area. Geochemical surveys have been undertaken within 13 river tributary valleys in the area underlain by uraniferous black shales and black slates or grey chlorite schists. Sampling of rocks, soils and plants has been carried out along transect lines within each valley. Samples were analysed for trace elements by Inductively Coupled Plasma Atomic Emission Spectrometry (ICP-AES) and for uranium by Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA). Soil pH, cation exchange capacity, loss on ignition and particle size distribution have been measured for selected samples. Average trace element concentrations of the Okchon uraniferous black shales were 6.3 μg g⁻¹ Cd, 136 μg g⁻¹ Mo and 8.6 μg g⁻¹ Se. Soils derived from these rocks tend to reflect their extreme geochemical composition. Trace element concentrations in alluvial soils derived in part from these black shales averaged 1.2 μg g⁻¹ Cd, 20 μg g⁻¹ Mo and 1.5 μg g⁻¹ Se. Trace element concentrations in plants were found to be influenced by those of soils. Cadmium accumulated in tobacco leaves up to 46 μg g⁻¹ (D.M.) and leafy plants such as lettuce contain up to 0.5 μg g⁻¹ Se (D.M.). In addition to total concentrations in soils, soil pH is a major factor influencing uptake of Mo into crop plants and soil texture for Se. Concentrations of trace elements in plants also varied between plant species. The relative concentrations of Cd were found to vary in the order tobacco > lettuce > red pepper > rice grain. Elevated concentrations of Cd in crop plants and in tobacco may possibly have deleterious effects on human health in this area. The low Cu:Mo ratio in rice stalk of 2.65:1 may be associated with disturbed Cu metabolism in ruminant animals which regularly consume this material.     

Sensitivity to change for low-ANC eastern US lakes and streams and brook trout populations under alternative sulfate deposition scenarios

A weight-of-evidence approach was used by the US National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) to assess the sensitivity of chemistry and biology of lakes and streams to hypothesized changes in sulfate deposition over the next 50 years. The analyses focused on projected effects in response to differences in the magnitude and the timing of changes in sulfate deposition in the north-eastern United States, the Mid-Appalachian Highlands, and the Southern Blue Ridge Province. A number of tools was used to provide the weight of evidence that is required to have confidence in an assessment that has many uncertainties because of the complexity of the systems for which the projections of future conditions were made and because of limited historical data. The MAGIC model provided the projections of chemical changes in response to alternative deposition scenarios. Projected chemical conditions were input into biological models that evaluate effects on fish populations. The sensitivity of water chemistry and brook trout resources to the hypothesized changes in deposition was found to be greatest in the Adirondacks and Mid-Atlantic Highlands. Under the hypothesized sulfur deposition reduction scenarios, chemical conditions suitable for fish were projected to improve 20-30 years sooner than with the scenario that assumed no new legislated controls. Other lines of evidence, e.g. other models, field observations, and paleolimnological findings, were used to evaluate uncertainty in the projections. Model parameter/calibration uncertainty for the chemical models and population sampling uncertainty were explicitly quantified. Model structural uncertainties were bracketed using model comparisons, recent measured changes, and paleolimnological reconstructions of historical changes in lake chemistry.     

Biogeochemical characterisation of a coal tar distillate plume

The distillation of acidified coal tars for up to 50 years has given rise to a phenol plume approximately 500 m long, 50 m deep and containing up to 15 g l(-1) dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the Triassic Sandstones aquifer. A conceptual biogeochemical model based on chemical and microbiological analysis of groundwater samples has been developed as a preliminary to more detailed studies of the controls on natural attenuation. While the development of redox zones and the production of methane and carbon dioxide provide evidence of natural attenuation, it appears that degradation is slow. The existence of sulphate in the plume indicates that this electron acceptor has not been depleted and that consequently methanogenesis is probably limited. Based on a simple estimate of sulphate input concentration, a half-life of about 15 years has been estimated for sulphate reduction. Geochemical modelling predicts that increased alkalinity within the plume has not led to carbonate precipitation, and thus within the limits of accuracy of the measurement, alkalinity may reflect the degree of biodegradation. This implies a loss of around 18% of the DOC over a 30-year period. Despite limited degradation, microbial studies show that there are diverse microbial communities in the aquifer with the potential for both anaerobic and aerobic biodegradation. Microbial activity was found to be greatest at the leading edge of the plume where DOC concentrations are 60 mg l(-1) or less, but activity could still be observed in more contaminated samples even though cells could not be cultured. The study suggests that degradation may be limited by the high phenol concentrations within the core of the plume, but that once diluted by dispersion, natural attenuation may proceed. More detailed studies to confirm these initial findings are identified and form the basis of associated papers.