Methodological uncertainties in multi-regression analyses of middle-atmospheric data series

Multi-regression analyses have often been used recently to detect trends, in particular in ozone or temperature data sets in the stratosphere. The confidence in detecting trends depends on a number of factors which generate uncertainties. Part of these uncertainties comes from the random variability and these are what is usually considered. They can be statistically estimated from residual deviations between the data and the fitting model. However, interferences between different sources of variability affecting the data set, such as the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation (QBO), volcanic aerosols, solar flux variability and the trend can also be a critical source of errors. This type of error has hitherto not been well quantified. In this work an artificial data series has been generated to carry out such estimates. The sources of errors considered here are: the length of the data series, the dependence on the choice of parameters used in the fitting model and the time evolution of the trend in the data series. Curves provided here, will permit future studies to test the magnitude of the methodological bias expected for a given case, as shown in several real examples. It is found that, if the data series is shorter than a decade, the uncertainties are very large, whatever factors are chosen to identify the source of the variability. However the errors can be limited when dealing with natural variability, if a sufficient number of periods (for periodic forcings) are covered by the analysed dataset. However when analysing the trend, the response to volcanic eruption induces a bias, whatever the length of the data series. The signal to noise ratio is a key factor: doubling the noise increases the period for which data is required in order to obtain an error smaller than 10%, from 1 to 3-4 decades. Moreover, if non-linear trends are superimposed on the data, and if the length of the series is longer than five years, a non-linear function has to be used to estimate trends. When applied to real data series, and when a breakpoint in the series occurs, the study reveals that data extending over 5 years are needed to detect a significant change in the slope of the ozone trends at mid-latitudes.     

Pharmacopollution and Household Waste Medicine (HWM): how reverse logistics is environmentally important to Brazil

Pharmacopollution is a public health and environmental outcome of some active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) and endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDC) dispersed through water and/or soil. Its most important sources are the pharmaceutical industry, healthcare facilities (e.g., hospitals), livestock, aquaculture, and households (patients’ excretion and littering). The last source is the focus of this article. Research questions are “What is the Household Waste Medicine (HWM) phenomenon?”, “How HWM and pharmacopollution are related?”, and “Why is a reverse logistic system necessary for HWM in Brazil?” This article followed the seven steps proposed by Rother (2007) for a systematic review based on the Cochrane Handbook and the National Health Service (NHS) Center for Reviews Dissemination (CDR) Report. The HWM phenomenon brings many environmental, public health, and, social challenges. The insufficient data is a real challenge to assessing potential human health risks and API concentrations. Therefore, the hazard of long-term exposure to low concentrations of pharmacopollutants and the combined effects of API mixtures is still uncertain. HWM are strongly related to pharmacopollution, as this review shows. The Brazilian HWM case is remarkable because it is the fourth pharmaceutical market (US$ 65,971 billion), with a wide number of private pharmacies and drugstores (3.3: 10,000 pharmacy/inhabitants), self-medication habits, and no national take-back program. The HWM generation is estimated in 56.6 g/per capita, or 10,800 t/year. The absence of a reverse logistics for HWM can lead to serious environmental and public health challenges. The sector agreement for HWM is currently under public consultation.     

Monosomy 8q: Prenatal diagnosis and autopsy findings

The autopsy findings of a fetus with deletion of the long arm of chromosome 8 are described. Many of the features are similar to those of the tricho-rhino-phalangeal syndromes, types I and II, which are associated with deletions on chromosome 8q24. Other findings in this case, such as total absence of the corpus callosum and intestinal malrotation, have not been described in these syndromes. Genes involved in the development of the latter malformations may reside in adjacent regions on the long arm of chromosome 8. An elevated serum level of beta human chorionic gonadotropin (βhCG) was found during pregnancy. This aberration should be included with other chromosomal disorders which may be detected by this test.     

Determination of mono-, di- and trinitronaphthalenes in soil samples contaminated by explosives

We investigated the extraction of eight mono-, di- and trinitronaphthalenes from soil samples by ultrasonic, respectively, soxhlet extraction. Sonication was the more convenient procedure with a usually higher repeatability than the soxhlet method. All extracts were analysed by high-performance liquid chromatography with diode array detection. These methods were used to determine the concentration of nitronaphthalenes in five soil samples polluted by explosives. The most abundant contaminants were 1,5- and 1,8-dinitronaphthalene as well as 1,3,5-, 1,3,8- and 1,4,5-trinitronaphthalene. In all samples the sum of trinitronaphthalenes exceeded the sum of mono- and dinitronaphthalenes. It is recommendable to include these eight compounds in the analytical exploration of sites contaminated by explosives.     

Behavior of nine selected emerging trace organic contaminants in an artificial recharge system supplemented with a reactive barrier

Artificial recharge improves several water quality parameters, but has only minor effects on recalcitrant pollutants. To improve the removal of these pollutants, we added a reactive barrier at the bottom of an infiltration basin. This barrier contained aquifer sand, vegetable compost, and clay and was covered with iron oxide dust. The goal of the compost was to sorb neutral compounds and release dissolved organic carbon. The release of dissolved organic carbon should generate a broad range of redox conditions to promote the transformation of emerging trace organic contaminants (EOCs). Iron oxides and clay increase the range of sorption site types. In the present study, we examined the effectiveness of this barrier by analyzing the fate of nine EOCs. Water quality was monitored before and after constructing the reactive barrier. Installation of the reactive barrier led to nitrate-, iron-, and manganese-reducing conditions in the unsaturated zone below the basin and within the first few meters of the saturated zone. Thus, the behavior of most EOCs changed after installing the reactive barrier. The reactive barrier enhanced the removal of some EOCs, either markedly (sulfamethoxazole, caffeine, benzoylecgonine) or slightly (trimethoprim) and decreased the removal rates of compounds that are easily degradable under aerobic conditions (ibuprofen, paracetamol). The barrier had no remarkable effect on 1H-benzotriazole and tolyltriazole.     

Changes in the spatial patterns of human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) in Europe 1990–2006

Understanding patterns, dynamics, and drivers of land use is crucial for improving our ability to cope with sustainability challenges. The human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) framework provides a set of integrated socio-ecological indicators that quantify how land use alters energy flows in ecosystems via land conversions and biomass harvest. Thus, HANPP enables researchers to systematically and consistently assess the outcome of changes in land cover and land-use intensity across spatio-temporal scales. Yet, fine-scale HANPP assessments are so far missing, an information important to address site-specific ecological implications of land use. Here, we provide such an assessment for Europe at a 1-km scale for the years 1990, 2000, and 2006. The assessment was based on a consistent land-use/biomass flow dataset derived from statistical data, remote sensing maps, and a dynamic global vegetation model. We find that HANPP in Europe amounted to ~43 % of potential productivity, well above the global average of ~25 %, with little variation in the European average since 1990. HANPP was highest in Central Europe and lower in Northern and Southern Europe. At the regional level, distinct changes in land-use intensity were observed, most importantly the decline of cropland areas and yields following the breakdown of socialism in Eastern Europe and the subsequent recovery after 2000, or strong dynamics related to storm events that resulted in massive salvage loggings. In sum, however, these local dynamics cancelled each other out at the aggregate level. We conclude that this finding warrants further research into aspects of the scale-dependency of dynamics and stability of land use.     

über die Notwendigkeit der wirkungsorientierten Analytik in einer umfassenden Wasserforschung

Ohne Zusammenfassung Verantwortliche Herausgeber: Jan Schwarzbauer · Peter Heininger · Evelyn Claus

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