Association between prenatal sonographic findings and post-natal outcomes in 30 cases of isolated spina bifida aperta

This study presents 30 cases of fetal isolated spina bifida aperta (SBA) to identify prenatal ultrasound findings that could predict the prognosis. Comparisons between surviving patients who had normal (group 1) and abnormal (group 2) post-natal neurological outcomes were made for three different prenatal signs, that is, site of vertebral lesion, presence and degree of ventriculomegaly and presence of talipes. The site of the lesion was the most significant outcome predictor, as high spinal dysraphisms were observed in 2 patients (2/7–28.6%) in group 1 and in 15 patients (15/19–79.0%) in group 2 (p = 0.03). The presence of fetal ventriculomegaly was associated with impaired post-natal neurological development, as it occurred in 4 patients (4/7–57.1%) in group 1 and in 18 patients (18/19–94.7%) in group 2 (p = 0.04). The presence of talipes did not significantly differ between the two groups. Patients with abnormal intellectual outcome (8/26–30.8%) had significantly greater (p = 0.018) lateral ventricle/hemisphere ratios (mean = 0.74, standard deviation = 0.13) than those with normal intellectual development (mean = 0.54, standard deviation = 0.18). Mean post-natal follow-up was at 23 months (standard deviation = 15 months). Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sovereign financial disaster risk management: The case of Mexico

In 2006, Mexico became the first transition country to transfer part of its public-sector natural catastrophe risk to the international reinsurance and capital markets. The Mexican case is of considerable interest to highly exposed transition and developing countries, many of which are considering similar transactions. Risk financing instruments can assure governments of sufficient post-disaster capital to provide emergency response, disaster relief to the affected population and repair public infrastructure. The costs of financial instruments, however, can greatly exceed expected losses, and for this reason it is important to closely examine their benefits and alternatives. This paper analyzes the Mexican case from the perspective of the risk cedent (the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit), which was informed by analyses provided by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The rationale for a government to insure its contingent liabilities is presented along with the fiscal, legal and institutional context of the Mexican transaction. Using publicly available data, the paper scrutinizes the choice the authorities faced between two different risk-transfer instruments: reinsurance and a catastrophe bond. Making use of IIASA's catastrophe simulation model (CATSIM), this financial risk management decision is analyzed within the context of a public investment decision.     

Incorporating anthropogenic variables into a species distribution model to map gypsy moth risk

This paper presents a novel methodology for multi-scale and multi-type spatial data integration in support of insect pest risk/vulnerability assessment in the contiguous United States. Probability of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) establishment is used as a case study. A neural network facilitates the integration of variables representing dynamic anthropogenic interaction and ecological characteristics. Neural network model (back-propagation network [BPN]) results are compared to logistic regression and multi-criteria evaluation via weighted linear combination, using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) and a simple threshold assessment. The BPN provided the most accurate infestation-forecast predictions producing an AUC of 0.93, followed by multi-criteria evaluation (AUC = 0.92) and logistic regression (AUC = 0.86) when independently validating using post model infestation data. Results suggest that BPN can provide valuable insight into factors contributing to introduction for invasive species whose propagation and establishment requirements are not fully understood. The integration of anthropogenic and ecological variables allowed production of an accurate risk model and provided insight into the impact of human activities.     

Restoring Forests and Associated Ecosystem Services on Appalachian Coal Surface Mines

Surface coal mining in Appalachia has caused extensive replacement of forest with non-forested land cover, much of which is unmanaged and unproductive. Although forested ecosystems are valued by society for both marketable products and ecosystem services, forests have not been restored on most Appalachian mined lands because traditional reclamation practices, encouraged by regulatory policies, created conditions poorly suited for reforestation. Reclamation scientists have studied productive forests growing on older mine sites, established forest vegetation experimentally on recent mines, and identified mine reclamation practices that encourage forest vegetation re-establishment. Based on these findings, they developed a Forestry Reclamation Approach (FRA) that can be employed by coal mining firms to restore forest vegetation. Scientists and mine regulators, working collaboratively, have communicated the FRA to the coal industry and to regulatory enforcement personnel. Today, the FRA is used routinely by many coal mining firms, and thousands of mined hectares have been reclaimed to restore productive mine soils and planted with native forest trees. Reclamation of coal mines using the FRA is expected to restore these lands’ capabilities to provide forest-based ecosystem services, such as wood production, atmospheric carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, watershed protection, and water quality protection to a greater extent than conventional reclamation practices.     

Biomonitoring for exposure to multiple trace elements via analysis of urine from participants in the study of metals and assisted reproductive technologies (SMART)

Humans are exposed to concentrations of multiple trace elements through a variety of background sources; many are suspected reproductive toxicants. Prior to investigating associations between trace elements and human reproductive health, potential biomarkers of exposure should be characterized by sources of variability in the population at risk. Factors influencing elemental exposure should also be identified to ensure their consideration as potential confounding variables. The principal aim of this study is to characterize sources of variability for 19 trace elements measured in urine specimens collected from 55 women and 36 male partners completing a 1st cycle of in vitro fertilization (IVF). Urine specimens were analyzed using a biomonitoring method based on inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Randomly selected urine specimens (～6%) were analyzed in duplicate, and these data were used to characterize sources of variability. Nine trace elements including As, Ba, Cd, Cs, Co, Cu, Mn, Mo, and Zn, were quantified in most specimens, indicating their utility in future epidemiologic studies of trace elements exposure and IVF outcomes. With few exceptions, normalizing urine using the traditional creatinine-correction procedure, or an alternative approach based on a linear regression model, increased residual variability only slightly. Sex and race appear to be important factors to consider in epidemiologic studies conducted in this population. Urine concentrations for most elements are similar to those reported in the 2005-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES); however, differences in others may indicate regional trends or a unique exposure history for this infertile study population.     

Heat Gain From Thermal Radiation Through Protective Clothing With Different Insulation,Reflectivity and Vapour Permeability

The heat transferred through protective clothing under long wave radiation compared to a reference condition without radiant stress was determined in thermal manikin experiments. The influence of clothing insulation and reflectivity, and the interaction with wind and wet underclothing were considered. Garments with different outer materials and colours and additionally an aluminised reflective suit were combined with different number and types of dry and pre-wetted underwear layers. Under radiant stress, whole body heat loss decreased, i.e., heat gain occurred compared to the reference. This heat gain increased with radiation intensity, and decreased with air velocity and clothing insulation. Except for the reflective outer layer that showed only minimal heat gain over the whole range of radiation intensities, the influence of the outer garments’ material and colour was small with dry clothing. Wetting the underclothing for simulating sweat accumulation, however, caused differing effects with higher heat gain in less permeable garments.     

社会生态回复与社会冲突:瑞典水管理制度和战略适应

处理社会生态系统的不确定性和复杂性,深深地有赖于自然资源用户从使人惊讶的生态事件和危机中学习并适应的能力.本文分析了为什幺学习过程受自然资源用户中间的战略行为的影响,怎样影响,并且社会冲突是怎样受到社会和生态不确定性影响的.本文的主张是自然资源用户中的社会冲突严重抑止了从社会生态系统中学习并适应的可能性.这是结合了政治学、实验经济学、社会心理学并研究了一个分析案例后得出的,该案例研究了瑞典水管理制度中复杂的社会冲突和制度变化.本文还探讨了在瑞典水管理制度中,制度背景在确定学习过程的结果中扮演的关键性角色,并因此突出了以前在社会生态系统中学习过程和制度变化的较不详尽的政治方面.