Threshold Effect in Residential Water Demand: Evidence from Smooth Transition Models

This paper aims to empirically examine the presence of nonlinear behavior in residential water demand for the case of Tunisia. We specifically explore the existence of nonlinearity with respect to the magnitude of water price changes through a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) framework and an increasing multi-step water pricing scheme. Using quarterly time series for the period 1980–2007 which describes residential water consumption and its main determinants, our results provide strong evidence that water consumption responds nonlinearly to the extent of price changes for the two consumption blocks considered. Water price elasticities are found to be higher when variation in tariffs surpasses a given threshold. More precisely, we find a unit elastic water demand for lower block consumers (low-income households) when price changes exceed a threshold of roughly 5%. For the upper block consumers (high-income households), water consumption is less elastic in comparison to low-income households, but still significant when the price variation exceeds a threshold of 2.6%. Our findings imply that increasing the length of the lower block of consumption may help achieve goals of social equity, while increasing tariff progressivity, at least for upper block consumers, helps promote water saving.

     

Automated data analysis to rapidly derive and communicate ecological insights from satellite-tag data: A case study of reintroduced red kites

Analysis of satellite-telemetry data mostly occurs long after it has been collected, due to the time and effort needed to collate and interpret such material. Delayed reporting reduces the usefulness of such data for nature conservation where timely information about animal movements is required. To counter this problem, we present a novel approach which combines automated analysis of satellite-telemetry data with rapid communication of insights derived from such data. A relatively simple algorithm (based on radial and angular velocity calculated from fixes) allowed instantaneous detection of excursions away from settlement areas and automated calculation of home ranges on the remaining data. Automating the detection of both excursions and home-range calculations enabled us to disseminate ecological insights from satellite-tag data instantaneously through a dedicated web portal. The automated analysis, interpretation, and communication of satellite-tag and other ecological data offer clear benefits to nature conservation research and practice.     

Seasonal dynamics of macro-algae in the South Lake of Tunis

The macro-algae communities observed in the south lake of Tunis are characterized by the predominance of nitrophilous algae which are in the order of biomass importance:Ulva, Cladophora andEnteromorpha. We have noted seasonal changes of alga distribution. The wind appears to be one of the most important factors influencing this distribution. The total biomass reaches a maximum in the spring. Rapid decomposition of the biomass leads to a severe ecological imbalance, resulting in crises of anoxia and fish death. A restoration project has already started. It aims at removal of contaminated muds and the introduction of a new circulation system. The main objectives of this work were to collect information on the distribution and biomass of the phytobenthic communities as a first step in the constitution of a database for further comparison.     

Comparison of absolute and relative growth patterns among five <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinna nobilis</Emphasis> populations along the Tunisian coastline: an information theory approach

The variability in absolute and relative growth of Pinna nobilis along the Tunisian coastline was investigated. Five populations of P. nobilis were sampled, three from northern and two from eastern Tunisia. The specimens were aged and ten morphometric characters were measured on each individual. To test if differences existed in absolute and relative growth patterns among the different populations an information theory approach was followed. For absolute growth, von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, the logistic and the power models were fitted in combination with three assumptions regarding inter-population differences in absolute growth patterns: no differences, differences among all five populations or just between northern and eastern populations. The assumption of common absolute growth parameters among all five populations had the greatest support by the data, whereas the assumption of different growth patterns among all five populations had no support. Von Bertalanffy growth model and the power model were both equally supported by the data (while Gompertz had considerably less support and the logistic model had no support), and thus it may not be definitely concluded whether P. nobilis grows asymptotically or not. The P. nobilis populations of the Tunisian coastline had a slow growth and up to an age of ∼ 9 years their shells were smaller than from all other reported populations in the Mediterranean. For relative growth, apart from the classical allometric model Y = aX ^b , relating the size of a part of a body Y to another reference dimension X, more complicated models were used in combination with the three abovementioned assumptions regarding inter-population differences. Those models, of the form logY = f (logX), either assumed breakpoints in the relative growth trajectories or non-linearities. For most morphometric characters, the classical allometric model had no support by the data and more complicated models were necessary. In most cases, different relative growth either among all five populations or between the northern and eastern population groups was supported by the data. Further investigation is needed to relate the morphological differences observed among different populations of P. nobilis to environmental factors.     

Estimating the complexity of bird song by using capture-recapture approaches from community ecology

Repertoire size, the number of unique song or syllable types in the repertoire, is a widely used measure of song complexity in birds, but it is difficult to calculate this exactly in species with large repertoires. A new method of repertoire size estimation applies species richness estimation procedures from community ecology, but such capture-recapture approaches have not been much tested. Here, we establish standardized sampling schemes and estimation procedures using capture-recapture models for syllable repertoires from 18 bird species, and suggest how these may be used to tackle problems of repertoire estimation. Different models, with different assumptions regarding the heterogeneity of the use of syllable types, performed best for different species with different song organizations. For most species, models assuming heterogeneous probability of occurrence of syllables (so-called detection probability) were selected due to the presence of both rare and frequent syllables. Capture-recapture estimates of syllable repertoire size from our small sample did not differ significantly from previous estimates using larger samples of count data. However, the enumeration of syllables in 15 songs yielded significantly lower estimates than previous reports. Hence, heterogeneity in detection probability of syllables should be addressed when estimating repertoire size. This is neglected using simple enumeration procedures, but is taken into account when repertoire size is estimated by appropriate capture-recapture models adjusted for species-specific song organization characteristics. We suggest that such approaches, in combination with standardized sampling, should be applied in species with potentially large repertoire size. On the other hand, in species with small repertoire size and homogenous syllable usage, enumerations may be satisfactory. Although researchers often use repertoire size as a measure of song complexity, listeners to songs are unlikely to count entire repertoires and they may rely on other cues, such as syllable detection probability.Communicated by A. Cockburn     

Factors driving the seasonal dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia species and domoic acid at mussel farming in the SW Mediterranean Sea

ABSTRACT

The seasonal variations in Pseudo-nitzschia species and domoic acid (DA) concentration were investigated, at three shellfish farms in SW coastal Mediterranean. In parallel, the toxicity of mussels was tested. Two distinct groups of species were enumerated according to morphology and size (Pseudo-nizschia delicatissima and P. seriata groups). DA was detected over a nine-week period from July to October 2012 in the Lagoon, with a maximum concentration recorded in July (12.71?ng?DA?L^?1). DA was positively correlated with the presence of P. seriata-group and P. delicatissima-group and was mostly occurred during P limitation period in seawater. No DA was found in mussels that were collected during the period of DA absence in seawater. Our results suggest that temperature, salinity, inorganic and organic nutrients were significant for the seasonal dynamics of P. seriata and P. delicatissima groups, but that the P limitation was the most driving factor for DA production in these areas. The relative influence of environmental factors should be further studied to better understand the recent surfacing of massive blooms of toxigenic Pseudo-nitzschia in SW Mediterranean coast.     

Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.     

An entitlement approach to the challenges of mangrove management in El Salvador

This paper summarizes those factors that have contributed to the degradation of the mangroves in El Salvador, and examines the implications of proposed changes in property rights to the mangroves for poor coastal communities. Current patterns of extraction and conversion in the mangrove ecosystem in El Salvador can be viewed through an entitlement lens that confers property right upon some actors, for certain uses, and denies them to others. Unfortunately, the present system of laws and regulations that governs resource use in the mangroves is contradictory and confusing. A number of laws currently are active that give entirely different directives about the use and transformation of the ecosystem. The rational and sustainable management of the mangroves cannot be secured without a redefinition of entitlement rights. This redefinition of entitlements, however, should take into account the needs of those whose livelihoods are intimately connected to the health of the ecosystem.     

No evidence for a critical salinity threshold for growth and reproduction in the freshwater snail Physa acuta

The growth and reproduction of the freshwater snail Physa acuta (Gastropoda: Physidae) were measured at various salinity levels (growth: distilled water, 50, 100, 500, 1000 and 5000 microS/cm; reproduction: deionized water, 100, 500, 1000 and 3000 microS/cm) established using the artificial sea salt, Ocean Nature. This was done to examine the assumption that there is no direct effect of salinity on freshwater animals until a threshold, beyond which sub-lethal effects, such as reduction in growth and reproduction, will occur. Growth of P. acuta was maximal in terms of live and dry mass at salinity levels 500-1000 microS/cm. The number of eggs produced per snail per day was maximal between 100 and 1000 microS/cm. Results show that rather than a threshold response to salinity, small rises in salinity (from low levels) can produce increased growth and reproduction until a maximum is reached. Beyond this salinity, further increases result in a decrease in growth and reproduction. Studies on the growth of freshwater invertebrates and fish have generally shown a similar lack of a threshold response. The implications for assessing the effects of salinisation on freshwater organisms need to be further considered.