Reviews

DESIGN ON THE LAND: the development of Landscape Architecture Norman T. Newton Belknap Harvard

COMMUNITY CENTERS AND STUDENT UNIONS Eugene D. Sternberg and Barbara E. Sternberg Van Hostrand Reinhold Company, New York.

DECISION AND CONTROL by Stafford Beer, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, 1966 (3rd printing, 1970)

INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS by Jay W. Forrester, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1961. S.1O.5O.

PRINCIPLES OF SYSTEMS by Jay W. Forrester. Wright‐Allen Press, Inc., Cambridge, Mass., 1968.

PUBLIC INQUIRIES AS AN INSTRUMENT OF GOVERNMENT R.E. Wraith and G.B. Lamb George Allen & Unwin Ltd. for the Royal Institute of Public Administration, London 1971, £4.50.

SYSTEMS APPROACH AND THE CITY M.D. Mesarovic and A. Reisman (eds.) North‐Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam and London, 1972.

SIMULATION IN THE CLASSROOM John L. Taylor and Rex Walford Penguin Books, London, 1972. 45p.

DEVELOPMENT BUILDING: THE TEAM APPROACH C.W. Griffin John Wiley & Sons, Inc. for the American Institute of Architects, New York, 1972.     

Initiation of feeding and salinity tolerance in the pacific lamprey Lampetra tridentata

Changes in salinity tolerance were determined during metamorphosis in Lampetra tridentata. Lampreys in Phase 5 of metamorphosis were unable to withstand salinities>13.4S, while those in Phase 6 survived direct transfer to sea water (30S). This abrupt change in tolerance coincided with the opening of the foregut lumen. Parasitic feeding began at the end of Phase 7 of metamorphosis following the completion of tooth development.     

Causation in risk assessment and management: models, inference, biases, and a microbial risk-benefit case study

Causal inference of exposure-response relations from data is a challenging aspect of risk assessment with important implications for public and private risk management. Such inference, which is fundamentally empirical and based on exposure (or dose)-response models, seldom arises from a single set of data; rather, it requires integrating heterogeneous information from diverse sources and disciplines including epidemiology, toxicology, and cell and molecular biology. The causal aspects we discuss focus on these three aspects: drawing sound inferences about causal relations from one or more observational studies; addressing and resolving biases that can affect a single multivariate empirical exposure-response study; and applying the results from these considerations to the microbiological risk management of human health risks and benefits of a ban on antibiotic use in animals, in the context of banning enrofloxacin or macrolides, antibiotics used against bacterial illnesses in poultry, and the effects of such bans on changing the risk of human food-borne campylobacteriosis infections. The purposes of this paper are to describe novel causal methods for assessing empirical causation and inference; exemplify how to deal with biases that routinely arise in multivariate exposure- or dose-response modeling; and provide a simplified discussion of a case study of causal inference using microbial risk analysis as an example. The case study supports the conclusion that the human health benefits from a ban are unlikely to be greater than the excess human health risks that it could create, even when accounting for uncertainty. We conclude that quantitative causal analysis of risks is a preferable to qualitative assessments because it does not involve unjustified loss of information and is sound under the inferential use of risk results by management.     

On monitoring anthropogenic airborne uranium concentrations and (235)U/(238)U isotopic ratio by Lichen - bio-indicator technique

Lichens are widely used to assess the atmospheric pollution by heavy metals and radionuclides. However, few studies are available in publications on using lichens to qualitatively assess the atmospheric pollution levels. The paper presents research results applying epiphytic lichens as bio-monitors of quantitative atmospheric contamination with uranium. The observations were conducted during 2.5 years in the natural environment. Two experimental sites were used: one in the vicinity of a uranium contamination source, the other one - at a sufficient distance away to represent the background conditions. Air and lichens were sampled at both sites monthly. Epiphytic lichens Hypogimnia physodes were used as bio-indicators. Lichen samples were taken from various trees at about 1.5m from the ground. Air was sampled with filters at sampling stations. The uranium content in lichen and air samples as well as isotopic mass ratios (235)U/(238)U were measured by mass-spectrometer technique after uranium pre-extraction. Measured content of uranium were 1.45 mgkg(-1) in lichen at 2.09 E-04 microgm(-3) in air and 0.106 mgkg(-1) in lichen at 1.13 E-05 microgm(-3) in air. The relationship of the uranium content in atmosphere and that in lichens was determined, C(AIR)=exp(1.1 x C(LICHEN)-12). The possibility of separate identification of natural and man-made uranium in lichens was demonstrated in principle.