Time series analyses of global change data

The hypothesis that statistical analyses of historical time series data can be used to separate the influences of natural variations from anthropogenic sources on global climate change is tested. Point, regional, national, and global temperature data are analyzed. Trend analyses for the period 1901-1987 suggest mean annual temperatures increased (in degrees C per century) globally at the rate of about 0.5, in the USA at about 0.3, in the south-western USA desert region at about 1.2, and at the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in south-eastern Arizona at about 0.8. However, the rates of temperature change are not constant but vary within the 87-year period. Serial correlation and spectral density analysis of the temperature time series showed weak periodicities at various frequencies. The only common periodicity among the temperature series is an apparent cycle of about 43 years. The temperature time series were correlated with the Wolf sunspot index, atmospheric CO(2) concentrations interpolated from the Siple ice core data, and atmospheric CO(2) concentration data from Mauna Loa measurements. Correlation analysis of temperature data with concurrent data on atmospheric CO(2) concentrations and the Wolf sunspot index support previously reported significant correlation over the 1901-1987 period. Correlation analysis between temperature, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, and the Wolf sunspot index for the shorter period, 1958-1987, when continuous Mauna Loa CO(2) data are available, suggest significant correlation between global warming and atmospheric CO(2) concentrations but no significant correlation between global warming and the Wolf sunspot index. This may be because the Wolf sunspot index apparently increased from 1901 until about 1960 and then decreased thereafter, while global warming apparently continued to increase through 1987. Correlation of sunspot activity with global warming may be spurious but additional analyses are required to test this hypothesis. Given the inconclusive correlation between temperature and solar activity, the significant intercorrelation between time, temperature, and atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, and the suggestion of weak periodicity in the temperature data, additional research is needed to separate the anthropogenic component from the natural variability in temperature when assessing local, regional, and global warming trends.     

Lessons from Developing Methods to Study the Relationship of Energy and Water Savings to Housing Conditions and Resident Health

Energy- and water-saving have been promoted as ways of saving money while there has been controversy about the effects (if any) of such measures on resident health. In public housing in the US, energy saving has taken the form of Energy Savings Performance Contracts (ESPC) that pay for renovations out of future savings. In an attempt to test feasibility and pilot research methods we conducted a study of the relationship between gas and water use, exterior heat sensor locations, and basement ventilation with indices developed from resident-reported living conditions and health symptoms in a single housing development. The data sources that we had available to us were not ideal. In particular, we were unable to obtain water use data that coincided in time with our health survey data. Also, we did not have enough surveys in buildings with high water or gas use and had to pool those buildings with other buildings for analysis. Nevertheless, we found several associations between our measures of energy use and resident reports of health symptoms. The associations that we found were generally in the direction that energy and water savings were associated with fewer symptoms and fewer environmental problems. There is a need for studies that obtain better input data but that generally follow the approach we developed.     

The effect of earned and paid media strategies in high visibility enforcement campaigns

The primary objective of this paper is to describe the impact of national seat belt enforcement mobilizations in terms of changes in public awareness, perceptions, and opinions as they relate to Operation ABC (Always Buckle Up). In order to monitor changes in public awareness and perceptions, a number of national telephone surveys were conducted. Survey results indicated that the following characteristics were associated with lower self-reported seat belt use rates: (a) males; (b) 18-34 age group; (c) persons with lower income; (d) persons with lower education; (e) persons living in rural areas; (f) residents of the Northeast, Midwest, and Great Lakes; (g) residents of states with secondary enforcement laws; and (h) persons less likely to read a newspaper and more likely to listen to the radio. Telephone surveys also suggested that the following groups are more likely to fail to properly secure a child under 12: (a) persons who say they have problems securing a child in seat belt; (b) farm belt residents; (c) Hispanic and Latinos; (d) persons who indicate that they always wear a seat belt but indicate they have not in the past month; (e) persons with older vehicles; (f) lower income respondents; (g) residents of the Deep South; (h) internet non-users; and (i) urban men. These findings provide support for some basic guidelines and suggestions for conducting seat belt enforcement activities.     

METHOD TO IDENTIFY EFFECTWE RIPARIAN BUFFER WIDTHS FOR ATLANTIC SALMON HABITAT PROTECTION1

ABSTRACT: Successful restoration of declining anadromous species is dependent upon effective riparian buffer zone management. Natural resource managers, policy developers and local conservation groups require science‐based information concerning the width at which a given buffer will be effective for its stated purpose. This paper summarizes a method developed in 1999 to determine effective riparian buffer widths for Atlantic salmon habitat protection as part of the Atlantic Salmon Conservation Plan for Seven Maine Rivers. A major assumption of the method is that no two buffers are alike with respect to their effectiveness and that various buffer characteristics dictate the required width for a given level of effectiveness. The method uses a predictive model that generates suggested riparian buffer widths as a function of specific, measurable buffer characteristics (such as slope, soil characteristics, and plant community structure and density) that affect buffer function. The method utilizes a variable‐width, two‐zone approach and specifies land uses that are consistent with desired buffer function within the two zones.     

Evidence of abalone (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Haliotis rubra</Emphasis>) diet from combined fatty acid and stable isotope analyses

Abalone are common herbivores throughout temperate and tropical waters, and yet the contribution of red and brown macroalgae to the diet of wild abalone remains unclear. In the northern hemisphere, adult abalone are considered to consume predominantly brown algae, but in the southern hemisphere abalone are thought to prefer red algae. Conventional methods such as gut content analysis and feeding trials provide some insight into diet choice, but the associated biases of these techniques create uncertainty surrounding the aforementioned variability in abalone diet. We use combined stable isotope and fatty acid analysis to determine the relative contribution of red algae, brown algae and detritus/microalgae to the diet of wild abalone in Tasmanian waters. Stable isotopes of carbon suggest that brown algae and/detritus are a more important source of carbon than red algae. Fatty acid analysis confirmed the larger contribution of brown algae to the diet of abalone, and also identified the bacterial and diatom component of detritus to be an important contributor to abalone diet. These results show combined use of chemical tracers to be a promising technique for resolving abalone diet, and challenge current perceptions regarding spatial variability in abalone diet choice.     

Integrated models to support multiobjective ecological restoration decisions

Many objectives motivate ecological restoration, including improving vegetation condition, increasing the range and abundance of threatened species, and improving species richness and diversity. Although models have been used to examine the outcomes of ecological restoration, few researchers have attempted to develop models to account for multiple, potentially competing objectives. We developed a combined state‐and‐transition, species‐distribution model to predict the effects of restoration actions on vegetation condition and extent, bird diversity, and the distribution of several bird species in southeastern Australian woodlands. The actions reflected several management objectives. We then validated the models against an independent data set and investigated how the best management decision might change when objectives were valued differently. We also used model results to identify effective restoration options for vegetation and bird species under a constrained budget. In the examples we evaluated, no one action (improving vegetation condition and extent, increasing bird diversity, or increasing the probability of occurrence for threatened species) provided the best outcome across all objectives. In agricultural lands, the optimal management actions for promoting the occurrence of the Brown Treecreeper (Climacteris picumnus), an iconic threatened species, resulted in little improvement in the extent of the vegetation and a high probability of decreased vegetation condition. This result highlights that the best management action in any situation depends on how much the different objectives are valued. In our example scenario, no management or weed control were most likely to be the best management options to satisfy multiple restoration objectives. Our approach to exploring trade‐offs in management outcomes through integrated modeling and structured decision‐support approaches has wide application for situations in which trade‐offs exist between competing conservation objectives.     

A Method to Assess and Define Environmental Flow Rules for Large Jurisdictional Regions1

Snelder, Ton, Doug Booker, and Nicolas Lamouroux, 2011. A Method to Assess and Define Environmental Flow Rules for Large Jurisdictional Regions. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):828‐840. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00556.x Abstract: Hydrological rules of thumb are used across jurisdictional regions to set minimum flows and allocation limits that apply by default (i.e., when more detailed site‐scale studies have not been carried out). Uniform rules do not account for spatial variation in environmental characteristics, resulting in inconsistent consequences for the protection of ecosystems, and the reliability of water resources. We developed a method for assessing hydrological rules of thumb that describes their consequences for protection of the ecosystem (in terms of retention of physical habitat) and the reliability of the water resource. The method links regionalized flow duration curves, at‐station hydraulic geometry, and generalized physical habitat models to make assessments at many locations across a region. The method estimates, for a given set of rules, the retained physical habitat for specified taxa/life stages and the proportion of the time abstractions are restricted. We applied the method to assess a set of rules that are proposed as default minimum flows and allocation limits for New Zealand rivers. The assessment showed that the minimum flow rules had variable consequences. The method could be used to quantify the tradeoff between environmental protection and water resources availability and reliability.     

A Two‐Decade Watershed Approach to Stream Restoration Log Jam Design and Stream Recovery Monitoring: Finney Creek,Washington

A federal, state, and private partnership leveraged resources and employed a long‐term, systematic approach to improve aquatic habitat degraded by decades of intensive forest management in Finney Creek, a tributary to the Skagit River of Northwest Washington State. After more than a decade of work to reduce sediment sources and the risk of landslides within the watershed, log jam installation commenced in 1999 and progressed downstream through 2010. Log jam design was adapted as experience was gained. A total of 181 log jams, including 60 floating log ballasted jams, were constructed along 12 km of channel. The goal was to alter hydraulic processes that affect aquatic habitat formation along 39 km of stream with emphasis on 18.5 km of lower Finney Creek. Aquatic habitat surveys over a five‐year period show an increase in the area of large pools and an accompanying increase in residual and maximum pool depth in the lower river reach. Channel cross sections show a generally deeper channel at the log jams, better channel definition in the gravel deposits at the head of the log jams, and improved riffle and thalweg development below the log jams. Stream temperature in the upper river decreased by 1.0°F in the first three years, and 1.1°F in the lowest treated reach over nine years. There is a trend of less stream heating over the restoration time period. Photo points show that riparian vegetation is recolonizing gravel bars.     

Lessons from Developing Methods to Study the Relationship of Energy and Water Savings to Housing Conditions and Resident Health

Abstract

Energy- and water-saving have been promoted as ways of saving money while there has been controversy about the effects (if any) of such measures on resident health. In public housing in the US, energy saving has taken the form of Energy Savings Performance Contracts (ESPC) that pay for renovations out of future savings. In an attempt to test feasibility and pilot research methods we conducted a study of the relationship between gas and water use, exterior heat sensor locations, and basement ventilation with indices developed from resident-reported living conditions and health symptoms in a single housing development. The data sources that we had available to us were not ideal. In particular, we were unable to obtain water use data that coincided in time with our health survey data. Also, we did not have enough surveys in buildings with high water or gas use and had to pool those buildings with other buildings for analysis. Nevertheless, we found several associations between our measures of energy use and resident reports of health symptoms. The associations that we found were generally in the direction that energy and water savings were associated with fewer symptoms and fewer environmental problems. There is a need for studies that obtain better input data but that generally follow the approach we developed.