Implications of climate change on mitigation potential estimates for forest sector in India

Climate change is projected to impact forest ecosystems, including biodiversity and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). National level carbon forest sector mitigation potential estimates are available for India; however impacts of projected climate change are not included in the mitigation potential estimates. Change in NPP (in gC/m²/yr) is taken to represent the impacts of climate change. Long term impacts of climate change (2085) on the NPP of Indian forests are available; however no such regional estimates are available for short and medium terms. The present study based on GCM climatology scenarios projects the short, medium and long term impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems especially on NPP using BIOME4 vegetation model. We estimate that under A2 scenario by the year 2030 the NPP changes by (−5) to 40% across different agro-ecological zones (AEZ). By 2050 it increases by 15% to 59% and by 2070 it increases by 34 to 84%. However, under B2 scenario it increases only by 3 to 25%, 3.5 to 34% and (−2.5) to 38% respectively, in the same time periods. The cumulative mitigation potential is estimated to increase by up to 21% (by nearly 1 GtC) under A2 scenario between the years 2008 and 2108, whereas, under B2 the mitigation potential increases only by 14% (646 MtC). However, cumulative mitigation potential estimates obtained from IBIS—a dynamic global vegetation model suggest much smaller gains, where mitigation potential increases by only 6% and 5% during the period 2008 to 2108.     

Building responsiveness to climate change through community based adaptation in Bangladesh

This article explores the drivers, benefits, and challenges to climate change adaptation in Bangladesh. It specifically investigates the “Community Based Adaptation to Climate Change through Coastal Afforestation Program,” a 5-year $5 million adaptation scheme being funded and implemented in part by the Government of Bangladesh, United Nations Development Program, and Global Environment Facility. The article explores how the CBACC-CA builds various types of adaptive capacity in Bangladesh and the extent its design and implementation offers lessons for other adaptation programs around the world. The first part of the study begins by describing its research methods consisting of research interviews, site visits, and a literature review. It then summarizes six primary sectors vulnerable to climate change in Bangladesh: water resources and coastal zones, infrastructure and human settlements, agriculture and food security, forestry and biodiversity, fisheries, and human health. The article next describes the genesis and background behind the CBACC-CA, with an emphasis on components that promote capacity development, demonstration projects, risk reduction, and knowledge management. The article concludes that technology by itself is only a partial component of successful adaptation efforts, and that multiple and integrated adaptation measures that cut across sectors and social, institutional, and infrastructural dimensions are needed to truly build resilience and effectiveness.     

Damage from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami - A quick report

The Tohoku region, Northeast Japan, was hit by a gigantic earthquake which occurred in the Pacific close to Tohoku, and subsequently by a giant tsunami. These hazards have caused huge damage on the eastern coast Japan. The earthquake’s magnitude was 9.0, the strongest ever recorded in Japan. The tsunami was also historical as its run-up height reached over 39 m. As of early May, 2011, over 24 thousand people were reported as dead or missing. Moreover, serious accidents at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plants No.1 were caused by the effects of the tsunami. Therefore, the damage faced by Japanese people can be seen as a giant composite disaster. Although Japan, and the northeast of Japan in particular, has over a long time period increased its preparedness against earthquakes and tsunamis, huge damage still occurred. This paper considers why this tragedy occurred, and what unrecognized factors contributed to the high vulnerability of the area. To assist in answering such questions, this paper presents a timely report of the features of the earthquake and tsunami, the damage they caused, and the early efforts for recovery and reconstruction.     

Health officials’ perceptions of and preparedness for the impacts of climate variability on human health in the Somali region of Ethiopia

A proactive strategy to respond effectively to health impacts related to climate variability, particularly within vulnerable populations, is of vital importance. Such a strategy can be attained if health officials have a deep understanding of how climate variability affects human health and if the resources available for the health care sector are sufficient. This study assessed the perceptions and preparedness of health officials toward climate variability and health impacts in the Somali region of Ethiopia. The resources available for the health care sector were also assessed. The results show that approximately 80% of health officials were aware of the relationship between climate variability and human health impacts, but the majority of them were unable to project the future trend of related health problems in the region. The results also show an inadequate availability of health care resources, particularly in regards to infrastructure, numbers of health professionals, and training on climate variability and health. The results further revealed problems with poor living conditions, such as access to sanitation and safe water, for the majority of people in the study area. Climate variability is thus one of the many factors exacerbating the increasing trend of human health problems in the Somali region. Besides improving training to increase health officials’ knowledge of climate variability and human health impacts, the government should also address other factors that currently hinder a successful response to increasing disease prevalence.     

Managing the cost of emissions for durable,carbon-containing products

We recognize that carbon-containing products do not decay and release CO₂ to the atmosphere instantaneously, but release that carbon over extended periods of time. For an initial production of a stock of carbon-containing product, we can treat the release as a probability distribution covering the time over which that release occurs. The probability distribution that models the carbon release predicts the amount of carbon that is released as a function of time. The use of a probability distribution in accounting for the release of carbon to the atmosphere realizes a fundamental shift from the idea that all carbon-containing products contribute to a single pool that decays in proportion to the size of the stock. Viewing the release of carbon as a continuous probabilistic process introduces some theoretical opportunities not available in the former paradigm by taking advantage of other fields where the use of probability distributions has been prevalent for many decades. In particular, theories developed in the life insurance industry can guide the development of pricing and payment structures for dealing with the costs associated with the oxidation and release of carbon. These costs can arise from a number of proposed policies (cap and trade, carbon tax, social cost of carbon, etc), but in the end they all result in there being a cost to releasing carbon to the atmosphere. If there is a cost to the emitter for CO₂ emissions, payment for that cost will depend on both when the emissions actually occur and how payment is made. Here we outline some of the pricing and payment structures that are possible which result from analogous theories in the life insurance industry. This development not only provides useful constructs for valuing sequestered carbon, but highlights additional motivations for employing a probability distribution approach to unify accounting methodologies for stocks of carbon containing products.     

Impact of Drip Irrigation Method,Soil, and Virus Type on Tomato and Cucumber Contamination

The goal of this study was to better quantify the degree of viral contamination of tomato and cucumber in relationship to virus type, soil type, and irrigation method. Tomatoes and cucumbers were grown in ten-gallon (37.8 L) buckets filled with Pima clay loam or Brazito sandy loam soils. Plants were irrigated with secondary wastewater effluent using surface drip irrigation or subsurface drip irrigation. At specified time intervals irrigation water was seeded with bacteriophages MS-2 and P22, poliovirus type 1 (PV1), enteric adenovirus 40 (Ead 40), and hepatitis A virus. Surface drip irrigation always resulted in viral contamination of both the above and below ground parts of both crops. The roots showed the greatest level of contamination, followed by leaves and fruits. In contrast, with subsurface drip irrigation no viruses were detected in any of the above ground plant surfaces. It was found that under similar soil type and irrigation method, risk of crop contamination was similar for all of the viruses studied. It can be concluded that method of irrigation is the single most critical factor in the contamination trend of different parts of crop plants. Plant parts can be categorized into three groups (root, stem, and leaf/fruit) based on the risk of viral contamination from irrigation water.     

Virus Genome Quantification Does not Predict Norovirus Infectivity After Application of Food Inactivation Processing Technologies

When determining the effect of food processing on the infectivity of any contaminating virus, it is necessary to distinguish unambiguously between infectious and non-infectious viruses present. However, this can be difficult in the particular case of noroviruses (NoVs) because no reliable cell culture model is available. The aim of this study was to assess the use of molecular methods—RT real-time PCR (RT-qPCR) and enzymatic treatment (ET) coupled to RT-qPCR—to quantify the infectivity of NoV after application of various inactivating food-processing technologies. RT-qPCR and ET-RT-qPCR gave significantly different (P < 0.01) results concerning the reduction in viral genome counts by all inactivation procedures and conditions used, except for HHP treatment at 600 MPa for 5 min. These findings indicate that the ET prior to RT-qPCR has an effect on the estimation of the reduction of virus genome counts, and may eliminate genomes of affected virus particles. However, no correlation was found between the results obtained by ET-RT-qPCR and those obtained by cell culture. Therefore, the effect is presumably only partial, and not adequate to allow accurate estimation of virus inactivation. Consequently, our results indicate that the quantification of virus genomes by PCR, regardless of prior ET, is not adequate for establishing virus inactivation and/or infectivity. In addition, our results also illustrate that the general effect of virus inactivation is not directly correlated to effects on the integrity of virus genome and protein capsid. Presumably, inactivation by food processing is the consequence of effects on proteins involved in adhesion and invasion stages.     

Application of Pesticide Sprays to Fresh Produce: A Risk Assessment for Hepatitis A and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Salmonella</Emphasis>

The purpose of this study was to quantify the transfer of viral and bacterial pathogens in water used to dilute pesticides sprayed onto the surfaces of cantaloupe, iceberg lettuce, and bell peppers. The average percent transfer of bacteria was estimated to range from 0.00021 to 9.4%, while average viral transfer ranged from 0.055 to 4.2%, depending on the type of produce. Based on these values the concentrations of hepatitis A virus (HAV) and Salmonella in water necessary to achieve a 1:10,000 annual risk of infection were calculated. Under worst case scenario assumptions, in which a pesticide is applied on the same day that the produce is harvested and when maximum transfer values are used, concentrations of 1.5 × 10⁻³ CFU Salmonella or 2.7 × 10⁻⁷ MPN HAV per 100 ml of the water used for application would result in 1:10,000 annual infection risk to anyone who consumes the fresh produce. If harvesting does not occur until at least 14 days after the application, to produce the same risk of infection, the numbers of Salmonella in 100 ml of water used to dilute the pesticides will be greater by up to five orders of magnitude, while the HAV numbers will have increased by up to two orders of magnitude. Based on the reported concentrations of enteric viruses in surface and ground waters in the United States, a 1:10,000 annual risk of infection could easily be exceeded with some groundwater sources used in the United States. To reduce the risks associated with the consumption of fresh produce, water used to prepare pesticides in spray applications should be evaluated for its microbiological quality.     

Solar Disinfection of Water for Inactivation of Enteric Viruses and its Enhancement by Riboflavin

Solar disinfection (SODIS) has been described as a cheap and effective method of treating contaminated water to inactivate pathogenic microorganisms. In this study, SODIS was assessed for its efficacy in inactivating three enteric viruses (coxsackievirus B3, coxsackievirus B5 and poliovirus), either on its own or in the presence of riboflavin as a disinfection enhancer. On its own, SODIS produced a reduction of virus infectivity of 4–6 log₁₀ in 6 h. In the presence of riboflavin, inactivation was more rapid in all viruses studied, and with coxsackievirus B5 and poliovirus an extra 1–2 log₁₀ increase in reduction of infectivity was observed after 6 h exposure. This study provides a practical example of low technology methods which could be utilised to provide safe drinking water in various circumstances.