A Maximum Entropy Approach to Estimating Emissions

ABSTRACT

A maximum information entropy method of calculating probabilistic estimates of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by the wood furniture and fixture coating industry is presented. The maximum entropy approach is used to produce minimally biased probability distributions for number of firms, coating use, and coating emission factors from existing summary statistics. These distributions are combined to estimate VOC emissions. The maximum entropy emissions estimate provides information to support probabilistic modeling of regional air quality, probabilistic assessment of emission reduction strategies, and risk assessments. Accurate estimation of emission distributions produces more informed regulatory decisionmaking, risk comparisons, and regulatory and scientific priority setting.     

Successful application of monitored natural attenuation in a surficial aquifer

Groundwater investigations conducted since 1988 at a Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC) Voluntary Oversight and Assistance Program (VOAP) site located in Millington, Tennessee, have defined the lateral and vertical extent of site chemicals of concern (COCs) consisting of tetrachloroethene (PCE), trichloroethene (TCE), and associated degradation products. Results of a groundwater remedial investigation determined that aquifer conditions were favorable for anaerobic degradation of COCs through reductive dechlorination. A subsequent groundwater feasibility study determined that monitored natural attenuation (MNA) coupled with long‐term groundwater monitoring was the most effective and suitable remedial option for the site. A Record of Decision was issued by the TDEC VOAP approving MNA and long‐term groundwater monitoring as the remedial option for the site, a first for such a site in Tennessee involving chlorinated organics. A groundwater fate and transport model (the 1998 model) developed during the RI was used as the basis for the MNA remedy. Analytical data from 1998 to 2008 indicate COCs in former high‐concentration areas continue to degrade at rates consistent with or ahead of the 1998 model predictions. Evidence of reductive dechlorination is also supported by the continued presence of breakdown products—specifically, vinyl chloride and ethene (terminal endpoint of PCE breakdown through reductive dechlorination). The continued detection of breakdown products along the flow‐path wells also confirms the effectiveness of the MNA remedy at the site. Current analytical data indicate that COC plumes beneath the site are not migrating and are actually retracting. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Mercury cycling in surface water, pore water and sediments of Mugu Lagoon, CA, USA

Mugu Lagoon is an estuary in southern California, listed as impaired for mercury. In 2005, we examined mercury cycling at ten sites within at most four habitats. In surface water (unfiltered and filtered) and pore water, the concentration of total mercury was correlated with methylmercury levels (R2=0.29, 0.26, 0.27, respectively, p<0.05), in contrast to sediments, where organic matter and reduced iron levels were most correlated with methylmercury content (R2=0.37, 0.26, respectively, p<0.05). Interestingly, levels for percent methylmercury of total mercury in sediments were higher than typical values for estuarine sediments (average 5.4%, range 0.024-38%, n=59), while pore water methylmercury Kd values were also high (average 3.1, range 2.0-4.2l kg(-1), n=39), and the estimated methylmercury flux from sediments was low (average 1.7, range 0.14-5.3ng m(-2) day(-1), n=19). Mercury levels in predatory fish tissue at Mugu are >0.3ppm, suggesting biogeochemical controls on methylmercury mobility do not completely mitigate methylmercury uptake through the food web.     

Transport of atmospheric fine particulate matter: part 1--findings from recent field programs on the extent of regional transport within North America

Air quality field data, collected as part of the fine particulate matter Supersites program and other field measurements programs, have been used to assess the role of aerosol transport, over length scales of approximately 100-1000 km, on fine particulate matter concentrations. Assessment of data from New York, NY; Baltimore, MD; Pittsburgh, PA; Atlanta, GA; Houston, TX; St. Louis, MO; and Fresno, CA, indicates that in virtually all of the regions, transport of aerosol over distances of 100-1000 km has a significant impact on urban particulate matter concentrations and a dominant role in determining rural particulate matter concentrations, though the nature of the regional contributions differs from region to region. This assessment is generally consistent with previous conceptual models of fine particulate matter formation and accumulation in these regions. The nature of the transported aerosol is largely sulfate in Eastern and Midwestern cities and nitrate in the Central Valley of California. In addition to physical transport of aerosol over distances of 100-1000 km, regional transport of aerosol precursors may lead to conditions conducive to large-scale nucleation events. Regional nucleation events have been reported in the East, Midwest, and in California. The events occurred in the morning soon after surface layers coupled with layers aloft, and the events generate ultrafine particles. In some cases, these nucleation events have been correlated with availability of sulfur dioxide and, therefore, may be sulfate formation events.     

Decline of the Shasta Crayfish (Pacifastacus fortis Faxon) of Northeastern California

Native freshwater faunas in North America are declining, principally due to the combined effects of habitat degradation and introduced species. Relatively little attention has been directed to the decline of freshwater invertebrates, which may be even more threatened than fishes. This paper chronicles recent changes in the distribution and abundance of the Shasta crayfish ( Pacifastacus fortis Faxon), a state and federally endangered species endemic to the midreaches of the Pit River system in northeastern California. We made snorkeling and SCUBA surveys for crayfish in 1990 and 1991 and examined various records for historic distributions. Shasta crayfish have been extirpated from much of their historic range by water impoundment and diversion, and they are further threatened by two introduced crayfish species ( Pacifastacus leniusculus Dana and Orconectes virilis Hagen). By 1990 Shasta crayfish were restricted to seven isolated populations, mostly in the headwaters of spring-fed tributaries to the Pit river. P. leniusculus had become established throughout much of the study area in about 12 years. In one site P. leniusculus probably contributed to the precipitous decline of Shasta crayfish, from 2000–3000 in 1980 to about 370 (± 135) in 1991. O. virilis , which occurred in only the most disturbed parts of the system, showed little range expansion in 30 years and had been replaced in a large stretch of the Pit River by P. leniusculus. P. leniusculus occupied sites with a broad range of habitat variables (temperature, pH, turbidity, substrate size) partly or wholly overlapping measures of sites with the other two species. The decline of the Shasta crayfish, like the extinction of its closest relative P. nigrescens in the San Francisco Bay area earlier this century, reflects the decline of its habitat and probably pressure from the aggressive exotic P. leniusculus .     

Exceptionally high levels of multiple mating in an army ant

Most species of social insects have singly mated queens, although there are notable exceptions. Competing hypotheses have been proposed to explain the evolution of high levels of multiple mating, but this issue is far from resolved. Here we use microsatellites to investigate mating frequency in the army ant Eciton burchellii and show that queens mate with an exceptionally large number of males, eclipsing all but one other social insect species for which data are available. In addition we present evidence that suggests that mating is serial, continuing throughout the lifetime of the queen. This is the first demonstration of serial mating among social hymenoptera. We propose that high paternity within colonies is most likely to have evolved to increase genetic diversity and to counter high pathogen and parasite loads.     

Can chemical oxidation improve the permeability of infiltration basins?

The Rapid Infiltration and Extraction (RIX) facility, a soil aquifer treatment system, began taking secondary effluent from the City of San Bernardino, California, in 1996. The gradual decrease in the hydraulic conductivity of the infiltration basins at RIX has been attributed to the accumulation of organic matter in the surface sand. Periodic tillage of the surface sand to restore the permeability has mixed this organic matter to a depth of nearly 50 cm. We hypothesized that in situ chemical oxidation of the surface sand might improve the infiltration rate and increase the time between filling and drying cycles. The effect of organic matter oxidation on sand permeability was tested in laboratory sand columns treated with sodium hypochlorite, calcium hypochorite, and ozone gas. All oxidants significantly decreased the hydraulic conductivity of the surface sand. The loss in permeability was attributed to an increase in dispersed clay plus silt-sized particles that were released as a result of oxidation. This study suggests that ex situ sand-washing operations, currently being used to clean the sand, could be improved by the addition of oxidants to the wash water.     

Sex ratio manipulation and decreased growth of male offspring of undernourished golden hamsters (Mesocricetus auratus)

Summary The theory that female mammals in poor condition may increase individual fitness by skewing the sex ratio of their offspring toward daughters and by investing more resources in daughters than in sons was tested in hamsters. Newly mated experimental females were food-restricted during pregnancy and lactation (RR) or during lactation only (AR). Controls received food ad libitum. Maternal body weights were assessed daily from mating to 25 days postpartum. Litter survival (% litters with at least one pup surviving on any day), litter size, offspring sex ratios (=% males), and pup weights were monitored daily from birth (Day 1) to Day 25. All control and AR dams gave birth 16 days after mating. Gestation was extended by 1–3 days for 35.4% of RR dams. RR dams weighed significantly less at parturition than controls and AR females. During lactation, AR females showed the greatest weight loss and control females the least. AR weight loss exceeded that of RR females, possibly because the former maintained larger litters. Survival was highest for controls, intermediate for AR, and lowest for RR litters. Mean sex ratio at birth was significantly less for RR (40.7%) than for control (49.6%) and AR (48.8%) litters. RR sex ratio did not change significantly postnatally. Sex ratios of control and AR litters never differed statistically from 50%. Control male pups were significantly heavier than their sisters throughout the experiment. No significant gender differences were observed for AR pup weights after Day 2 postpartum. RR female offspring weighed more than their brothers throughout the experiment, and this difference was statistically significant immediately prior to the time that pups began to feed independently (Days 14–17). RR female pup weights were similar to, and sometimes significantly greater than, weights of control daughters during the period of postnatal maternal investment. Control males were always heavier than males from the other treatments. Patterns of weight gain by AR and RR males varied with age. We conclude that underfed female hamsters are able to adjust the sex ratio of offspring prenatally and parental investment postnatally to favor daughters.     

A Bayesian hierarchical model for monitoring harbor seal changes in Prince William Sound, Alaska

Bayesian hierarchical models were used to assess trends of harbor seals, Phoca vitulina richardsi, in Prince William Sound, Alaska, following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Data consisted of 4–10 replicate observations per year at 25 sites over 10 years. We had multiple objectives, including estimating the effects of covariates on seal counts, and estimating trend and abundance, both per site and overall. We considered a Bayesian hierarchical model to meet our objectives. The model consists of a Poisson regression model for each site. For each observation the logarithm of the mean of the Poisson distribution was a linear model with the following factors: (1) intercept for each site and year, (2) time of year, (3) time of day, (4) time relative to low tide, and (5) tide height. The intercept for each site was then given a linear trend model for year. As part of the hierarchical model, parameters for each site were given a prior distribution to summarize overall effects. Results showed that at most sites, (1) trend is down; counts decreased yearly, (2) counts decrease throughout August, (3) counts decrease throughout the day, (4) counts are at a maximum very near to low tide, and (5) counts decrease as the height of the low tide increases; however, there was considerable variation among sites. To get overall trend we used a weighted average of the trend at each site, where the weights depended on the overall abundance of a site. Results indicate a 3.3% decrease per year over the time period.