A performance evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability for the summer of 2007

This paper provides a performance evaluation of the real-time, CONUS-scale National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) that supported, in part, its transition into operational status. This evaluation focuses primarily on discrete forecasts for the maximum 8-h O₃ concentrations covering the 4-month period, June through September, 2007, using measurements obtained from EPA's AIRNow network. Results indicate that the 2007 NAQFC performed as well or better than previous configurations, despite the expansion of the forecast domain into the western half of the nation that is dominated by complex terrain. The mean, domain-wide, season-long correlation was 0.70. When examined over time, the domain-wide correlations exhibit a fairly consistent nature, with values exceeding 0.60 (0.70) over 90% (55%) of the days. The NAQFC systematically over-predicted the 8-h O₃ concentrations, continuing a trend established by earlier NAQFC configurations, though to a lesser degree. The summer-long mean forecast value of 53.2 ppb was 4.2 ppb higher than the observed value, resulting in a domain-wide Normalized Mean Bias (NMB) of 8.7%. Most of the over-prediction is associated with observed concentrations less than 50 ppb. In fact the model tends to under-predict when concentrations exceed 70 ppb. As with the bias, the error associated with the latest configuration was also lower. The summer-long Root Mean Square Error of 13.0 ppb (Normalized Mean Error (NME) = 20.4%) represented marked improvements over earlier forecasts. Examination of the spatial distribution of both the NMB and NME reveals that the NAQFC was generally within 25% for the NME and 25% for the NMB over a majority of the domain. Several areas of poorer performance, where the NMB and NME often exceed 25% and in some cases 50%, were noted. These areas include southern California, where the NAQFC tended to under-predict concentrations (especially on weekends) and the southeast Atlantic and Gulf coasts regions, where the model over-predicted. Subsequent analysis revealed that the incorrect temporal allocation of precursor emissions was likely the source of the under-prediction in southern California, while inaccurate simulation of PBL heights likely contributed to the over-prediction in the coastal regions.     

Productivity equation for reclaiming surface mines

This article addresses the development of an agricultural productivity equation for predicting new soil (neo-sol) plant growth potential in Clay County, Minnesota, USA. Soil factors examined in the study include percent organic matter, percent slope, percent rock fragments, hydraulic conductivity, electrical conductivity, pH, topographic position, available water-holding capacity, bulk density, and percent clay. Squared terms and two-factor interaction terms were also examined as possible regressors. A best equation was selected that had a multiple coefficient of determination of 0.7399 and has five significant regressors and intercept withP.0001. The regressors are hydraulic conductivity, percent slope squared, bulk density times percent rock fragments, electrical conductivity times percent rock fragments, and electrical conductivity times percent organic matter. The regressors predict soil suitability for a general crop model. The crops included in the model are wheat, oats, barley, soybeans, sugar beets, sunflowers, and grasses/legumes.     

Liquid household hazardous wastes in the United States: Identification,disposal, and management plan

Present methods of disposal of today's hazardous household chemicals in the United States are frequently not acceptable because of pathways to groundwater, surface water, and the atmosphere. This report identifies potentially hazardous liquid waste in the household, notes current disposal practices, and recommends an improved management plan that utilizes consumer education, manufacturer cooperation, and governmental intervention. Laws requiring uniform disposal labeling on packaging are critical. Local, county, and state governments must be encouraged to coordinate the necessary infrastructure. Managing hazardous household wastes now will mitigate potential disposal problems.     

Sweet for the sour: Incentives in environmental mediation

The siting of facilities with undesirable environmental characteristics often leads to public conflict. Efforts to resolve the conflict and make siting decisions frequently exacerbate the problem. Environmental mediation, the process of negotiating an agreeable settlement, is an accepted approach to resolving conflict. This paper explores the use of incentive systems as a means of achieving equity in environmental mediation. Obnoxious and noxious characteristics of facilities are discussed as the basis of conflicts. Four types of incentives—mitigation, compensation, reward, and participation—are discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of the utility and application of incentives for solving environmental conflicts.     

EFFECTS OF INITIAL ABSTRACTION AND URBANIZATION ON ESTIMATED RUNOFF USING CN TECHNOLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Few studies have been conducted to explore the effects of initial abstraction on estimated direct runoff despite the widespread use of the curve number (CN) method in many hydrologic models to estimate direct runoff. In this study, use of a 5 percent ratio of initial abstraction (I_a) to storage (S) to estimate daily direct runoff with modified CN values for a 5 percent I_a/S value was investigated using the Long‐Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L‐THIA) geographic information system (GIS). In addition, the effects on estimated runoff of altering the hydrologic soil group due to urbanization were investigated. The L‐THIA model was applied to the Indiana Little Eagle Creek watershed with 5 percent and 20 percent I_a/S values, considering hydrologic soil group alteration due to urbanization. The results indicate that uses of a 5 percent l_a/S and modified CN values and Hydrologic Soil Group D for urbanized areas in model runs can improve long term direct runoff prediction.     

Rapid interphase analysis for prenatal diagnosis of translocation carriers using subtelomeric probes

Interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) has become an accepted laboratory technique for the rapid and preliminary prenatal assessment of chromosome aneuploidy. The introduction of subtelomeric FISH probes now allows for the molecular–cytogenetic analysis of terminal chromosome rearrangements. In a prospective study, we examined the prenatal use of subtelomeric probes on interphase cells to rapidly detect the carrier status of a fetus when a parent carried a known reciprocal or Robertsonian chromosome translocation. Three of the cases were identified as being abnormal. All cases were confirmed by routine cytogenetic analysis. These findings clearly demonstrated the utility of this technique and these probes to rapidly and correctly identify balanced and unbalanced chromosome anomalies of a fetus that could result from parental translocations. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Electrostatic precipitator emission and opacity performance control through rapper strategy

The opacity and emission performance of two “identical” cold-side precipitators at a power plant utilizing a Western coal source was investigated through an extensive test program. The test program included establishment of outlet emission versus opacity correlations for the two “identical” units, correlation of rapper strategy (frequency and amplitude) with opacity, and correlation of power-off rapping strategy with opacity. Analysis of the test program data demonstrates that the opacity-emission correlations from the two “identical” units can be significantly different. The potential reasons for the differences between the two units are identified and examined in light of the test program data. Strong correlation of opacity with rapping strategy was developed from the test program. Results demonstrate that an automatic power-off rapping technique can significantly enhance precipitator performance on ash from Western coal.     

Effect of cobalt sorption on metal fractionation in anaerobic granular sludge

A sequential extraction procedure was applied to two anaerobic methanogenic sludges (Eerbeek and Nedalco) to examine the speciation of micro- and macronutrients in the sludges after cobalt sorption by exposing the sludge to a 1 mM Co solution for 4 d at pH 7 and 30 degrees C. The effect of different physicochemical conditions on cobalt sorption was studied as well: effect of pH (6-8), effect of competition by a second trace element (Ni or Fe), modification of the granular matrix by glutaraldehyde or heat treatment, and EDTA (ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid) addition. Sorbed Co was found to distribute between the carbonates, organic matter + sulfides, and residual fractions. Cobalt adsorption resulted in an antagonistic interaction with other metals present in the granular matrix, evidenced by the solubilization of other trace elements (e.g., Ni, Cu, and Zn) as well as macronutrients (especially Ca and Fe). Modification of the sludge matrix by glutaraldehyde or heat treatment, or exposure to EDTA, led to serious modifications of the Co sorption capacity and strong interactions with multivalent cations (i.e., Ca(2+) and Fe(2+)).     

Scope insensitivity in contingent valuation of complex environmental amenities

It has been argued that respondents in contingent valuation (CV) surveys, asked to value complex environmental amenities, will state willingness to pay (WTP) independently of the scope of the project. Such insensitivity to scope would be at odds with rational choice, and could therefore imply that CV is not a theoretically valid method for biodiversity valuation. The scope test in the present CV study was applied to endangered species preservation. Respondents were split in four sub-samples facing different scopes of endangered species preservation. The design allowed for both external and internal scope tests. Furthermore, the tests were split according to elicitation format. Of four external tests of insensitivity to scope, one was rejected, two gave mixed results, depending on either the type of test or elicitation format, and for the last one the null hypothesis could not be rejected. Of five internal tests, insensitivity to scope was rejected in three cases, one test gave mixed results, and one could not be rejected. Survey design features of the CV study, especially an unfamiliar sub-group of endangered species, could explain the apparent insensitivity to scope observed.     

Reindeer in the Swedish mountains: an assessment of grazing impacts

During the last decade, several well-publicized grazing-related incidents of vegetation degradation have helped to form an official opinion of overutilization of some mountain areas and a concern that Swedish reindeer husbandry may not be ecologically sustainable. We examine these examples in a temporal and management perspective to assess the scale of impact on summer grazing grounds in the Swedish mountains. Long-term data on population dynamics of reindeer show no trend with fluctuations around 225 000 animals for the last century. Data on grazing effects from L?ngfj?llet (Dalarna) and Mitt?kl?ppen (H?rjedalen) are discussed in detail. We compare these data to the situation in Finnmark, Norway, and in northern Finland where reindeer husbandry in recent decades does not seem to have been ecologically sustainable. We conclude that large-scale overexploitation by reindeer in the Swedish mountains is not evident. However, strong grazing and trampling effects may be found around enclosures and fences.