Obtaining Environmental Favourability Functions from Logistic Regression

Logistic regression is a statistical tool widely used for predicting species’ potential distributions starting from presence/absence data and a set of independent variables. However, logistic regression equations compute probability values based not only on the values of the predictor variables but also on the relative proportion of presences and absences in the dataset, which does not adequately describe the environmental favourability for or against species presence. A few strategies have been used to circumvent this, but they usually imply an alteration of the original data or the discarding of potentially valuable information. We propose a way to obtain from logistic regression an environmental favourability function whose results are not affected by an uneven proportion of presences and absences. We tested the method on the distribution of virtual species in an imaginary territory. The favourability models yielded similar values regardless of the variation in the presence/absence ratio. We also illustrate with the example of the Pyrenean desman’s (Galemys pyrenaicus) distribution in Spain. The favourability model yielded more realistic potential distribution maps than the logistic regression model. Favourability values can be regarded as the degree of membership of the fuzzy set of sites whose environmental conditions are favourable to the species, which enables applying the rules of fuzzy logic to distribution modelling. They also allow for direct comparisons between models for species with different presence/absence ratios in the study area. This makes them more useful to estimate the conservation value of areas, to design ecological corridors, or to select appropriate areas for species reintroductions. Received: June 2005 / Revised: July 2005     

Effects of colony size and stage of development on defense response by the swarm-founding wasp<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Polybia occidentalis</Emphasis>

In social insects the level of defensive effort generally increases with colony size, but the effects of the size of the defending adult population and the size of the brood population being defended have not been separated. We used pre-emergence-stage colonies of the swarm-founding wasp, Polybia occidentalis, to distinguish the effects of these two parameters on the intensity of colony defense. We elicited defensive behavior by using both mechanical (taps) and chemical (alarm-pheromone-containing venom) stimuli, and scored the responses as the number of attacks on a standard target. The intensity of defense increased linearly throughout the colony's first 25 days of development, despite the decrease in absolute numbers of adults during the same period. That is, the per capita attack rate increased strongly during this period, leading us to conclude that the intensity of defense is a function of the colony's investment in brood and not of the number of defending adults. We provide evidence that the increase is attributable neither to sensitization due to frequent disturbance, nor to the aging of the adult wasps. We further show that defensive effort on a per capita basis decreased with increasing size across colonies, whether colony size was measured as number of adults or as investment in brood. This pattern suggests that the cost-benefit relationship of defending the colony changes with colony size.Communicated by R.F.A. Moritz     

Biochemical examination of fetal skin biopsy specimens obtained by fetoscopy: Use of the method for analysis of keratins and filaggrin

This paper describes a method for biochemical analysis of proteins from fetal skin biopsy samples. The method has wide potential application for diagnosis of disorders with a known protein abnormality detectable by protein staining or a specific antibody. Analysis requires a single 1 mm biopsy, is rapid (2 days) and extremely sensitive. In the present study, fetal skin biopsies from normal fetuses and a fetus at risk for lamellar ichthyosis were obtained. The epidermis or hairs with attached follicular cells were dissected from the remaining skin. Proteins were extracted and separated by SDS-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Proteins from duplicate gels were transferred to nitrocellulose and immunostained for the acidic and basic keratins and for the keratin filament associated protein, filaggrin, using monoclonal antibodies. All samples contained keratins typical of fetal epidermis at 20 weeks gestation. Presence of filaggrin is variable at this age and depends on the presence of keratinized cells of hair canals. No keratin abnormalities in the fetus at risk for lamellar ichthyosis were detected, however, in one presumably normal biopsy, an abnormally low proportion of the 67 kd keratin and the presence of follicular keratins were evident. These results demonstrate that biochemical analysis of fetal biopsies is possible, thus increasing the diagnostic potential of the fetal biopsy procedure for disorders in which a known protein or antigen is altered in utero.     

Incidental detection of premature centromere separation in amniocytes associated with a mild form of Roberts syndrome

Premature centromere separation (PCS) was detected in amniocytes after an amniocentesis was done because of markedly elevated maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein values in a healthy primiparous young woman. PCS has been associated with the Roberts-SC phocomelia syndrome (RS). By 23 weeks' gestation, ultrasonic evaluations did not reveal abnormal fetal development. The pregnancy continued and a male infant was born with mild manifestations of RS. PCS was confirmed in cord blood lymphocytes. This case illustrates that PCS, when detected in amniotic fluid cell cultures, requires a thorough evaluation.     

Parasite faunas,testosterone and secondary sexual traits in male red-winged blackbirds

Summary We examined associations among parasite infections, secondary sexual traits and testosterone in male red-winged blackbirds sampled at the start of the breeding season. Parasites quantified included ectoparasitic lice and mites and endoparasitic blood protozoans, nematodes, trematodes and cestodes. Secondary sexual traits that we quantified included body size, epaulet size and color, song repertoire size and song switching rate, and behavioral responses to male and female models. Overall we found few significant associations between parasites and secondary sexual traits, between secondary sexual traits and testosterone, or between parasites and testosterone. In addition, most parasite taxa appeared to infect birds independently, although the low prevalence (<50%) of many of the parasites meant that our sample sizes were too small to detect weak associations. Our most promising results were obtained for ectoparasitic mites, which tended to occur on birds uninfected with other parasites, on birds with longer epaulets, and on birds with higher levels of testosterone. Epaulet length and testosterone are both probable correlates of dominance in this species. Further research will be required to determine whether there is a causal link between the immunosuppressive effects of testosterone and the mite infections, and between testosterone, epaulet length and male mating success. Correspondence to: P. Weatherhead     

Simulated green turtle grazing affects nutrient composition of the seagrass <Emphasis Type="Italic">Thalassia testudinum</Emphasis>

Before populations of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) were severely reduced by human overexploitation, the seagrass Thalassia testudinum was intensively grazed by green turtles in the Caribbean. To explore how nutrient composition of T. testudinum pastures responds to intense grazing pressure, we simulated green turtle grazing in 15 plots (each 3 m × 3 m) for 16 months in the central Bahamas. Comparisons of clipped plots with 15 adjacent control (unclipped) plots revealed that simulated grazing resulted in significantly higher energy, nitrogen, phosphorus, lignin, cutin, and condensed tannin content in blades in clipped plots, but sediment organic content was not affected. By continually re-cropping blades in grazing plots, turtles ingest young, actively growing blade tissue with higher energy, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations. Our 16-month clipping trial did not generate the expected decline in nutrient content in T. testudinum blades under intensive grazing. However, significant decreases in nitrogen and organic matter reserves in rhizomes, with declines apparent after 16 and 11 months, respectively, indicate that nutrient content of blades and/or blade productivity may decline under continued clipping.     

Habitat influences on reproductive allocation and growth of the mummichog (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Fundulus heteroclitus</Emphasis>) in a coastal salt marsh

To determine whether life history differences can occur in salt marsh fishes that occupy different habitats within the same marsh, we compared reproductive allocation in female mummichog (Fundulus heteroclitus) inhabiting creeks and ponds of a coastal salt marsh in southern New Jersey, USA during the spring and summer of 2001 and 2002. Females were collected in phase with the lunar spawning cycle from four sites of each habitat type, and assessed for gonad-to-body-mass ratio and growth increment. Annual reproductive allocation, expressed as a percent of somatic mass, was estimated for each site and year from the gonadosomatic indices of individuals collected during each spawning period. Mummichogs from creeks showed little change in annual reproductive allocation from 2001 to 2002, whereas those inhabiting ponds showed a significant increase between these years. Seasonal reproductive patterns indicated that pond females cease spawning at least one lunar cycle earlier than creek fish. While ponds experienced considerably higher maximum summer temperatures than creeks as well as near-anoxic pre-dawn conditions, neither of these variables explained a significant amount of variation in annual reproductive allocation. In contrast, annual reproductive allocation of mummichogs in a pond correlated with its flood frequency in both years of study. Our results suggest that while the length of the spawning season differs in mummichogs inhabiting marsh creeks and ponds, annual reproductive allocation depends more upon the hydrodynamic conditions of the particular waterbody than its habitat type per se.     

Social spider defense against kleptoparasitism

Summary Because of the large amount of webbing they provide, social spider colonies often host other satellite spider species referred to as kleptoparasites or food stealers. Such kleptoparasites may take advantage of increased prey capture rates associated with large spider aggregations. This study investigated the relationship between a cooperatively social spider species, Anelosimus eximius (Araneae: Theridiidae), which lives in the undergrowth of tropical rainforests in Peru, and its kleptoparasite, Argyrodes ululans (Araneae: Theridiidae), which specializes in foraging in An. eximius webs. Although large aggregates of spiders may be more attractive to kleptoparasites, the benefits of group defense may offset this cost. Natural colonies were observed, and enclosed field colonies containing fixed numbers of host spiders were manipulated in order to determine whether kleptoparasite success is affected by the number of social spiders that are available for defense. Prey was less likely to be stolen by Ar. ululans when a greater number of host An. eximius spiders were involved in prey capture. When hosts detected a kleptoparasite earlier and chased it more often, prey was more likely to be successfully defended. Ar. ululans was more successful in stealing small prey items in all colonies and gave up more readily on very large prey (> 11 mm). I conclude that communal living and group defense in An. eximius confer protection from the kleptoparasite Ar. ululans.     

Genetic Analyses to Establish Captive Breeding Priorities for Endangered Snake River Sockeye Salmon

The plight of the Snake River sockeye salmon presents a challenging genetic puzzle for conservation biologists. Although the Snake River sockeye has been declared endangered, assessment of captive breeding strategies are complicated because a healthy non-migratory strain of O. nerka (kokanee) resides in Redfish Lake, Idaho—the same lake the anadromous fish return to for spawning. The migration of 1-year-old fish (outmigrants) from the lake each year and the observation of non-migratory fish spawning in areas previously used by the sockeye further complicate the issue. We estimated the relatedness of these strains by direct examination of their genetic similarity. Mixed DNA fingerprint analyses suggested that the outmigrants were more closely related to the anadromous sockeye than to the kokanee. Closer analysis using a probe, One-HO.8, to examine allele frequencies at a single locus revealed polymorphism in a number of O. nerka populations. Within the Redfish Lake populations this probe detected an allele present at 0.21 frequency in the kokanee (n = 43), 0.01 (n = 324) in the outmigrants, and absent among 13 anadromous fish. These results support a close genetic relationship of the outmigrants to the anadromous sockeye and the probable utility of the outmigrants in a captive breeding program to restore the anadromous strain.