Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

The efficacy of protoporphyrin as a predictive biomarker for lead exposure in canvasback ducks: Effect of sample storage time

We used 363 blood samples collected from wild canvasback dueks (Aythya valisineria) at Catahoula Lake, Louisiana, U.S.A. to evaluate the effect of sample storage time on the efficacy of erythrocytic protoporphyrin as an indicator of lead exposure. The protoporphyrin concentration of each sample was determined by hematofluorometry within 5 min of blood collection and after refrigeration at 4 °C for 24 and 48 h. All samples were analyzed for lead by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Based on a blood lead concentration of 0.2 ppm wet weight as positive evidence for lead exposure, the protoporphyrin technique resulted in overall error rates of 29%, 20%, and 19% and false negative error rates of 47%, 29% and 25% when hematofluorometric determinations were made on blood at 5 min, 24 h, and 48 h, respectively. False positive error rates were less than 10% for all three measurement times. The accuracy of the 24-h erythrocytic protoporphyrin classification of blood samples as positive or negative for lead exposure was significantly greater than the 5-min classification, but no improvement in accuracy was gained when samples were tested at 48 h. The false negative errors were probably due, at least in part, to the lag time between lead exposure and the increase of blood protoporphyrin concentrations. False negatives resulted in an underestimation of the true number of canvasbacks exposed to lead, indicating that hematofluorometry provides a conservative estimate of lead exposure.The U.S. Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledgedDeceased     

Cadmium and zinc source assessment in the Sepetiba Bay and basin region

Industrial and weathering inputs of Cd and Zn to the Sepetiba Bay and basin were assessed, based on production parameters obtained from local environment and industry authorities, and literature data. The results are compared with similar evaluations from other coastal regions and field data obtained in measuring Zn and Cd transport by rivers, direct run-off and atmospheric deposition in the region. Cadmium and zinc inputs to the bay increased by three orders of magnitude relative to pre-industrial fluxes and presently reach up to 1.6 and 180 tonnes per year for Cd and Zn, respectively, which represents a large input-to-area ratio, and explains the high concentration of these metals previously reported in the estuarine biota and sediments of Sepetiba Bay. Industrial activities, mainly metallurgical and chemical, comprise 94% and 84% of the total Cd and Zn inputs to the Bay. This figure identifies the point sources as being responsible for the environmental contamination and for regional poisoning risks.     

Attributes of reliable long-term landscape-scale studies: Malpractice insurance for landscape ecologists

Monitoring long-term change in forested landscapes is an intimidating challenge with considerable practical, methodological, and theoretical limitations. Current field approaches used to assess vegetation change at the plot-to-stand scales and nationwide forest monitoring programs may not be appropriate at landscape scales. We emphasize that few vegetation monitoring programs (and, thus, study design models) are designed to detect spatial and temporal trends at landscape scales. Based primarily on advice from many sources, and trial and error, we identify 14 attributes of a reliable long-term landscape monitoring program: malpractice insurance for landscape ecologists. The attributes are to: secure long-term funding and commitment; develop flexible goals; refine objectives; pay adequate attention to information management; take an experimental approach to sampling design; obtain peer-review and statistical review of research proposals and publications; avoid bias in selection of long-term plot locations; insure adequate spatial replication; insure adequate temporal replication; synthesize retrospective, experimental, and related studies; blend theoretical and empirical models with the means to validate both; obtain periodic research program evaluation; integrate and synthesize with larger and smaller scale research, inventory, and monitoring programs; and develop an extensive outreach program. Using these 14 attributes as a guide, we describe one approach to assess the potential effect of global change on the vegetation of the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies. This self-evaluation helps identify strengthes and weaknesses in our program, and may serve the same role for other landscape ecologists in other programs.     

Environmental and biological monitoring of methyl ethyl ketone (MEK)

This study was conducted to evaluate the usefulness of various biological parameters for monitoring of workers exposed to methyl ethyl ketone (MEK). Fifty male workers from a large magnetic videotape factory participated in this study. Personal air samples were collected using 3M organic vapor monitors and analysed for MEK by gas chromatography with flame ionisation detector (FID). 10 mL of urine; blood (1 mL) and exhaled air were also collected at the end of an 8-hour workshift. The headspace GC method was applied for measurement of urinary and blood MEK. MEK in expired air was analysed directly by using a GC/FID.The correlation coefficients (r) between environmental MEK and all other biological parameters measured show significant positive relationships. The r for environmental MEK and urine MEK was 0.84; for blood 0.73 and for breath 0.64. The correlation coefficients between blood and urine was 0.72; blood and breath was 0.88 and urine and breath 0.60. These findings suggest that measurements of unmetabolised MEK in blood, exhaled air and urine can be used for biological monitoring of MEK exposure. Nevertheless, laboratory methodological assessment is in favour of measuring urinary MEK as it is non-invasive and does not have to be analysed immediately after collection.     

A historical study of mineral elements in forest plants from South Norway

Herbarium plants were used as a material to study possible long-term changes in mineral elements of forest plants. Plants from South Norway collected in the period 1870 to 1930 were compared to plants collected in 1982. Relative to mineral contents in plants from 1870 to 1930, the 1982 material showed elevated levels of Zn, Cd, Rb, K, Mn and Ti and decreased levels of Sr, B, Ca and Mo in some of the plant species analysed. Most of these differences may be explained by changes in the environmental conditions, due to differences in chemical composition of precipitation, accelerated soil acidification and subsequent increasing mineral weathering. Consequently analysis of herbarium plants seems to provide valuable information about preindustrial levels of mineral elements and seems to detect changes in mineral elements brought about by recent anthropogenic activity.     

Drainage Effects on Stream Nitrate-N and Hydrology in South-Central Minnesota (USA)

Excessive nitrate-N in south-central Minnesota ditches and streams is related to land-use change, and may be contributing to the development of the zone of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Intensive land-use (agricultural management) has progressively increased as subsurface drainage has improved crop productivity over the past 25 years. We have examined water at varying scales for delta18O and, nitrate-N concentrations. Additionally, analysis of annual peak flows, and channel geomorphic features provided a measure of hydrologic change. Laboratory and field results indicate that agricultural drainage has influenced riverine source waters, concentrations of nitrate-N, channel dimensions and hydrology in the Blue Earth River (BER) Basin. At the mouth of the BER shallow ground water comprises the largest source water component. The highest nitrate-N concentrations in the BER and tributaries typically occurred in May and June and ranged from 7-34 mg L(-1). Peak flows for the 1.01-2-yr recurrence intervals increased by 20-to-206% over the past 25 years. Geomorphic data suggest that small channels (ditches) were entrenched by design, whereas, natural that are disconnected from an accessible riparian corridor. Frequent access to a functioning riparian zone is important for denitrification.     

Development of an ombrotrophic peat bog (low ash) reference material for the determination of elemental concentrations

Given the increasing interest in using peat bogs as archives of atmospheric metal deposition, the lack of validated sample preparation methods and suitable certified reference materials has hindered not only the quality assurance of the generated analytical data but also the interpretation and comparison of peat core metal profiles from different laboratories in the international community. Reference materials play an important role in the evaluation of the accuracy of analytical results and are essential parts of good laboratory practice. An ombrotrophic peat bog reference material has been developed by 14 laboratories from nine countries in an inter-laboratory comparison between February and October 2002. The material has been characterised for both acid-extractable and total concentrations of a range of elements, including Al, As, Ca, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, P, Pb, Ti, V and Zn. The steps involved in the production of the reference material (i.e. collection and preparation, homogeneity and stability studies, and certification) are described in detail.     

High frequency monitoring of the coastal marine environment using the MAREL buoy

The MAREL Iroise data buoy provides physico-chemical measurements acquired in surface marine water in continuous and autonomous mode. The water is pumped 1.5 m from below the surface through a sampling pipe and flows through the measuring cell located in the floating structure. Technological innovations implemented inside the measuring cell atop the buoy allow a continuous cleaning of the sensor, while injection of chloride ions into the circuit prevents biological fouling. Specific sensors for temperature, salinity, oxygen and fluorescence investigated in this paper have been evaluated to guarantee measurement precision over a 3 month period. A bi-directional link under Internet TCP-IP protocols is used for data, alarms and remote-control transmissions with the land-based data centre. Herein, we present a 29 month record for 4 parameters measured using a MAREL buoy moored in a coastal environment (Iroise Sea, Brest, France). The accuracy of the data provided by the buoy is assessed by comparison with measurements of sea water weekly sampled at the same site as part of SOMLIT (Service d'Observation du Milieu LIToral), the French network for monitoring of the coastal environment. Some particular events (impact of intensive fresh water discharges, dynamics of a fast phytoplankton bloom) are also presented, demonstrating the worth of monitoring a highly variable environment with a high frequency continuous reliable system.