Estimating California ecosystem carbon change using process model and land cover disturbance data: 1951-2000

Land use change, natural disturbance, and climate change directly alter ecosystem productivity and carbon stock level. The estimation of ecosystem carbon dynamics depends on the quality of land cover change data and the effectiveness of the ecosystem models that represent the vegetation growth processes and disturbance effects. We used the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and a set of 30- to 60-m resolution fire and land cover change data to examine the carbon changes of California's forests, shrublands, and grasslands. Simulation results indicate that during 1951-2000, the net primary productivity (NPP) increased by 7%, from 72.2 to 77.1 Tg C yr⁻¹ (1 teragram = 10¹² g), mainly due to CO₂ fertilization, since the climate hardly changed during this period. Similarly, heterotrophic respiration increased by 5%, from 69.4 to 73.1 Tg C yr⁻¹, mainly due to increased forest soil carbon and temperature. Net ecosystem production (NEP) was highly variable in the 50-year period but on average equalled 3.0 Tg C yr⁻¹ (total of 149 Tg C). As with NEP, the net biome production (NBP) was also highly variable but averaged −0.55 Tg C yr⁻¹ (total of -27.3 Tg C) because NBP in the 1980s was very low (-5.34 Tg C yr⁻¹). During the study period, a total of 126 Tg carbon were removed by logging and land use change, and 50 Tg carbon were directly removed by wildland fires. For carbon pools, the estimated total living upper canopy (tree) biomass decreased from 928 to 834 Tg C, and the understory (including shrub and grass) biomass increased from 59 to 63 Tg C. Soil carbon and dead biomass carbon increased from 1136 to 1197 Tg C.Our analyses suggest that both natural and human processes have significant influence on the carbon change in California. During 1951-2000, climate interannual variability was the key driving force for the large interannual changes of ecosystem carbon source and sink at the state level, while logging and fire were the dominant driving forces for carbon balances in several specific ecoregions. From a long-term perspective, CO₂ fertilization plays a key role in maintaining higher NPP. However, our study shows that the increase in C sequestration by CO₂ fertilization is largely offset by logging/land use change and wildland fires.     

Stochastic gravity models for modeling lake invasions

Freshwater aquatic systems in North America are being invaded by many different species, ranging from fish, mollusks, cladocerans to various bacteria and viruses. These invasions have serious ecological and economic impacts. Human activities such as recreational boating are an important pathway for dispersal. Gravity models are used to quantify the dispersal effect of human activity. Gravity models currently used in ecology are deterministic. This paper proposes the use of stochastic gravity models in ecology, which provides new capabilities both in model building and in potential model applications. These models allow us to use standard statistical inference tools such as maximum likelihood estimation and model selection based on information criteria. To facilitate prediction, we use only those covariates that are easily available from common data sources and can be forecasted in future. This is important for forecasting the spread of invasive species in geographical and temporal domain. The proposed model is portable, that is it can be used for estimating relative boater traffic and hence relative propagule pressure for the lakes not covered by current boater surveys. This makes our results broadly applicable to various invasion prediction and management models.     

The relationship between agricultural intensification and biological control: experimental tests across Europe

Agricultural intensification can affect biodiversity and related ecosystem services such as biological control, but large-scale experimental evidence is missing. We examined aphid pest populations in cereal fields under experimentally reduced densities of (1) ground-dwelling predators (-G), (2) vegetation-dwelling predators and parasitoids (-V), (3) a combination of (1) and (2) (-G-V), compared with open-fields (control), in contrasting landscapes with low vs. high levels of agricultural intensification (AI), and in five European regions. Aphid populations were 28%, 97%, and 199% higher in -G, -V, and -G-V treatments, respectively, compared to the open fields, indicating synergistic effects of both natural-enemy groups. Enhanced parasitoid: host and predator: prey ratios were related to reduced aphid population density and population growth. The relative importance of parasitoids and vegetation-dwelling predators greatly differed among European regions, and agricultural intensification affected biological control and aphid density only in some regions. This shows a changing role of species group identity in diverse enemy communities and a need to consider region-specific landscape management.     

Multinomial mixture model with heterogeneous classification probabilities

Royle and Link (Ecology 86(9):2505?C2512, 2005) proposed an analytical method that allowed estimation of multinomial distribution parameters and classification probabilities from categorical data measured with error. While useful, we demonstrate algebraically and by simulations that this method yields biased multinomial parameter estimates when the probabilities of correct category classifications vary among sampling units. We address this shortcoming by treating these probabilities as logit-normal random variables within a Bayesian framework. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to compute Bayes estimates from a simulated sample from the posterior distribution. Based on simulations, this elaborated Royle-Link model yields nearly unbiased estimates of multinomial and correct classification probability estimates when classification probabilities are allowed to vary according to the normal distribution on the logit scale or according to the Beta distribution. The method is illustrated using categorical submersed aquatic vegetation data.     

A synthesis of current knowledge on forests and carbon storage in the United States

Using forests to mitigate climate change has gained much interest in science and policy discussions. We examine the evidence for carbon benefits, environmental and monetary costs, risks and trade-offs for a variety of activities in three general strategies: (1) land use change to increase forest area (afforestation) and avoid deforestation; (2) carbon management in existing forests; and (3) the use of wood as biomass energy, in place of other building materials, or in wood products for carbon storage. We found that many strategies can increase forest sector carbon mitigation above the current 162-256 Tg C/yr, and that many strategies have co-benefits such as biodiversity, water, and economic opportunities. Each strategy also has trade-offs, risks, and uncertainties including possible leakage, permanence, disturbances, and climate change effects. Because approximately 60% of the carbon lost through deforestation and harvesting from 1700 to 1935 has not yet been recovered and because some strategies store carbon in forest products or use biomass energy, the biological potential for forest sector carbon mitigation is large. Several studies suggest that using these strategies could offset as much as 10-20% of current U.S. fossil fuel emissions. To obtain such large offsets in the United States would require a combination of afforesting up to one-third of cropland or pastureland, using the equivalent of about one-half of the gross annual forest growth for biomass energy, or implementing more intensive management to increase forest growth on one-third of forestland. Such large offsets would require substantial trade-offs, such as lower agricultural production and non-carbon ecosystem services from forests. The effectiveness of activities could be diluted by negative leakage effects and increasing disturbance regimes. Because forest carbon loss contributes to increasing climate risk and because climate change may impede regeneration following disturbance, avoiding deforestation and promoting regeneration after disturbance should receive high priority as policy considerations. Policies to encourage programs or projects that influence forest carbon sequestration and offset fossil fuel emissions should also consider major items such as leakage, the cyclical nature of forest growth and regrowth, and the extensive demand for and movement of forest products globally, and other greenhouse gas effects, such as methane and nitrous oxide emissions, and recognize other environmental benefits of forests, such as biodiversity, nutrient management, and watershed protection. Activities that contribute to helping forests adapt to the effects of climate change, and which also complement forest carbon storage strategies, would be prudent.     

Application of an environmental impact assessment methodology to a site discharging low levels of radioactivity to a freshwater environment in Norway

Significant shifts in opinion regarding environmental protection from ionising radiation have resulted in the development and availability of bespoke approaches for the assessment of impacts on wildlife from radioactive contaminants. The application of such assessment methodologies to actual situations, however, remains relatively limited. This paper describes the implementation of the ERICA Integrated Approach and associated tools within the context of routine discharges of radioactive materials to a freshwater environment. The article follows the implementation through its relevant stages and discusses strengths and weaknesses of the approach in relation to the case study. For current discharge levels, ¹³⁷Cs and ⁶⁰Co constitute the main dose contributors to the majority of reference organisms studied, although ²⁴¹Am and ³H are the main contributors for the phyto- and zooplankton categories. Patterns are observed depending on whether the reference organism is sediment-associated or not. At current discharge levels, none of the reference organisms exceeded or approached the selected screening level, and impacts on biota could be regarded as negligible.     

Mercury concentrations in oligohaline wetland vegetation and associated soil biogeochemistry

Concentrations of mercury were determined in above- and below-ground tissues of dominant plant species, as well as soils, in the wetlands of Lake Maurepas, Louisiana. Indicators of wetland soil biogeochemical status, such as soil redox potential, pore-water nutrient concentrations, and pore-water total sulfides, were also determined. Total mercury concentrations in plant tissues were within the typical range for vegetation not exposed to mercury contamination. Similarly, total mercury concentrations in soils were typical of uncontaminated wetlands within this geographic region. Soil methyl mercury levels in this study are slightly lower than those reported in other studies of nearby wetlands. This may reflect the less extensive geographic sampling in this study, or the low water levels in the Lake Maurepas system immediately prior to and during this study, which would have altered soil biogeochemical status. This is corroborated by measurements of soil redox potential and soil pore-water nitrogen and sulfur constituents conducted during this study that suggest minimal sulfate reduction was occurring in surficial soils. This study indicates that the wetlands surrounding Lake Maurepas are typical of many uncontaminated oligohaline wetlands in the southeastern U.S. in regard to mercury concentrations.     

Monitoring microbes in the Great Lakes

The concentrations of Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd, and Ni were measured in surface and core sediments to determine their distribution characteristics and toxicity in the sediments of Lake Chaohu. The results revealed that metal concentrations in the surface sediments had a tendency to increase from the estuarine mouth to the lake center. The distribution characteristics of the five target metals were similar along the sediment profiles at each site. Principal component analysis revealed that all of the measured variables were loaded in the same component, indicating that there was a strong relationship among these measured variables, which was confirmed by the correlation analysis. Two sets of sediment quality guidelines (SQGs): simultaneously extracted metal (SEM) and acid volatile sulfides (AVS) models (including ∑SEM/AVS, ∑SEM-AVS, and ∑SEM-AVS/ f (oc)) and threshold effect level and probable effect level values were used to predict the sediment toxicity. Comparison of the results obtained using these two sets of SQGs revealed that only a small portion of the entire set was identical, while the majority of the results were different and sometimes completely contradictory. These contradictory results would cause a great deal of trouble for environment managers. More accurate and universal SQGs must be developed for environmental researchers and local environmental managers and regulators.     

Passive ammonia monitoring in the United States: comparing three different sampling devices

The need for ambient gaseous ammonia (NH(3)) measurements has increased in the last decade as reactive NH(3) concentrations and deposition fluxes show little change even with tightening standards on nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) emissions. Currently, there are several networks developing methods for adding NH(3) measurements in the U.S. Gaseous NH(3) measurements will provide scientists and policymakers data which can be used to estimate ecosystem inputs, validate air quality models including trends and regional variability, and evaluate changes to the environment based on additional emission reduction requirements and estimates of critical nitrogen load exceedances. The passive samplers described in this paper were deployed in duplicate or triplicate and collocated with annular denuders or continuous instruments to determine their accuracy. The samplers assessed included the Adapted Low-Cost Passive High Absorption (ALPHA), Radiello(?), and Ogawa passive samplers. The median relative percent differences (MRPD) between the reference method and passive samplers for the ALPHA, Radiello(?) and Ogawa were -2.4%, -37% and -44%, respectively. The precision between duplicate samplers for the ALPHA and Ogawa samplers, was 7% and 6%, respectively. Triplicate Radiello(?) precision was assessed using the coefficient of variation (CV). The CV for the Radiello(?) samplers was 10%. This article discusses the statistical results from these studies.     

Transport of Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts in sandy soil: impact of length scale

The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of length scale (travel distance) on the retention and transport of Cryptosporidium oocysts in a sandy soil. Long columns (1 and 2 meters) and an in situ lysimeter (4 m) were used to allow investigation of larger-scale transport under controlled conditions. Significant retention of oocysts was observed, with the magnitude of removal from solution ranging between 2 to 5 logs. While the removal was greater for longer travel distances (or residence times), the increase was not log-linear. This observation indicates that oocyst transport was not consistent with standard colloid filtration theory. The observed behavior is speculated to arise, at least in part, from intrapopulation variability in oocyst properties. The results of this study indicate that while Cryptosporidium oocysts may be expected to experience significant retention and removal during transport in sandy soil, the magnitude of retention may be less than that which would be predicted by applying standard colloid filtration theory to the results of typical short-column experiments. Thus, a fraction of the oocysts may be more mobile than anticipated and thereby pose a greater than expected risk to groundwater.