Analysis of precipitation-related motor vehicle collision and injury risk using insurance and police record information for Winnipeg, Canada

Introduction

Police records are the most common source of data used to estimate motor-vehicle collision risks, understand causal or contributing factors, and evaluate the efficacy of interventions. The literature notes concerns about this information citing discrepancies between police reports and other sources of injury occurrence and severity data. The primary objective of the analysis was to assess the adequacy of police reports for an examination of weather-related injury collision risk.

Method

Analyses of relative risk were carried out using both police records and comprehensive insurance claim data for Winnipeg, Canada over the period 1999-2001.

Results and conclusions

Both data sets yielded very similar results—precipitation substantially increases the risk of injury collision (police records: RR 1.76, CI 1.55-2.00; insurance: RR 1.80, CI 1.62-1.99) and risk of injury (police records, RR 1.74, CI 1.55-1.96; insurance, RR 1.69, CI 1.55-1.85) relative to corresponding dry weather control periods. Both rainfall and snowfall were associated with large increases in collisions and injuries.

Impact on Industry

While relative risks are almost identical, over 64% more injury collisions and 74% more injuries were identified using the insurance data, which is an important difference for evaluating absolute risk and exposure.     

PC proxy: a method for dynamical tracer reconstruction

A detailed development of the principal component proxy method of dynamical tracer reconstruction is presented, including error analysis. The method works by correlating the largest principal components of a matrix representation of the transport dynamics with a set of sparse measurements. The Lyapunov spectrum was measured and used to quantify the lifetime of each principal component. The method was tested on the 500 K isentropic surface with stratospheric ozone concentration measurements from the Polar Aerosol and Ozone Measurement III satellite instrument during October and November 1998 and compared with the older proxy tracer method which works by correlating measurements with a single other tracer or proxy. Using a 60 day integration time and five (5) principal components, cross validation of globally reconstructed ozone and comparison with ozone sondes returned root-mean-square errors of 0.16 and 0.36 ppmv, respectively. This compares favourably with the classic proxy tracer method in which a passive tracer equivalent latitude field was used for the proxy and which returned RMS errors of 0.22 and 0.59 ppmv for cross-validation and sonde validation respectively. The method seems especially effective for shorter lived tracers and was far more accurate than the classic method at predicting ozone concentration in the Southern hemisphere over the same time period. It is also more effective when reconstruction is performed over the entire Earth rather than a single hemisphere allowing for seamless reconstruction of global fields.     

Reliability of Conservation Actions Based on Elasticity Analysis of Matrix Models

Abstract: Matrix population models have entered the mainstream of conservation biology, with analysis of proportional sensitivities (elasticity analysis) of demographic rates becoming important components of conservation decision making. We identify areas where management applications using elasticity analysis potentially conflict with the mathematical basis of the technique, and we use a hypothetical example and three real data sets (Prairie Chicken [   Tympanuchus cupido ], desert tortoise [ Gopherus agassizii ], and killer whale [ Orcinus orca ]) to evaluate the extent to which conservation recommendations based on elasticities might be misleading. First, changes in one demographic rate can change the qualitative ranking of the elasticity values calculated from a population matrix, a result that dampens enthusiasm for ranking conservation actions based solely on which rates have the highest elasticity values. Second, although elasticities often provide accurate predictions of future changes in population growth rate under management perturbations that are large or that affect more than one rate concurrently, concordance frequently fails when different rates vary by different amounts. In particular, when vital rates change to their high or low values observed in nature, predictions of future growth rate based on elasticities of a mean matrix can be misleading, even predicting population increase when the population growth rate actually declines following a perturbation. Elasticity measures will continue to be useful tools for applied ecologists, but they should be interpreted with considerable care. We suggest that studies using analytical elasticity analysis explicitly consider the range of variation possible for different rates and that simulation methods are a useful tool to this end.     

Environmental & economic life cycle assessment of current & future sewage sludge to energy technologies

The UK Water Industry currently generates approximately 800 GW h pa of electrical energy from sewage sludge. Traditionally energy recovery from sewage sludge features Anaerobic Digestion (AD) with biogas utilisation in combined heat and power (CHP) systems. However, the industry is evolving and a number of developments that extract more energy from sludge are either being implemented or are nearing full scale demonstration. This study compared five technology configurations: 1 – conventional AD with CHP, 2 – Thermal Hydrolysis Process (THP) AD with CHP, 3 – THP AD with bio-methane grid injection, 4 – THP AD with CHP followed by drying of digested sludge for solid fuel production, 5 – THP AD followed by drying, pyrolysis of the digested sludge and use of the both the biogas and the pyrolysis gas in a CHP.The economic and environmental Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) found that both the post AD drying options performed well but the option used to create a solid fuel to displace coal (configuration 4) was the most sustainable solution economically and environmentally, closely followed by the pyrolysis configuration (5). Application of THP improves the financial and environmental performance compared with conventional AD. Producing bio-methane for grid injection (configuration 3) is attractive financially but has the worst environmental impact of all the scenarios, suggesting that the current UK financial incentive policy for bio-methane is not driving best environmental practice. It is clear that new and improving processes and technologies are enabling significant opportunities for further energy recovery from sludge; LCA provides tools for determining the best overall options for particular situations and allows innovation resources and investment to be focused accordingly.     

To the bottom of the heart: cloacal movement as an index of cardiac frequency, respiration and digestive evacuation in penguins

A system is presented which uses a Hall sensor and an adjacent magnet, attached close to the cloaca of penguins, to record defecation, respiration and heart rates for both free-living birds and those in captivity. The output of the Hall sensor depends on a magnetic field, the strength of which is influenced in the presented scenario by the proximity of the magnet, which varies with movement of the cloaca. The elasticity of the cloaca results in minute, but perceptible, movements associated with the heart, respiration and defecation, although placement of the magnet and sensor is critical, and not all parameters can be measured all of the time. The system, incorporating a logger that can record at frequencies of 50 Hz, was tested on 17 captive and 4 free-living Magellanic penguins, Spheniscus magellanicus, in Argentina. It showed increased defecation rate associated with feeding, the expected trends in bradycardia and tachycardia associated with diving, and appeared to record some movement of air sacs associated with breathing. The concept of measuring minute changes in relative exterior body positions as a cue to internal processes may be important in future studies for both free-living and captive animals, particularly since it is non-invasive and relatively easy to deploy.Communicated by O. Kinne, Oldendorf/Luhe     

Fish production and the marine ecosystems of the Scotian Shelf,eastern Canada

Fishery production and food webs have been studied on the Scotian Shelf and upper continental slope along a transect running 270 km SE of Halifax, Canada. The area (TCNAF Division 4W) supports a fishery of roughly 0.15x10⁶ metric tons. Overall primary production of the shelf waters is 102 g C m^-2 year^-1 and of the slope wacers about 128 g C m^-2 year^-1. Demersal fish production (average 4.1 kcal m^-2 year^-1) is highest over the shelf and declines in an offshore direction, while pelagic fish production (average 16 kcal m^-2 year^-1) is highest over the slope and declines in an inshore direction. Hypothetical food webs of these two intergrading ecosystems have been constructed, based on data for primary production, fish catches, and the biomasses of zooplankton and macrobenthos. These lead us to suggest that there are basic differences in food chains and efficiencies between the two ecosystems that account for their differences in production. Although primary production is 17% higher on an average on the Nova Scotian transect than in the North Sea, the apparent zooplankton and macrobenthos production is 31% lower and macrobenthos production may also be lower. Overall fish catch from the Scotian Shelf and slope is about 47% lower per unit area than the catch in the North Sea, despite the fact that the demersal catches are identical. This is accounted for by a much lower overall pelagic catch from the Nova Scotian area, centered in a region that is small compared to the total area. Fish production in different regions cannot be predicted merely on the basis of differences in level of primary production, but must take into account differences in the structure of the ecosystems.     

Handling and Survivorship of African Wild Dog (Lycaon pictus) in Five Ecosystems

Populations of the African wild dog, Lycaon pictus have declined throughout their range in sub-Saharan Africa during the last 20 years. It has been hypothesized that handling of wild dogs led to local extinction of a study population in the Serengeti-Masai Mara ecosystem. In this paper we compare rates of mortality and disappearance in handled ( n = 305) versus unhandled ( n = 135) dogs to test the hypothesis that handling leads to increased mortality of Lycaon . We examine data from five ecosystems in which Lycaon have been handled. Our data show that there is no effect of handling on the longevity of Lycaon in any ecosystem studied. Given these data, a more parsimonious explanation of the decimation of the Serengeti-Mara Lycaon population would be that disease alone was responsible for the population collapse and that researcher handling of Lycaon was correlated with, but not causal to, this mortality.     

Design of Afterburners for Varnish Cookers

Currently, outdoor ozone levels in many U.S. cities exceed the primary health-based national ambient air quality standard. While outdoor ozone levels are an important measure of the severity of those exceedances, people typically spend more than 80 percent of their time Indoors, where ozone levels are lower. Indoor ozone levels range from 10 to 80 percent of outdoor levels, with many people receiving a substantial portion of their ozone exposure while indoors. This paper uses an Indoor air quality model (IAQM) to estimate indoor ozone levels by mlcroenvlronment type (home, office, and vehicle) and configuration (windows open, windows closed, older construction, weatherized, and air conditioned). The formulation of IAQM is discussed, along with specification of model parameters for ozone. The multicompartment version of IAQM is described, with a single-compartment version used for the analyses. IAQM-calculated ozone indoor-outdoor ratios compare well with research-reported values. Results indicate that ozone peak-concentration indoor-outdoor ratios range as follows: home—0.65 (windows open), 0.36 (air conditioned), 0.23 (typical construction, windows closed), and 0.05 (energy-efficient construction, windows closed); office—0.82 (heat-Ing, ventilation and air conditioning systems supplying 100 percent outdoor air), 0.60 (typical HVAC), and 0.32 (energy-efficient HVAC); and vehicle—0.41 (85 mph), 0.33 (55 mph), and 0.21 (10 mph). Analysis results are presented to characterize IAQM’s sensitivity to assumed model parameters.