Gradient forests: calculating importance gradients on physical predictors

In ecological analyses of species and community distributions there is interest in the nature of their responses to environmental gradients and in identifying the most important environmental variables, which may be used for predicting patterns of biodiversity. Methods such as random forests already exist to assess predictor importance for individual species and to indicate where along gradients abundance changes. However, there is a need to extend these methods to whole assemblages, to establish where along the range of these gradients the important compositional changes occur, and to identify any important thresholds or change points. We develop such a method, called "gradient forest," which is an extension of the random forest approach. By synthesizing the cross-validated R2 and accuracy importance measures from univariate random forest analyses across multiple species, sampling devices, and surveys, gradient forest obtains a monotonic function of each predictor that represents the compositional turnover along the gradient of the predictor. When applied to a synthetic data set, the method correctly identified the important predictors and delineated where the compositional change points occurred along these gradients. Application of gradient forest to a real data set from part of the Great Barrier Reef identified mud fraction of the sediment as the most important predictor, with highest compositional turnover occurring at mud fraction values around 25%, and provided similar information for other predictors. Such refined information allows for more accurate capturing of biodiversity patterns for the purposes of bioregionalization, delineation of protected areas, or designing of biodiversity surveys.     

Sand and dust storms: underrated natural hazards

Sand and dust storms (SDS) are wind erosion events typically associated with dryland regions, although they can occur in most environments and their impacts are frequently experienced outside drylands because desert dust haze often is transported great distances. SDS represent hazards to society in numerous ways, yet they do not feature prominently in the disasters literature. This paper considers SDS in a hazard context by examining their ramifications in economic, physical, and social terms, with a focus on agriculture, health, transport, utilities, households, and the commercial and manufacturing sector. There are few assessments of the economic consequences of SDS and those studies that have been conducted lack consistency in data collection methods and analysis. SDS do not result in the significant damage to infrastructure usually associated with many disasters, but the cumulative effects on society can be significant because SDS occur more commonly than most other types of natural hazard.     

Testing genuine savings as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being over the (very) long-run

Genuine Savings (GS) have been much used in recent years as an indicator of a country's sustainability. According to some theorists (e.g. Arrow et al., 2012), under certain conditions a country with a positive level of GS should experience non-declining future utility, given the assumption of unlimited substitutability among all forms of capital (sometimes called “weak” sustainability). This paper reports the first very long-run tests of GS (also called comprehensive investment or adjusted net savings) as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being. We assemble data for British capital back to 1765, and construct several net investment measures which are used as indicators of two alternative measures of future well-being: consumption per capita and real wages. An allowance for a “value of time” due to exogenous technological progress is included in some GS measures, and we demonstrate the importance of this measure and the choice of discount rate over the very long-run. On the whole, our results do not reject the postulated relationship between GS and future well-being, and show GS can be a forward looking indicator of future well-being for periods of up to 100 years.     

Impacts of mussel dredging on sediment phosphorus dynamics in a eutrophic Danish fjord

Effects of mussel dredging on sediment metabolism (oxygen uptake and sulfate reduction rates) and phosphorus dynamics (flux across sediment-water interface and sequential extraction) were examined in Limfjorden (Denmark) during spring (May) and summer (August). Sediment samples were taken during mussel dredging and in addition an experimental simulation of the dredging was performed to investigate short-term changes in phosphorus (P) dynamics. Iron-bound P was reduced by up to 2/3 in the surface layer in the dredging track (from 31 to 8?mmol?P?m^?2), whereas the dissolved P-pools and less reactive particulate pools were not affected by dredging. Sediment oxygen consumption was enhanced immediately after dredging, but returned to the initial level after 4 days (20–40?mmol?m^?2?d^?1). The enhanced consumption was attributed to reoxidation of reduced compounds released during dredging. Sulfate reduction rates were high in the area (13–15?mmol?m^?2?d^?1) and sulfides competed with P for oxidized iron resulting in low iron-bound pools in the area (<4% of total P pools). Sulfate reduction rates were stimulated by the resuspension of sediments, especially in August, where a subsurface maximum was found, possibly due to a mixing of labile organic matter into these layers. In contrast sulfate reduction rates were reduced in the dredging track due to removal of labile organic matter from the surface layers. The loss of P during dredging was to some extent counteracted by regeneration of iron-bound P pools in the surface layers. The release of P due to mussel dredging was estimated to be in the same order of magnitude as the annual loading from the catchments and point sources to Limfjorden.     

Resource- and eco-effectiveness as a new paradigm of development to prevent resource depletion and environmental imbalance

SUMMARY

The increase in the number of golf courses around the world has been phenomenal, particularly since the 1990s where an estimated 350 new courses were added annually to the more than 25 000 existing ones. In terms of recreational sports spaces, golf arguably uses the greatest amount of land. Using the case study of Singapore, it is argued that the continual expansion of golf courses runs counter to the broad ideal of urban sustainability. The arguments that support golf course expansion viz. reducing the issue to a matter of supply and demand and extolling golfs economic benefits pay scant attention to principles of equity and sustainability. Although existing green spaces risk being converted into golf courses, golf course maintenance itself can be ecologically benign. However, the elitist nature of golf in Singapore ultimately imposes greater and unnecessary demands on resources in general. Given Singapore's land scarcity, golf course expansion is opposed not so much because of its ecological impacts but because of how it compromises spatial equity.     

Divergent composition but similar function of soil food webs of individual plants: plant species and community effects

Soils are extremely rich in biodiversity, and soil organisms play pivotal roles in supporting terrestrial life, but the role that individual plants and plant communities play in influencing the diversity and functioning of soil food webs remains highly debated. Plants, as primary producers and providers of resources to the soil food web, are of vital importance for the composition, structure, and functioning of soil communities. However, whether natural soil food webs that are completely open to immigration and emigration differ underneath individual plants remains unknown. In a biodiversity restoration experiment we first compared the soil nematode communities of 228 individual plants belonging to eight herbaceous species. We included grass, leguminous, and non-leguminous species. Each individual plant grew intermingled with other species, but all plant species had a different nematode community. Moreover, nematode communities were more similar when plant individuals were growing in the same as compared to different plant communities, and these effects were most apparent for the groups of bacterivorous, carnivorous, and omnivorous nematodes. Subsequently, we analyzed the composition, structure, and functioning of the complete soil food webs of 58 individual plants, belonging to two of the plant species, Lotus corniculatus (Fabaceae) and Plantago lanceolata (Plantaginaceae). We isolated and identified more than 150 taxa/groups of soil organisms. The soil community composition and structure of the entire food webs were influenced both by the species identity of the plant individual and the surrounding plant community. Unexpectedly, plant identity had the strongest effects on decomposing soil organisms, widely believed to be generalist feeders. In contrast, quantitative food web modeling showed that the composition of the plant community influenced nitrogen mineralization under individual plants, but that plant species identity did not affect nitrogen or carbon mineralization or food web stability. Hence, the composition and structure of entire soil food webs vary at the scale of individual plants and are strongly influenced by the species identity of the plant. However, the ecosystem functions these food webs provide are determined by the identity of the entire plant community.     

Social feedback and attractiveness in zebra finches

The attractiveness of an individual (i.e. its ability to arouse interest in a potential mate) has important implications for its reproductive success. However, attractiveness is not a fixed trait. Previous work has shown that male birds can adjust the intensity of their courtship display in response to variation in female behaviour, but little is known about how males adjust their behaviour during mate choice in response to social feedback about their own attractiveness independent of their intrinsic quality. Such information may help to maximize the potential mating success of males. Here, we provide experimental evidence that the amount of attention given by male zebra finches to females is dependent upon the manipulated attractiveness of males. This demonstrates that, in this socially monogamous species of bird, attractiveness of males could be considered to be a social construct, at least partially determined via social feedback from females.     

Phylogeny, niches, and relative abundance in natural communities

Community structure refers to the number of species in a community and the pattern of distribution of individuals among those species. We use a novel way of representing community structure to show that abundance within closely related pairs of co-occurring tree species in a highly diverse Mexican forest is more equitable than is abundance within more distantly related pairs. This observation is at odds with the fundamental assumption of neutral models of community structure, i.e., that species are interchangeable. The observed patterns suggest niche apportionment, in which interaction is focused pairwise between congeners but falls away from the phylogenetic structure above the genus level. Thus niche processes may significantly affect community structure through regulating relative abundance in a substantial proportion of species, which in turn potentially enhances community stability. One such mechanism of stable coexistence has already been shown to be active in this forest.