Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Exploratory Analysis of the Winter Chemistry of Five Lakes on the North Slope of Alaska1

Abstract: Lakes are important water resources on the North Slope of Alaska. Freshwater is required for oilfield production as well as exploration, which occurs largely on ice roads and pads. Since most North Slope lakes are shallow, the quantity and quality of the water under ice at the end of winter are important environmental management issues. Currently, water‐use permits are a function of the presence of overwintering fish populations, and their sensitivity to low oxygen concentrations. Sampling of five North Slope lakes during the winter of 2004‐2005 shed some light on the winter chemistry of four lakes that were used as water supplies and one undisturbed lake. Field analysis was conducted for oxygen, conductivity, pH, and temperature throughout the lake depth, as well as ice thickness and water depth. Water samples were retrieved from the lakes and analyzed for Na, Ca, K, Mg, Fe, dissolved‐organic carbon, and alkalinity in the laboratory. Lake properties, rather than pumping, were the best predictors of oxygen depletion, with the highest dissolved‐oxygen levels maintained in the lake with the lowest concentration of constituents. Volume weighted mean dissolved‐oxygen concentrations ranged from 4 to 94% of saturation in March. Dissolved oxygen and specific conductance data suggested that the lakes began to refresh in May.     

Atrazine sorption and fate in a Ultisol from humid tropical Brazil

This study combined laboratory based microcosm systems as well as field experiments to evaluate the mobility of atrazine on a Ultisol under humid tropical conditions in Brazil. Results from sorption experiments fit to the Freundlich isotherm model [K(f) 0.99 mg kg(-1)/(mg l(-1))(1/n)], and indicate a low sorption capacity for atrazine in this soil and consequently large potential for movement by leaching and runoff. Microcosm systems using (14)C-atrazine to trace the fate of the applied herbicide, showed that 0.33% of the atrazine was volatilized, 0.25% mineralized and 6.89% was recorded in the leachate. After 60 d in the microcosms, 75% of the (14)C remained in the upper 5 cm soil layer indicating atrazine or its metabolites remained close to the soil surface. In field experiments, after 60 d, only 5% of the atrazine applied was recovered in the upper soil layers. In the field experiments atrazine was detected at a depth of 50 cm indicating leaching. Simulating tropical rain in field experiments resulted in 2.1% loss of atrazine in runoff of which 0.5% was adsorbed onto transported soil particles and 1.6% was in solution. Atrazine runoff was greatest two days after herbicide application and decreased 10 fold after 15 d. The use of atrazine on Ultisols, in the humid tropics, constitutes a threat to water quality, causing surface water and ground water pollution.     

CHemical and Biological Assessment of an Urban, Estuarine marsh in Northeastern New Jersey USA

Oritani Marsh in the Hackensack Meadowlands of urbanized northeastern New Jersey USA was assessed in 2000 for vegetation, soil/sediment chemistry, abundance/diversity of benthic invertebrates, and bird and mammal usage. Vegetatively, both marsh and uplands are dominated by tall, dense Phragmites australis. Small patches (less than 2 hectares total) dominated by Spartina spp. were found at the lowest elevations. Soil/sediment cores were sliced into 5 intervals and analyzed for metals, pesticides and volatile/semivolatile organic compounds. Thirteen locations had at least one chemical above Long et al.’s [Environmental Management, 19, 1995, 81--97] “Effects Range-Median” (ERM). Seven metals and nine organics exceeded ERM in at least one sample, with mercury showing the most exceedances. The surface 15 cm interval was generally more contaminated with metals than the 15 to 30 cm interval; the reverse was true for semivolatile organic compounds. Twenty taxa of benthic macroinvertebrates were collected, with each location producing from 1 to 9 taxa. Abundance ranged from 11 to 3,889 individuals/m². Number of taxa was moderately (r ² between 0.40 and 0.70) negatively correlated with zinc, beryllium, nickel and arsenic concentrations; no other chemical’s r ² was above 0.25. Diversity was moderately negatively correlated with arsenic and beryllium. These correlations were unexpected: zinc, beryllium, nickel and arsenic were not the chemicals found at the highest concentrations relative to benchmarks. Number of taxa, abundance and diversity were moderately (negatively) correlated with elevation; organic carbon was moderately (positively) correlated with abundance. All other correlations were weak (r ² < 0.35). Live traps captured only one mammal species, the meadow jumping mouse. Bird observations revealed 39 species, dominated by a few common species.     

Catalyst deterioration over the lifetime of small utility engines

In this paper, the deterioration of catalysts in small, four-stroke, spark-ignition engines is described. The laboratory testing performed followed a proven test method that mimics the lifetime of a small air-cooled utility engine operating under normal field conditions. The engines used were single-cylinder, 6.5-hp, side-valve engines. These engines have a nominal 125-hr lifetime. The effectiveness of the catalysts was determined by testing exhaust emissions before and after the catalyst to determine the catalyst's efficiency. This was done several times during the lifetime of the engines to determine the deterioration in the performance of the catalysts at lowering pollutant emissions. Additional testing was performed on the catalysts to determine wear patterns, contamination, and recoverable activity. The results indicate that considerable catalyst deterioration is occurring over the lifetime of the engine. The results reveal that soot buildup, poisons, and active surface loss appear to be the contributing factors to the deterioration. These results were determined after analyzing the exhaust emissions data, scanning electron microscope results analysis, and the impact of regeneration attempts. An ANOVA statistical analysis was performed, and it was determined that the emissions are also impacted, to some degree, by time and the engine itself.     

Soil and vegetation carbon stocks in Brazilian Western Amazonia: relationships and ecological implications for natural landscapes

The relationships between soils attributes, soil carbon stocks and vegetation carbon stocks are poorly know in Amazonia, even at regional scale. In this paper, we used the large and reliable soil database from Western Amazonia obtained from the RADAMBRASIL project and recent estimates of vegetation biomass to investigate some environmental relationships, quantifying C stocks of intact ecosystem in Western Amazonia. The results allowed separating the western Amazonia into 6 sectors, called pedo-zones: Roraima, Rio Negro Basin, Tertiary Plateaux of the Amazon, Javari-Juruá-Purus lowland, Acre Basin and Rondonia uplands. The highest C stock for the whole soil is observed in the Acre and in the Rio Negro sectors. In the former, this is due to the high nutrient status and high clay activity, whereas in the latter, it is attributed to a downward carbon movement attributed to widespread podzolization and arenization, forming spodic horizons. The youthful nature of shallow soils of the Javari-Juruá-Purus lowlands, associated with high Al, results in a high phytomass C/soil C ratio. A similar trend was observed for the shallow soils from the Roraima and Rondonia highlands. A consistent east–west decline in biomass carbon in the Rio Negro Basin sector is associated with increasing rainfall and higher sand amounts. It is related to lesser C protection and greater C loss of sandy soils, subjected to active chemical leaching and widespread podzolization. Also, these soils possess lower cation exchangeable capacity and lower water retention capacity. Zones where deeply weathered Latosols dominate have a overall pattern of high C sequestration, and greater than the shallower soils from the upper Amazon, west of Madeira and Negro rivers. This was attributed to deeper incorporation of carbon in these clayey and highly pedo-bioturbated soils. The results highlight the urgent need for refining soil data at an appropriate scale for C stocks calculations purposes in Amazonia. There is a risk of misinterpreting C stocks in Amazonia when such great pedological variability is not taken into account.     

Pesticide Residues in Bovine Milk from a Predominantly Agricultural State of Haryana, India

One hundred forty seven samples of bovine milk were collected from 14 districts of Haryana, India during December 1998–February 1999 and analysed for the presence of organochlorine pesticide (OCPs) residues. ∑HCH, ∑DDT, ∑endosulfan and aldrin were detected in 100%, 97%, 43% and 12% samples and with mean values of 0.0292, 0.0367, 0.0022 and 0.0036 μg/ml, respectively. Eight percent samples exceeded the maximum residue limit (MRL) of 0.10 mg/kg as recommended by WHO for ∑HCH, 4% samples of 0.05 mg/kg for α-HCH, 5% samples of 0.01 mg/kg for γ-HCH, 26% samples of 0.02 mg/kg for β-HCH as recommended by PFAA and 24% samples of 0.05 mg/kg as recommended by FAO for ∑DDT. Concentrations of β-HCH and p,p′-DDE were more as compared to other isomers and metabolites of HCH and DDT.