Airshed Model Evaluation of Reactivity Adjustment Factors Calculated with the Maximum Incremental Reactivity Scale for Transitional-Low Emission Vehicles

Abstract

The California Air Resources Board recently adopted regulations for light- and medium-duty vehicles that require reductions in the ozone-forming potential or “reactivity,” rather than the mass, of nonmethane organic gas (NMOG) emissions. The regulations allow sale of all alternatively fueled vehicles (AFVs) that meet NMOG exhaust emission standards equivalent in reactivity to those set for vehicles fueled with conventional gasoline. Reactivity adjustment factors (RAFs), the ratio of the reactivity (per gram) of the AFV exhaust to that of the conventionally fueled vehicle (CFV), are used to correct the stringent exhaust emission standards. Complete chemical speciation of the exhaust and conversion of each NMOG species to an appropriate mass of ozone using the maximum incremental reactivity (MIR) scale of Carter determines the RAF. The MIR approach defines reactivity where NMOG control is the most effective strategy in reducing ozone concentrations, and assumes it is not important to define reactivity at other conditions, i.e., where NO_x is the limiting precursor.

This study used the Carnegie/California Institute of Technology airshed model to evaluate whether the RAF-adjusted AFV emissions result in ozone impacts equivalent to those of CFV emissions. A matrix of two ozone episodes in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) of California, two base emission inventories, and exhaust emissions from three alternative fuels that meet the first level of the low emission vehicle standards bounds the expected range of conditions. Although very good agreement was found previously for individual NMOG species,² this study noted deviations of up to ±15 percent from the equal ozone impacts for any vehicle/fuel combination required by the California regulations. These deviations appear to be attributable to differences in spatial and temporal patterns of emissions between vehicle fleets, rather than a problem with the MIR approach. The first formally adopted RAF, a value of 0.41 for 85 percent methanol/15 percent gasoline-fueled vehicles, includes a 10 percent increase based on the airshed modeling. The correction to the RAF is different for other fuels and may be different for air basins other than the SoCAB.     

Quantifying structural physical habitat attributes using LIDAR and hyperspectral imagery

Structural physical habitat attributes include indices of stream size, channel gradient, substrate size, habitat complexity, and riparian vegetation cover and structure. The Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) is designed to assess the status and trends of ecological resources at different scales. High-resolution remote sensing provides unique capabilities in detecting a variety of features and indicators of environmental health and condition. LIDAR is an airborne scanning laser system that provides data on topography, channel dimensions (width, depth), slope, channel complexity (residual pools, volume, morphometric complexity, hydraulic roughness), riparian vegetation (height and density), dimensions of riparian zone, anthropogenic alterations and disturbances, and channel and riparian interaction. Hyperspectral aerial imagery offers the advantage of high spectral and spatial resolution allowing for the detection and identification of riparian vegetation and natural and anthropogenic features at a resolution not possible with satellite imagery. When combined, or fused, these technologies comprise a powerful geospatial data set for assessing and monitoring lentic and lotic environmental characteristics and condition.     

Phosphorus concentrations in soil and subsurface water: a field study among cropland and riparian buffers

Riparian buffers can be effective at removing phosphorus (P) in overland flow, but their influence on subsurface P loading is not well known. Phosphorus concentrations in the soil, soil solution, and shallow ground water of 16 paired cropland-buffer plots were characterized during 2004 and 2005. The sites were located at two private dairy farms in Central New York on silt and gravelly silt loams (Aeric Endoaqualfs, Fluvaquentic Endoaquepts, Fluvaquentic Eutrudepts, Glossaquic Hapludalfs, and Glossic Hapludalfs). It was hypothesized that P availability (sodium acetate extractable-P) and soil-landscape variability would affect P release to the soil solution and shallow ground water. Results showed that P availability tended to be greater in crop fields relative to paired buffer plots. Soil P was a good indicator of soil solution dissolved (<0.45 microm) molybdate-reactive P (DRP) concentrations among plots, but was not independently effective at predicting ground water DRP concentrations. Mean ground water DRP in corn fields ranged from < or =20 to 80 microg L(-1), with lower concentrations in hay and buffer plots. More imperfectly drained crop fields and buffers tended to have greater average DRP, particulate (> or =0.45 microm) reactive P (PRP), and dissolved unreactive P (DUP) concentrations in ground water. Soil organic matter and 50-cm depth soil solution DRP in buffers jointly explained 75% of the average buffer ground water DRP variability. Results suggest that buffers were relatively effective at reducing soil solution and shallow ground water DRP concentrations, but their impact on particulate and organic P in ground water was less clear.     

Four priorities for new links between conservation science and accounting research

Article impact statement: New collaborations with accounting research can improve conservation impact of ecosystem-based information systems.     

Comparison of SOC estimates and uncertainties from aerosol chemical composition and gas phase data in Atlanta

In the Southeastern US, organic carbon (OC) comprises about 30% of the PM_2.5 mass. A large fraction of OC is estimated to be of secondary origin. Long-term estimates of SOC and uncertainties are necessary in the evaluation of air quality policy effectiveness and epidemiologic studies. Four methods to estimate secondary organic carbon (SOC) and respective uncertainties are compared utilizing PM_2.5 chemical composition and gas phase data available in Atlanta from 1999 to 2007. The elemental carbon (EC) tracer and the regression methods, which rely on the use of tracer species of primary and secondary OC formation, provided intermediate estimates of SOC as 30% of OC. The other two methods, chemical mass balance (CMB) and positive matrix factorization (PMF) solve mass balance equations to estimate primary and secondary fractions based on source profiles and statistically-derived common factors, respectively. CMB had the highest estimate of SOC (46% of OC) while PMF led to the lowest (26% of OC). The comparison of SOC uncertainties, estimated based on propagation of errors, led to the regression method having the lowest uncertainty among the four methods. We compared the estimates with the water soluble fraction of the OC, which has been suggested as a surrogate of SOC when biomass burning is negligible, and found a similar trend with SOC estimates from the regression method. The regression method also showed the strongest correlation with daily SOC estimates from CMB using molecular markers. The regression method shows advantages over the other methods in the calculation of a long-term series of SOC estimates.     

Numerical Investigation of the Effects of Boundary-Layer Evolution on the Predictions of Ozone and the Efficacy of Emission Control Options in the Northeastern United States

This paper examines the effects of two different planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization schemes – Blackadar and Gayno–Seaman – on the predicted ozone (O₃) concentration fields using the MM5 (Version 3.3) meteorological model and the MODELS-3 photochemical model. The meteorological fields obtained from the two boundary-layer schemes have been used to drive the photochemical model to simulate O₃ concentrations in the northeastern United States for a three-day O₃ episodic period. In addition to large differences in the predicted O₃ levels at individual grid cells, the simulated daily maximum 1-h O₃ concentrations appear at different regions of the modeling domain in these simulations, due to the differences in the vertical exchange formulations in these two PBL schemes. Using process analysis, we compared the differences between the different simulations in terms of the relative importance of chemical and physical processes to O₃ formation and destruction over the diurnal cycle. Finally, examination of the photochemical model's response to reductions in emissions reveals that the choice of equally valid boundary-layer parameterizations can significantly influence the efficacy of emission control strategies.     

Association patterns among male and female spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta) reflect male mate choice

Although female animals tend to be choosier than males in selecting mates, sexual selection theory predicts that males should also be choosy when female fecundity varies. Reproductive success among female spotted hyenas varies greatly with social rank. Our goals were therefore to determine whether male hyenas preferentially associate with high-ranking females, and whether male preferences are affected by female reproductive state. Interactions between adult males and females were observed intensively, and association indices calculated for all male-female pairs, over a 7-year period in one population of free-living hyenas. Males initiated most affiliative interactions with females, and males associated most closely with females that were likeliest to be fertile. High- and middle-ranking males associated most closely with high-ranking females, but low-ranking males associated equally closely with females in all rank categories. We used molecular markers to determine the paternity of cubs born during the study period, and found that sires associated more closely with the mothers of those cubs than did non-sires, particularly during the last months before conception. These association data indicate that male spotted hyenas do indeed exhibit selective mate choice, and that they prefer females likeliest to maximize male reproductive success.     

Physical characterization of the fine particle emissions from commercial aircraft engines during the Aircraft Particle Emissions eXperiment (APEX) 1–3

The fine particulate matter (PM) emissions from nine commercial aircraft engine models were determined by plume sampling during the three field campaigns of the Aircraft Particle Emissions Experiment (APEX). Ground-based measurements were made primarily at 30 m behind the engine for PM mass and number concentration, particle size distribution, and total volatile matter using both time-integrated and continuous sampling techniques. The experimental results showed a PM mass emission index (EI) ranging from 10 to 550 mg kg^?1 fuel depending on engine type and test parameters as well as a characteristic U-shaped curve of the mass EI with increasing fuel flow for the turbofan engines tested. Also, the Teflon filter sampling indicated that ～40–80% of the total PM mass on a test-average basis was comprised of volatile matter (sulfur and organics) for most engines sampled. The number EIs, on the other hand, varied from ～10¹⁵ to 10¹⁷ particles kg^?1 fuel with the turbofan engines exhibiting a logarithmic decay with increasing fuel flow. Finally, the particle size distributions of the emissions exhibited a single primary mode that were lognormally distributed with a minor accumulation mode also observed at higher powers for all engines tested. The geometric (number) mean particle diameter ranged from 9.4 to 37 nm and the geometric standard deviation ranged from 1.3 to 2.3 depending on engine type, fuel flow, and test conditions.     

Modeling an air pollution episode in northwestern United States: Identifying the effect of nitrogen oxide and volatile organic compound emission changes on air pollutants formation using direct sensitivity analysis

Air quality impacts of volatile organic compound (VOC) and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions from major sources over the northwestern United States are simulated. The comprehensive nested modeling system comprises three models: Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE). In addition, the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) is used to determine the sensitivities of pollutant concentrations to changes in precursor emissions during a severe smog episode in July of 2006. The average simulated 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentration is 48.9 ppb, with 1-hr O₃ maxima up to 106 ppb (40 km southeast of Seattle). The average simulated PM_2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm) concentration at the measurement sites is 9.06 μg m^?3, which is in good agreement with the observed concentration (8.06 μg m^?3). In urban areas (i.e., Seattle, Vancouver, etc.), the model predicts that, on average, a reduction of NO_x emissions is simulated to lead to an increase in average 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations, and will be most prominent in Seattle (where the greatest sensitivity is??0.2 ppb per % change of mobile sources). On the other hand, decreasing NO_x emissions is simulated to decrease the 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations in remote and forested areas. Decreased NO_x emissions are simulated to slightly increase PM_2.5 in major urban areas. In urban areas, a decrease in VOC emissions will result in a decrease of 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations. The impact of decreased VOC emissions from biogenic, mobile, nonroad, and area sources on average 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations is up to 0.05 ppb decrease per % of emission change, each. Decreased emissions of VOCs decrease average PM_2.5 concentrations in the entire modeling domain. In major cities, PM_2.5 concentrations are more sensitive to emissions of VOCs from biogenic sources than other sources of VOCs. These results can be used to interpret the effectiveness of VOC or NO_x controls over pollutant concentrations, especially for localities that may exceed National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).

Implications: The effect of NO_x and VOC controls on ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations in the northwestern United States is examined using the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) in a state-of-the-art three-dimensional chemical transport model (CMAQ). NO_x controls are predicted to increase PM_2.5 and ozone in major urban areas and decrease ozone in more remote and forested areas. VOC reductions are helpful in reducing ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations in urban areas. Biogenic VOC sources have the largest impact on O₃ and PM_2.5 concentrations.