Information-theoretic approaches to statistical analysis in behavioural ecology: an introduction

Scientific thinking may require the consideration of multiple hypotheses, which often call for complex statistical models at the level of data analysis. The aim of this introduction is to provide a brief overview on how competing hypotheses are evaluated statistically in behavioural ecological studies and to offer potentially fruitful avenues for future methodological developments. Complex models have traditionally been treated by model selection approaches using threshold-based removal of terms, i.e. stepwise selection. A recently introduced method for model selection applies an information-theoretic (IT) approach, which simultaneously evaluates hypotheses by balancing between model complexity and goodness of fit. The IT method has been increasingly propagated in the field of ecology, while a literature survey shows that its spread in behavioural ecology has been much slower, and model simplification using stepwise selection is still more widespread than IT-based model selection. Why has the use of IT methods in behavioural ecology lagged behind other disciplines? This special issue examines the suitability of the IT method for analysing data with multiple predictors, which researchers encounter in our field. The volume brings together different viewpoints to aid behavioural ecologists in understanding the method, with the hope of enhancing the statistical integration of our discipline.     

A coupled numerical model to investigate the air–sea interaction at the coastal upwelling area of Cabo Frio,Brazil

This work investigates the capability of an oceanic numerical model dynamic and thermodynamically coupled to a three-dimensional mesoscale atmospheric numerical model to simulate the basic features of the air–sea interaction in the coastal upwelling area of Cabo Frio (RJ, Brazil). The upwelling/downwelling regime is an important feature in the oceanic circulation of Cabo Frio and determines the sustainability of local ecosystems. This regime is predominantly driven by the atmospheric circulation and is well documented, being suitable to be used as test reference for atmospheric and oceanic coupled and uncoupled models. The oceanic boundary conditions, coastline shape and coupling effect have been tested. The uncoupled oceanic model forced by a NE (SW) wind field generates a realistic upwelling (downwelling) phenomenon regardless of the proximity of the lateral boundary and how realistic is the shape of the coastline. The atmospheric-oceanic coupled model generates an upwelling location and intensity similar to the uncoupled simulation, but the upwelling is gradually enhanced by the sea-breeze circulation. It also generates vertical profiles of mixing ratio that compare better to the observations than the uncoupled simulation and air potential temperature and wind vertical profiles that represent particular features of the atmospheric circulation at Cabo Frio.     

Spatial factors affecting statistical power in testing marine fauna displacement

Impacts of offshore wind farms on marine fauna are largely unknown. Therefore, one commonly adheres to the precautionary principle, which states that one shall take action to avoid potentially damaging impacts on marine ecosystems, even when full scientific certainty is lacking. We implement this principle by means of a statistical power analysis including spatial factors. Implementation is based on geostatistical simulations, accommodating for zero-inflation in species data. We investigate scenarios in which an impact assessment still has to be carried out. Our results show that the environmental conditions at the time of the survey is the most influential factor on power. This is followed by survey effort and species abundance in the reference situation. Spatial dependence in species numbers at local scales affects power, but its effect is smaller for the scenarios investigated. Our findings can be used to improve effectiveness of the economical investment for monitoring surveys. In addition, unnecessary extra survey effort, and related costs, can be avoided when spatial dependence in species abundance is present and no improvement on power is achieved.     

Airborne pollen of ornamental tree species in the NW of Spain

This study analyzed airborne pollen counts for the tree taxa most widely used for ornamental purposes in the northwestern Iberian Peninsula (Platanus, Cupressaceae, Olea, Myrtaceae, Cedrus, and Casuarina) at four sites (Vigo, Ourense, Santiago, and Lugo), using aerobiological data recorded over a long period (1993?C2007). The abundance and the temporal and spatial distribution of these pollen types were analyzed, and the influence of weather-related factors on airborne pollen counts was assessed. Platanus (in Ourense) and Olea (in Vigo) were the taxa contributing most to pollen counts. In general terms, the results may be taken as indicators of potential risk for pollen-allergy sufferers and therefore used in planning future green areas.     

Modulation of attention and urgent decisions by affect-laden roadside advertisement in risky driving scenarios

In road safety literature the effects of emotional content and salience of advertising billboards have been scarcely investigated. The main aim of this work was to uncover how affect-laden roadside advertisements can affect attention – eye-movements – and subsequent risky decisions – braking – on the Honda Riding Trainer motorcycle simulator. Results indicated that the number of fixations and total fixation time elicited by the negative and positive emotional advertisements were larger than the neutral ones. At the same time, negative pictures got later gaze disengagement than positive and neutral ones. This attentional capture results in less eye fixation times on the road relevant region, where the important driving events happen. Finally, the negative emotional valence advertisements sped up braking on subsequent risky situations. Overall results demonstrated how advertisements with emotional content modulate attention allocation and driving decisions in risky situations and might be helpful for designing roadside advertisements regulations and risk prevention programs.     

Occupational accidents model based on risk–injury affinity groups

This article sets outs a generalized utility model for the diagnosis and prediction of accidents among the Spanish workforce. Based on observational data classified into a risk–injury contingency table (19 × 19), we have summarized the accident rate of all Spanish companies over an 11-year period (75,19,732 accidents). By using correspondence analysis a structure composed of three axes can be obtained, the combination of which identifies three separate risk and injury groups, which we use as a general Spanish pattern. The relationships of greater affinity or likelihood amongst the risks and injuries identified in the pattern facilitate decision-making at the risk-assessment stage in Spanish companies. Each risk–injury group has its own characteristics, interpretable within the phenomenological framework of the accident.The main advantage of this model is its potential application to any other country and the feasibility of contrasting results from different countries. One limiting factor, however, is that the model currently lacks a common classification frame for risks and injuries which would enhance this contrast. The aim of this model is to automatically manage work-related accidents at a national level.     

The development of probabilistic models to estimate accident risk (due to runway overrun and landing undershoot) applicable to the design and construction of runway safety areas

The risks of landing overrun (LDOR – LanDing OverRun), Take-off Overrun (TOOR – Take-Off OverRun) and landing undershoot (LDUS – LanDing UnderShoot) are dependent on multiple factors related to operating conditions. These include wind, runway surface conditions, landing or take-off distances required, the presence of obstacles, runway distance available, the existence and dimensions of runway safety areas.In this paper we propose risk models for runway overrun and landing undershoot, using a probabilistic approach. These models are supported by historical data on accidents in the area around the runway and will enable us to determine if the risk level is acceptable or whether action must be taken to mitigate such risks at a given airport. Furthermore, these models permit comparison of the results of different risk mitigation actions in terms of operational risk and safety.The principal advantage of this method is the high quality results obtained for a limited investment in terms of time, computing power and data. As such the method is extremely practical and easy to apply in aerodrome planning, development and operation.     

Techno-economical efficiency and productivity change of wastewater treatment plants: the role of internal and external factors

Efficiency and productivity are important measures for identifying best practice in businesses and optimising resource-use. This study analyses how these two measures change across the period 2003-2008 for 196 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Spain, by using the benchmarking methods of Data Envelopment Analysis and the Malmquist Productivity Index. To identify which variables contribute to the sustainability of the WWTPs, differences in efficiency scores and productivity indices for external factors are also investigated. Our results indicate that both efficiency and productivity decreased over the five years. We verify that the productivity drop is primarily explained by technical change. Furthermore, certain external variables affected WWTP efficiency, including plant size, treatment technology and energy consumption. However, plants with low energy consumption are the only ones which improve their productivity. Finally, the benchmarking analyses proved to be useful as management tools in the wastewater sector, by providing vital information for improving the sustainability of plants.     

Temperature effect of tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM) system measuring semi-volatile organic particulate matter

The tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM) system is widely used to measure continuous particle mass concentrations in air quality networks. However, the semi-volatile aerosol material is lost under normal operation conditions (50 °C). This study has evaluated the error in the organic fraction of the TEOM-measured secondary organic aerosols formed from the degradation of biogenic pollutants. Experiments were carried out under controlled, water-free conditions in a fully equipped, high volume atmospheric simulator--the European PhotoReactor (EUPHORE). The ozonolysis of α-pinene, β-pinene and limonene provided a reproducible source of organic aerosol. Particulate matter concentration profiles were registered for different TEOM operating temperatures. When these values were compared with values from a filter-based gravimetric method and a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS), they showed that the differences between monitoring systems increased with increasing TEOM temperature. According to our results, when the TEOM is operated at 50 °C, it fails to measure 32-46% of the organic particulate material, depending on the aerosol precursor. This study has also identified and quantified the multi-oxygenated organic compounds lost in the TEOM monitoring by using a method based on the gas chromatography-mass spectrometry technique. Important losses have been calculated for relevant ambient aerosol compounds such as pinonic acid, pinonaldehyde, norpinone and limonalic acid. In conclusion, the present study has demonstrated that a high operating temperature of the TEOM monitor reduces the humidity interference but underestimates the semi-volatile organic fraction.