A Sensitivity Analysis of an Integrated Modelling Approach to Assess the Risk of Wind-borne Spread of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus from Infected Premises

The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline, based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be factored into contingency plans.

汶川地震灾区过渡房安置点场地选择中的地震问题

大地震后,如何在最短的时间内在灾区选择比较安全的过渡房安置点建设场地,是一项具有挑战性的工作。本文以四川省汶川8.0级大地震后灾区群众快速安置为背景,论述了选择过渡房安置点场地必须考虑的地震问题,并提出了处理地震断层、地表裂缝、砂土液化、坍塌等实际问题的方案;利用强余震的预测结果,分析了这些灾害对场地可能造成的危害;同时对可能潜在的滑坡、危岩崩塌、泥石流等地质灾害提出相应的处理建议,供安置点规划建设参考。     

DDT in fish from the Bulgarian region of the Black Sea

In spite of a worldwide reduction in the utilization of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), they are still a problem for the aquatic environment and human health. The Black Sea is still being polluted with persistent chemicals, including OCPs. Aquatic organisms (sprat, scad, bluefish, shad, belted bonito, goby, and black mussel) with different feeding behaviours were sampled on a seasonal basis from the Bulgarian region of the Black Sea, and the concentrations of 13 OCP residues were determined. Although many of the OCPs were not detected in the samples, in all samples 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(4-chlorophenyl) ethane (DDT) was present mainly in the form of its metabolites 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(4-chlorophenyl) ethane (DDD) and 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(4-chlorophenyl) ethylene (DDE). Only about 12% of the total DDT was present as the parent compound pp-DDT, which suggests that it was not being used recently in the region. The total DDT concentrations were generally below 150 μg kg^-1 fresh weight, but higher levels—up to 354 μg kg^-1 fresh weight—were also measured for fish species with a high fat content. Between-species differences were observed, even when the concentrations were presented on a fat-level basis. DDT concentrations did not show any significant changes over the 2-yr sampling period. Fish sampled in the northern areas of the Bulgarian Black Sea coast seemed to contain higher DDT levels than those from the southern areas, suggesting a major (historical) influence of the Danube River. For permanent monitoring purposes, the utility of Black Sea gobies and scad should be considered.     

Estimates of animal methane emissions

The enteric methane emissions into the atmospheric annually from domestic animals total about 77 Tg. Another 10 to 14 Tg are likely released from animal manure disposal systems. About 95% of global animal enteric methane is from ruminants, a consequence of their large populations, body size and appetites combined with the extensive degree of anaerobic microbial fermentation occurring in their gut. Accurate methane estimates are particularly sensitive to cattle and buffalo census numbers and estimated diet consumption. Since consumption is largely unknown and must be predicted, accuracy is limited often by the information required, i.e., distribution of animals by class, weight and productivity. Fraction of the diet lost as enteric methane mostly falls into the range of 5.5–6.5% of gross energy intake for the world's cattle, sheep and goats. Manure methane emissions are heavily influenced by fraction of disposal by anaerobic lagoon. Non-ruminants, i.e., swine, become major contributors to these emissions.     

Pitfalls in molecular diagnosis in a family with severe factor VII (FVII) deficiency—misdiagnosis by direct sequence analysis using a PCR product

Molecular diagnostic tests are becoming a routine analysis in many laboratories. These modern analyses are widely used in clinical medicine, forensic, genetic and prenatal diagnosis and also in preimplantation genetic diagnosis. The accuracy of analysis is highly dependent on the success achieved in minimising genotyping errors. The pitfalls in molecular diagnostic tests can be due to a simple technique such as the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) used universally. This technique is routinely used for its apparent accuracy, but it is also a well-known source of errors. We report an error introduced during PCR reaction that leads to a wrong sequence result and consequently to a ‘false’ molecular result in a next prenatal diagnosis in a family with severe factor VII (FVII) deficiency. This error was verified using an unsuitable primer design in a rich repetitive sequence of the FVII gene that leads to a false annealing and then to a wrong molecular diagnosis. It is essential to link closely molecular data with clinical and phenotype analysis in order to avoid false-negative or false-positive results, which is of great importance to diagnosis and molecular prevention. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inhibitory effects of red algal extracts on larval settlement of the barnacle Balanus improvisus

We examined the chemical antifouling properties of four sublittoral red algae, Chondrus crispus, Delesseria sanguinea, Osmundea ramosissima, and Polyides rotundus, which are all rarely fouled in the field. Two different approaches were used. Firstly, we tested the effects of lipophilic crude extracts on the settlement behaviour of cyprid larvae of the co-existing barnacle Balanus improvisus. Secondly, in a settlement preference experiment, we tested whether B. improvisus cyprid larvae settle on living algae when given a choice between natural algal surfaces and control surfaces. With this procedure, we were able to test both if the algae inhibit recruitment of cyprids, and if this inhibition is a result of chemistry. The settlement of B. improvisus larvae was strongly inhibited at concentrations estimated to be potentially ecologically relevant for all of the tested extracts. However, only C. crispus significantly inhibited settlement in the preference experiment, even though there was also a tendency for settlement inhibition on P. rotundus and O. ramosissima. In contrast, D. sanguinea seemed to stimulate settlement. This contradiction probably resulted from an extraction of metabolites that naturally occur only inside the alga. However, as this study shows, a combination of settlement assays with whole-cell extracts and preference tests of ecologically relevant fouling organisms on natural algal and control surfaces may be a useful procedure to avoid erroneous conclusions regarding natural antifouling roles of compounds based on settlement assays with only whole-cell extracts. Furthermore, this study also shows that production of inhibitory metabolites may explain the low degree of fouling, especially by B. improvisus, on C. crispus.Communicated by L. Hagerman, Helsingør