Dissecting the tragedy: A spatial model of behavior in the commons

Much of the discussion of the tragedy of the commons focuses on aggregate impacts, often in data-poor developing country settings. Few non-experimental empirical studies shed light on contextual circumstances driving the extent of rent dissipation and overexploitation. We utilize a high-resolution data set to estimate a behavioral model of fishermen's spatial choices. A unique policy setting allows us to measure the degree to which individual fishermen's choices appear aimed at mitigating the tragedy of the commons in a small numbers setting. We find evidence of partial mitigation in excess of what we would expect under pure self-interest but short of what would occur under group-maximizing behavior. We also examine how contextual factors in the fishery shape the degree of cooperation within the fishing season and find evidence that competition for the common pool resource distorts fishermen's implicit cost of distance—creating a form of “common property inertia”.     

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate‐induced species’ movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species’ movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving‐window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species’ dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate‐change‐informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present‐day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate.     

Governing green stormwater infrastructure: the Philadelphia experience

Many cities throughout the world are adopting green infrastructure techniques to reduce stormwater and sewer overflows into waterways, which is particularly problematic for places experiencing more frequent and severe rain events. Governance of green stormwater implementation is proving to be as important as the techniques themselves. Building on the climate and sustainability governance literature, we argue that effective governance requires planning across city departments, experimentation and a strategy for organisational learning. We employ a case study of Philadelphia, the first city in the United States to attempt an entirely green approach to meeting federal regulations to examine issues of governance that emerged and how they were addressed. The case study draws on interviews with fourteen public and private sector actors involved in implementation, a site visit to observe the installations and to discuss the approach with a key planner, and grey literature. We find that silos can be broken down and that if open communications and a willingness to change practices are present, obstacles cited in the literature can be overcome. The key implication is that the three elements of governance need to be built into the green infrastructure planning process. While the analysis focuses on a US city, the departments involved and the governance needs of green stormwater infrastructure are similar in cities in much of the world.     

Quantification of ionophores in aged poultry litter using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry

Veterinary anticoccidials, biochemically known as ionophores, are widely used in poultry feed at therapeutic levels to treat Coccidiosis and at sub-therapeutic levels for growth- promotion. Commonly used ionophores in the US poultry industry are monensin, salinomycin, lasalocid and narasin. There is an increasing concern regarding the persistence of these anticoccidials in the environment. However, little attention has been directed to methods development for quantitatively measuring ionophores in complex environmental matrices such as poultry litters that are land applied. Here, we describe a rapid and sensitive liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS)-based method developed for simultaneous quantification of monensin, lasalocid, salinomycin, and narasin in aged poultry litter samples. Results show significant level of monensin (97.8 ± 3.2 μg kg^?1), lasalocid (19.2 ± 6.6 μg kg^?1), salinomycin (70 ± 2.7 μg kg^?1) and narasin (57.3 ± 2.6 μg kg^?1) in poultry litter stored for over three years at < 5°C. Our findings indicate that even after several years of unmanaged storage of poultry litter, ionophores may continue to persist in this matrix, raising the possibility of prolonged release into the environment.     

Ambient Air Quality at the Site of a Former Manufactured Gas Plant

Prior to the 1950's, manufactured gas was commerciallyproduced from the pyrolysis of coal, coke, and oil atfacilities that are termed manufactured gas plants (MGPs). The constituents of residual coal tar present on many MGPsites are an environmental health concern because of theirtoxicity and the possibility for their off-site migration viawater and air. Atmospheric concentrations of five volatileorganic compounds (VOCs, e.g., benzene), sixteen polycyclicaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs, e.g., naphthalene), and particulate matter less than 10 microns in aerodynamicdiameter (PM₁₀) were measured at the site of a former MGP. Air samples were obtained before, during, and after excavationof subterranean coal tar at the site. The results of thisinvestigation indicate that subterranean coal tar was not aprimary source of VOCs and PAHs in the local atmosphere beforeor after remediation of the site. However, excavation,treatment, blending, and transfer of the coal tar duringremediation generated concentrations of selected aromatic andsemi-volatile organic compounds that were substantiallygreater than typical ambient levels. In addition, these datasuggest that blending and mixing of coal tars could lead toexceedance of the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standardfor PM₁₀, although additional research is required to fullyevaluate this possibility. Nuisance odors associated with thesite remediation were likely the result of naphthalene andpossibly isomers of xylene. Air pollutant concentrationsmeasured adjacent to the excavation area and at the siteperimeter during remediation activities were less than therelevant occupational and environmental exposure limits.     

Mixing and transformation of Asian dust with pollution in the two dust storms over the northern China in 2006

To study the mixing and transformation of Asian dust with pollution in the two dust storms over the northern China in 2006, both TSP and PM_2.5 samples were collected at three sites of northern China in addition to the dry deposition samples collected in an episode in Beijing. 23 elements, 15 ions, and 16 PAHs in each sample were analyzed. The two dust storms in northern China were observed in April 8–10 (DS1) and April 16–18 (DS2). Compared to DS2, DS1 was weaker and more polluted with stronger mixing between crustal and pollutant aerosols during their long-range transport. The concentrations of pollution species, e.g. pollution elements, ions, and PAHs were higher in DS1 than that in DS2, while the crustal species showed adverse variation. The correlation between chemical species and Al and between PAH(4) and PAH(5,6) further confirmed the stronger chemical transformation and aerosol mixing in DS1 than that in DS2. Back trajectory and chemical analysis revealed that in DS1 the air masses at Beijing were mostly from southern or southwestern direction at lower altitude with much more pollution, while in DS2 the air masses were mostly from the northwestern and northern direction with dust mainly, which explained why there was a stronger mixing of dust with pollution aerosol in DS1 than that in DS2 over Beijing.     

Improving ozone modeling in complex terrain at a fine grid resolution – Part II: Influence of schemes in MM5 on daily maximum 8-h ozone concentrations and RRFs (Relative Reduction Factors) for SIPs in the non-attainment areas

Part II presents a comprehensive evaluation of CMAQ for August of 2002 on twenty-one sensitivity simulations (detailed in Part I) in MM5 to investigate the model performance for O₃ SIPs (State Implementation Plans) in the complex terrain. CMAQ performance was quite consistent with the results of MM5, meaning that accurate meteorological fields predicted in MM5 as an input resulted in good model performance of CMAQ. In this study, PBL scheme plays a more important role than its land surface models (LSMs) for the model performance of CMAQ. Our results have shown that the outputs of CMAQ on eighteen sensitivity simulations using two different nudging coefficients for winds (2.5 and 4.5 × 10^?4 s^?1, respectively) tend to under predict daily maximum 8-h ozone concentrations at valley areas except the TKE PBL sensitivity simulations (ETA M-Y PBL scheme with Noah LSMs and 5-layer soil model and Gayno-Seaman PBL) using 6.0 × 10^?4 s^?1 with positive MB (Mean Bias). At mountain areas, none of the sensitivity simulations has presented over predictions for 8-h O₃, due to relatively poor meteorological model performance. When comparing 12-km and 4-km grid resolutions for the PX simulation in CMAQ statistics analysis, the CMAQ results at 12-km grid resolution consistently show under predictions of 8-h O₃ at both of valley and mountain areas and particularly, it shows relatively poor model performance with a 15.1% of NMB (Normalized Mean Bias). Based on our sensitivity simulations, the TKE PBL sensitivity simulations using a maximum value (6 × 10^?4) among other sensitivity simulations yielded better model performance of CMAQ at all areas in the complex terrain. As a result, the sensitivity of RRFs to the PBL scheme may be considerably significant with about 1–3 ppb in difference in determining whether the attainment test is passed or failed. Furthermore, we found that the result of CMAQ model performance depending on meteorological variations is affected on estimating RRFs for attainment demonstration, indicating that it is necessary to improve model performance. Overall, G_c (Gayo-Seaman PBL scheme) using the coefficient for winds, 6 × 10^?4 s^?1, sensitivity simulation predicts daily maximum 8-h ozone concentration closer to observations during a typical summer period from May to September and provides generally low future design values (DVFs) at valley and mountain areas compared to other simulations.     

Using Topography to Meet Wildlife and Fuels Treatment Objectives in Fire-Suppressed Landscapes

Past forest management practices, fire suppression, and climate change are increasing the need to actively manage California Sierra Nevada forests for multiple environmental amenities. Here we present a relatively low-cost, repeatable method for spatially parsing the landscape to help the U.S. Forest Service manage for different forest and fuel conditions to meet multiple goals relating to sensitive species, fuels reduction, forest products, water, carbon storage, and ecosystem restoration. Using the Kings River area of the Sierra Nevada as a case study, we create areas of topographically-based units, Landscape Management Units (LMUs) using a three by three matrix (canyon, mid-slope, ridge-top and northerly, southerly, and neutral aspects). We describe their size, elevation, slope, aspect, and their difference in inherent wetness and solar radiation. We assess the predictive value and field applicability of LMUs by using existing data on stand conditions and two sensitive wildlife species. Stand conditions varied significantly between LMUs, with canyons consistently having the greatest stem and snag densities. Pacific fisher (Martes pennanti) activity points (from radio telemetry) and California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) nests, roosts, and sightings were both significantly different from uniform, with a disproportionate number of observations in canyons, and fewer than expected on ridge-tops. Given the distinct characteristics of the LMUs, these units provide a relatively simple but ecologically meaningful template for managers to spatially allocate forest treatments, thereby meeting multiple National Forest objectives. These LMUs provide a framework that can potentially be applied to other fire-dependent western forests with steep topographic relief.     

Climate Change Adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System

Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.