Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.     

Atmospheric Nutrient Input to the Baltic Sea from 1850 to 2006: A Reconstruction from Modeling Results and Historical Data

In this study, a consistent basin-wise monthly time series of the atmospheric nutrient load to the Baltic Sea during 1850-2006 was compiled. Due to the lack of a long time series (1850-1960) of nutrient deposition to the Baltic Sea, the data set was compiled by combining a time series of deposition data at the Baltic Nest Institute from 1970 to 2006, published historical monitoring data and deposition estimates, as well as recent modeled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission estimates. The procedure for nitrogen compounds included estimation of the deposition in a few intermediate reference years, linear interpolation between them, and the decomposition of annual deposition into a seasonal deposition pattern. As no reliable monitoring results were found for the atmospheric deposition of phosphorus during the early period of our study, we used published estimates for the temporal and spatial pattern of the phosphorus load.     

Reconstructing the Development of Baltic Sea Eutrophication 1850–2006

A comprehensive reconstruction of the Baltic Sea state from 1850 to 2006 is presented: driving forces are reconstructed and the evolution of the hydrography and biogeochemical cycles is simulated using the model BALTSEM. Driven by high resolution atmospheric forcing fields (HiResAFF), BALTSEM reproduces dynamics of salinity, temperature, and maximum ice extent. Nutrient loads have been increasing with a noteworthy acceleration from the 1950s until peak values around 1980 followed by a decrease continuing up to present. BALTSEM shows a delayed response to the massive load increase with most eutrophic conditions occurring only at the end of the simulation. This is accompanied by an intensification of the pelagic cycling driven by a shift from spring to summer primary production. The simulation indicates that no improvement in water quality of the Baltic Sea compared to its present state can be expected from the decrease in nutrient loads in recent decades.     

Occupational exposure to beryllium in primary aluminium production

Alumina used in the production of primary aluminium contains Be which partly vaporises from the cryolite bath into the workroom atmosphere. Since Be may be toxic at lower exposure levels than previously thought, the personal exposure to Be among workers in 7 Norwegian primary smelters has been assessed. In total, 480 personal Respicon? virtual impactor full shift air samples have been collected during 2 sampling campaigns and analysed for water soluble Be, Al and Na using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry. In addition, water soluble F(-) has been measured by ion chromatography. The Be air concentrations in the inhalable, thoracic and respirable aerosol fractions have been calculated. The Be concentrations in the inhalable aerosol fraction vary between the different smelters. The highest GM concentration of Be in the inhalable fraction (122 ng m(-3), n = 30) was measured in the prebake pot room of a smelter using predominantly Jamaican alumina where also the highest individual air concentration of 270 ng m(-3) of Be was identified. The relative distribution of Be in the different aerosol fractions was fairly constant with the mean Be amount for the two sampling campaigns between 44-49% in the thoracic fraction expressed as % of the inhalable amount. Linear regression analysis shows a high correlation between water soluble Be, Al, F and Na describing an average measured chemical bulk composition of the water soluble thoracic fraction as Na(5.7)Al(3.1)F(18). Be is likely to be present as traces in this particulate matter by replacing Al atoms in the condensed fluorides and/or as a major element in a nanoparticle sized fluoride. Thus, the major amount of Be present in the work room atmosphere of Al smelter pot rooms will predominantly be present in combination with substantial amounts of water soluble Al, F and Na.     

Towards a renewed research agenda in ecotoxicology

New concerns about biodiversity, ecosystem services and human health triggered several new regulations increasing the need for sound ecotoxicological risk assessment. The PEER network aims to share its view on the research issues that this challenges. PEER scientists call for an improved biologically relevant exposure assessment. They promote comprehensive effect assessment at several biological levels. Biological traits should be used for Environmental risk assessment (ERA) as promising tools to better understand relationships between structure and functioning of ecosystems. The use of modern high throughput methods could also enhance the amount of data for a better risk assessment. Improved models coping with multiple stressors or biological levels are necessary to answer for a more scientifically based risk assessment. Those methods must be embedded within life cycle analysis or economical models for efficient regulations. Joint research programmes involving humanities with ecological sciences should be developed for a sound risk management.     

Manipulation of snow in small headwater catchments at Storgama, Norway: effects on leaching of total organic carbon and total organic nitrogen

Projected increases in winter temperature due to future climate change may cause decreased snow accumulation at lower and intermediate altitudes in northern temperate regions. The resulting changes in soil temperature and water regime may affect the leaching of total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON). We manipulated the snow cover of small headwater catchments in a montane heathland area of southern Norway to quantify its effect on concentrations and fluxes of TOC and TON in runoff. Manipulations included snow removal, to promote soil frost, and insulation, to prevent soil frost. Snow removal resulted in increased TOC and TON concentrations, but decreased fluxes. Insulation caused a slight decrease in concentrations and fluxes of TOC. Our experiments show that a change in snow depth, and thus soil temperature, is not likely to have serious effects on TOC and TON leaching in the montane heathland area studied.     

A Comparison of Data Sets Varying in Spatial Accuracy Used to Predict the Occurrence of Wildlife-Vehicle Collisions

Wildlife-vehicle collisions (WVCs) pose a significant safety and conservation concern in areas where high-traffic roads are situated adjacent to wildlife habitat. Improving transportation safety, accurately planning highway mitigation, and identifying key habitat linkage areas may all depend on the quality of WVC data collection. Two common approaches to describe the location of WVCs are spatially accurate data derived from global positioning systems (GPS) or vehicle odometer measurements and less accurate road-marker data derived from reference points (e.g., mile-markers or landmarks) along the roadside. In addition, there are two common variable types used to predict WVC locations: (1) field-derived, site-specific measurements and (2) geographic information system (GIS)-derived information. It is unclear whether these different approaches produce similar results when attempting to identify and explain the location of WVCs. Our first objective was to determine and compare the spatial error found in road-marker data (in our case the closest mile-marker) and landmark-referenced data. Our second objective was to evaluate the performance of models explaining high- and low-probability WVC locations, using congruent, spatially accurate (<3-m) and road-marker (<800-m) response variables in combination with field- and GIS-derived explanatory variables. Our WVC data sets were comprised of ungulate collisions and were located along five major roads in the central Canadian Rocky Mountains. We found that spatial error (mean ± SD) was higher for WVC data referenced to nearby landmarks (516 ± 808 m) than for data referenced to the closest mile-marker data (401 ± 219 m). The top-performing model using the spatially accurate WVC locations contained all explanatory variable types, whereas GIS-derived variables were only influential in the best road-marker model and the spatially accurate reduced model. Our study showed that spatial error and sample size, using road-marker data for ungulate species, are important to consider for model output interpretation, which will impact the appropriate scale on which to apply modeling results. Using road-marker references <1.6 km or GPS-derived data locations may represent an optimal compromise between data acquisition costs and analytical performance. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Intake fraction distributions for benzene from vehicles in the Helsinki metropolitan area

The intake fraction (iF) gives a measure of the portion of a source's emissions that is inhaled by an exposed population over a defined period of time. This study examines spatial and population-based iF distributions of a known human carcinogen, benzene, from a ubiquitous urban source, local vehicular traffic, in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area using three computational methods. The first method uses the EXPAND model (EXPosure to Air pollution, especially to Nitrogen Dioxide and particulate matter), which incorporates spatial and temporal information on population activity patterns as well as urban-scale and street canyon dispersion models to predict spatial population exposure distributions. The second method uses data from the personal monitoring study EXPOLIS (Air Pollution Exposure Distributions of Adult Urban Populations in Europe) to estimate the intake fractions for individuals in the study. The third method, a one-compartment box model provides estimates within an order-of-magnitude or better for non-reactive agents in an urban area. Population intake fractions are higher using the personal monitoring data method (median iF 30 per million, mean iF 39 per million) compared with the spatial model (annual mean iF 10 per million) and the box model (median iF 4 per million, mean iF 7 per million). In particular, this study presents detailed intake fraction distributions on several different levels (spatial, individual, and generic) for the same urban area.     

Manipulation of precipitation in small headwater catchments at Storgama, Norway: effects on leaching of organic carbon and nitrogen species

Projected changes in climate in Southern Norway include increases in summer and autumn precipitation. This may affect leaching of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from soils. Effects of experimentally added extra precipitation (10 mm week) during the growing season of 3 years (2004-2006) to small headwater catchments at Storgama (59 degrees 0'N, 550-600 m a.s.l.) on leaching of total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON) were assessed. Extra precipitation did not have a significant effect on average TOC and TON concentrations in runoff. Thus, fluxes of TOC and TON increased nearly proportionally with water fluxes. This suggests that a store of adsorbed and potentially mobile TOC and TON in catchment soils buffers the concentration of DOM in runoff. The size and dynamics of the pool of TOC and TON depends on the balance between production and leaching rates. Infrequent short droughts had only small effects on TOC and TON fluxes in runoff from the reference catchments.