Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.     

Incremental cost-effectiveness of incorporating oestriol evaluation in down syndrome screening programmes

As screening for Down syndrome becomes increasingly sophisticated, it is important to evaluate the newer technologies in terms of their cost-effectiveness. One recent addition to Down syndrome screening programmes is maternal serum unconjugated oestriol (uE₃), especially when used in conjunction with maternal serum α-fetoprotein and human chorionic gonadotropin. Using assumptions used in a California proposal to justify an expanded screening programme for Down syndrome, we calculated both the average and the incremental cost-effectiveness of adding uE₃. Using the base case assumptions, including an $8 fee for the uE₃, the incremental cost-effectiveness of adding uE₃ to the proposed California programme is $119 100 per case detected, a value that compares favourably with other Down syndrome screening programmes. The sensitivity analysis supports this conclusion over a wide range of assumptions. However, because of the uncertainty with some key data, it is still too early to fully support the inclusion of uE₃ in Down syndrome screening programmes.     

A Simulation of Temporal and Spatial Variations in Carbon at Landscape Level: A Case Study for Lake Abitibi Model Forest in Ontario,Canada

Using a case study of the Lake Abitibi Model Forest (LAMF), this study aims to assess the temporal and spatial variability in carbon storage during 1990–2000, and to present a comprehensive estimation of the carbon budget for LAMF's ecosystems. As well, it provided the information needed by local forest managers to develop ecological and carbon-based indicators and monitor the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Temporal and spatial carbon dynamics were simulated at the landscape level using ecosystem model TRIPLEX1.0 and Geographical Information System (GIS). The simulated net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon storage in forest biomass and soil were compared with field data and results from other studies for Canada's boreal forests. The results show that simulated NPP ranged from 3.26 to 3.34 tC ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the 1990s and was consistent with the range measured during the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Studies (BOREAS) in central Canada. Modeled NPP was also compared with the estimation from remote sensing data. The density of total above-and belowground biomass was 125.3, 111.8, and 106.5 tC ha⁻¹ for black spruce, trembling aspen, and jack pine in the LAMF ecosystem, respectively. The total carbon density of forested land was estimated at 154.4 tC ha⁻¹ with the proportion of 4:6 for total biomass and soil. The analysis of net carbon balance of ecosystem suggested that the LAMF forest ecosystem was acting as a carbon sink with an allowable harvest in the 1990s.     

Cells of the connective tissue differentiate and migrate into pollen sacs

In angiosperms, archesporial cells in the anther primordium undergo meiosis to form haploid pollen, the sole occupants of anther sacs. Anther sacs are held together by a matrix of parenchyma cells, the connective tissue. Cells of the connective tissue are not known to differentiate. We report the differentiation of parenchyma cells in the connective tissue of two Gordonia species into pollen-like structures (described as pseudopollen), which migrate into the anther sacs before dehiscence. Pollen and pseudopollen were distinguishable by morphology and staining. Pollen were tricolpate to spherical while pseudopollen were less rigid and transparent with a ribbed surface. Both types were different in size, shape, staining and surface architecture. The ratio of the number of pseudopollen to pollen was 1:3. During ontogeny in the connective tissue, neither cell division nor tetrad formation was observed and hence pseudopollen were presumed to be diploid. Only normal pollen germinated on a germination medium. Fixed preparations in time seemed to indicate that pseudopollen migrate from the connective tissue into the anther sac.     

Red legs and golden gasters: Batesian mimicry in australian ants

 There are numerous reports of invertebrates that are visual mimics of ants, but no formal reports of mimicry of an ant, by an ant. Two endemic Australian ants, Myrmecia fulvipes and Camponotus bendigensis are remarkably similar in colour and size; both are generally black but have red legs and golden gasters. The density and hue of the pubescence of each ant's gaster are relatively uncommon in ants, but are very rare when combined with the black forebody and red legs. The ants are similarly sized but are smaller than other species closely related to M. fulvipes. The range of C. bendigensis lies entirely within that of M. fulvipes, and both species excavate ground nests in open woodland. Finally, workers of both species are crepuscular and forage solitarily. These data suggest that the relatively benign formicine C. bendigensis is a Batesian mimic of the formidable myrmeciine M. fulvipes. Received: 9 August 1999 / Accepted in revised form: 22 December 1999     

Predatory spider mimics acquire colony-specific cuticular hydrocarbons from their ant model prey

The integrity of social insect colonies is maintained by members recognising and responding to the chemical cues present on the cuticle of any intruder. Nevertheless, myrmecophiles use chemical mimicry to gain access to these nests, and their mimetic signals may be acquired through biosynthesis or through contact with the hosts or their nest material. The cuticular hydrocarbon profile of the myrmecophilous salticid spider Cosmophasis bitaeniata closely resembles that of its host ant Oecophylla smaragdina. Here, we show that the chemical resemblance of the spider does not arise through physical contact with the adult ants, but instead the spider acquires the cuticular hydrocarbons by eating the ant larvae. More significantly, we show that the variation in the cuticular hydrocarbon profiles of the spider depends upon the colony of origin of the ant larvae prey, rather than the parentage of the spider.     

The functionality of female reciprocal calls in the Iberian midwife toad (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Alytes cisternasii</Emphasis>): female-female acoustic competition?

Female midwife toads (genus Alytes) emit highly variable reciprocal calls of unclear function prior to and during courtship. In some species, female-female competition, expressed as physical fighting, has been reported. Males of Majorcan midwife toads (Alytes muletensis) show phonotactic response to female calls, and females of Iberian midwife toads (Alytes cisternasii) respond differently according to the male call characteristics. In this study, I test the hypothesis of female-female acoustic competition as an additional function of female reciprocal calls. Playback tests indicate that female calls are not clearly involved in female acoustic competition in the Iberian midwife toad, therefore female calls could be directed at males rather than towards competitive females.     

1998年厄尔尼诺后珊瑚礁的侵蚀与恢复:印度洋查戈斯礁群

在印度洋中部查戈斯礁群的大多数珊瑚死亡之后3年,对30m水深以浅珊瑚的侵蚀和恢复情况进行了研究.北部环礁15m水深以浅、中部和南部环礁＞35m处的珊瑚差不多全部死亡.由于密集珊瑚丛的损失,一些礁体"表面"下降了1 5m.珊瑚的生物侵蚀情况严重,减少了三维礁体"结构"并形成松散的碎石.幼年珊瑚数量众多,尽管大部分是在侵蚀的或不稳定的基底上,并且稳定种较少.在15m的深度,礁体间鱼类丰度和多样性仍旧较高;依赖于珊瑚生存的物种减少,而一些食草动物和食碎屑动物则增加.一个新的海面温度(SST)数据集表明,平均SST自1950年以来升高了0.65℃.造成查戈斯珊瑚礁死亡的临界SST是29.9℃.