Estimating trend precision and power to detect trends across grouped count data

Ecologists commonly use grouped or clustered count data to estimate temporal trends in counts, abundance indices, or abundance. For example, the U.S. Breeding Bird Survey data represent multiple counts of birds from within each of multiple, spatially defined routes. Despite a reliance on grouped counts, analytical methods for prospectively estimating precision of trend estimates or statistical power to detect trends that explicitly acknowledge the characteristics of grouped count data are undescribed. These characteristics include the fact that the sampling variance is an increasing function of the mean, and that sampling and group-level variance estimates are generally estimated on different scales (the sampling and log scales, respectively). We address these issues for repeated sampling of a single population using an analytical approach that has the flavor of a generalized linear mixed model, specifically that of a negative binomial-distributed count variable with random group effects. The count mean, including grand intercept, trend, and random group effects, is modeled linearly on the log scale, while sampling variance of the mean is estimated on the log scale via the delta method. Results compared favorably with those derived using Monte Carlo simulations. For example, at trend = 5% per temporal unit, differences in standard errors and in power were modest relative to those estimated by simulation (< or = /11/% and < or = /16/%, respectively), with relative differences among power estimates decreasing to < or = /7/% when power estimated by simulations was > or = 0.50. Similar findings were obtained using data from nine surveys of fingernail clams in the Mississippi River. The proposed method is suggested (1) where simulations are not practical and relative precision or power is desired, or (2) when multiple precision or power calculations are required and where the accuracy of a fraction of those calculations will be confirmed using simulations.     

Agronomic adaptation strategies under climate change for winter durum wheat and tomato in southern Italy: irrigation and nitrogen fertilization

Agricultural crops are affected by climate change due to the relationship between crop development, growth, yield, CO₂ atmospheric concentration and climate conditions. In particular, the further reduction in existing limited water resources combined with an increase in temperature may result in higher impacts on agricultural crops in the Mediterranean area than in other regions. In this study, the cropping system models CERES-Wheat and CROPGRO-Tomato of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) were used to analyse the response of winter durum wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) crops to climate change, irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer managements in one of most productive areas of Italy (i.e. Capitanata, Puglia). For this analysis, three climatic datasets were used: (1) a single dataset (50?km?×?50?km) provided by the JRC European centre for the period 1975–2005; two datasets from HadCM3 for the IPCC A2 GHG scenario for time slices with +2°C (centred over 2030–2060) and +5°C (centred over 2070–2099), respectively. All three datasets were used to generate synthetic climate series using a weather simulator (model LARS-WG). Adaptation strategies, such as irrigation and N fertilizer managements, have been investigated to either avoid or at least reduce the negative impacts induced by climate change impacts for both crops. Warmer temperatures were primarily shown to accelerate wheat and tomato phenology, thereby resulting in decreased total dry matter accumulation for both tomato and wheat under the +5°C future climate scenario. Under the +2°C scenario, dry matter accumulation and resulting yield were also reduced for tomato, whereas no negative yield effects were observed for winter durum wheat. In general, limiting the global mean temperature change of 2°C, the application of adaptation strategies (irrigation and nitrogen fertilization) showed a positive effect in minimizing the negative impacts of climate change on productivity of tomato cultivated in southern Italy.     

Increasingly warm summers in the Euro–Mediterranean zone: mean temperatures and extremes

The recent increase in European temperatures led to a strong enhancement in the occurrence of extremely warm events, with relevant consequences for environment and everyday life. Here, we investigate the evolution of very intense warm and cold events in a south-western European zone during 1961–2007 at a seasonal level. Special attention is given to summertime when warming is the most pronounced. Using a previously developed theoretical model, we discuss how the average properties and long-term trends observed in probability density functions of daily temperatures can explain changes in the frequency of severe, isolated events. In this perspective, the recent intensification of extremely warm events, especially experienced by the Mediterranean zone, is proved to be well consistent with a pure shift of seasonal mean temperatures. On the other hand, any change in the second and higher distributional moments of daily temperatures is ruled out by the data, whereas the average values of these properties, that is, variability and asymmetry, do play a role by shaping the temporal behavior of very intense events.     

Environmental and lifestyle factors affect benzene uptake biomonitoring of residents near a petrochemical plant

Background

We monitored urinary benzene excretion to examine factors affecting benzene uptake in a sample of the general population living near a petrochemical plant.

Methods

Our study population included 143 subjects: 33 petrochemical plant workers (W) with low level occupational benzene exposure; 30 residents in a small town 2 km from the plant (2kmR); 26 residents in a second small town located 2 to 4 km from the plant (4kmR); and 54 urban residents 25 km from the plant (25kmR). Exposure to benzene was evaluated by personal air sampling during one work-shift for the W group, and from 8.00 to 20:00 for general population subgroups, and by urinary benzene (BEN-U).

Results

Median airborne benzene exposure was 25, 9, 7 and 6 μg/m³ benzene among the W, 2kmR, 4kmR, and 25kmR subgroups, respectively; the highest level was found among the workers, while there was no significant difference among the other groups. Median BEN-U was 2 to 14-fold higher in smokers compared to non-smokers; among non-smokers BEN-U was the highest in W (median 236 ng/L), and lower in the 2kmR (48 ng/L) and 4kmR (63 ng/L) subgroups than in the 25kmR (120 ng/L) subgroup. A multiple linear regression analysis, explaining up to 73% of BEN-U variability, confirmed that active smoking and airborne benzene most strongly affected BEN-U. Among the non-smoking, non-occupationally exposed study subjects, a positive association was found between BEN-U and the distance of residence from the plant. This association was explained by increased exposure to urban traffic emissions in the study group residing at a greater distance from the plant. Environmental tobacco smoke had a marginally positive role.

Conclusion

Among factors affecting benzene uptake in non-occupationally exposed individuals, urban residence contributes to benzene exposure more than residing in close proximity to a petrochemical plant.     

In situ measures of foraging success and prey encounter reveal marine habitat-dependent search strategies

Predators are thought to reduce travel speed and increase turning rate in areas where resources are relatively more abundant, a behavior termed "area-restricted search." However, evidence for this is rare, and few empirical data exist for large predators. Animals exhibiting foraging site fidelity could also be spatially aware of suitable feeding areas based on prior experience; changes in movement patterns might therefore arise from the anticipation of higher prey density. We tested the hypothesis that regions of area-restricted search were associated with a higher number of daily speed spikes (a proxy for potential prey encounter rate) and foraging success in southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina), a species exhibiting both area-restricted searches and high interannual foraging site fidelity. We used onshore morphological measurements and diving data from archival tags deployed during winter foraging trips. Foraging success was inferred from in situ changes in relative lipid content derived from measured changes in buoyancy, and first-passage time analysis was used to identify area-restricted search behavior. Seals exhibited relatively direct southerly movement on average, with intensive search behavior predominantly located at the distal end of tracks. The probability of being in search mode was positively related to changes in relative lipid content; thus, intensively searched areas were associated with the highest foraging success. However, there was high foraging success during the outward transit even though seals moved through quickly without slowing down and increasing turning rate to exploit these areas. In addition, the probability of being in search mode was negatively related to the number of daily speed spikes. These results suggest that movement patterns represent a response to prior expectation of the location of predictable and profitable resources. Shelf habitat was 4-9 times more profitable than the other habitats, emphasizing the importance of the East Antarctic shelf for this and other predators in the region. We have provided rare empirical data with which to investigate the relationship between predator foraging strategy and prey encounter/ foraging success, underlining the importance of inferring the timing and spatial arrangement of successful food acquisition for interpreting foraging strategies correctly.     

Ecology of hemiepiphytism in fig species is based on evolutionary correlation of hydraulics and carbon economy

Woody hemiepiphytic species (Hs) are important components of tropical rain forests, and they have been hypothesized to differ from non-hemiepiphytic tree species (NHs) in adaptations relating to water relations and carbon economy; but few studies have been conducted comparing ecophysiological traits between the two growth forms especially in an evolutionary context. Using common-garden plants of the genus Ficus, functional traits related to plant hydraulics and carbon economy were compared for seven NHs and seven Hs in their adult terrestrial "tree-like" growth phase. We used phylogenetically independent contrasts to test the hypothesis that differences in water availability selected for contrasting suites of traits in Hs and NHs, driving evolutionary correlations among functional traits including hydraulic conductivity and photosynthetic traits. Species of the two growth forms differed in functional traits; Hs had substantially lower xylem hydraulic conductivity and stomatal conductance, and higher instantaneous photosynthetic water use efficiency. Leaf morphological and structural traits also differed strikingly between the two growth forms. The Hs had significantly smaller leaves, higher leaf mass per area (LMA), and smaller xylem vessel lumen diameters. Across all the species, hydraulic conductivity was positively correlated with leaf gas exchange indicating high degrees of hydraulic-photosynthetic coordination. More importantly, these correlations were supported by correlations implemented on phylogenetic independent contrasts, suggesting that most trait correlations arose through repeated convergent evolution rather than as a result of chance events in the deep nodes of the lineage. Vatiation in xylem hydraulic conductivity was also centrally associated with a suite of other functional traits related to carbon economy and growth, such as LMA, water use efficiency, leaf nutrient concentration, and photosynthetic nutrient use efficiency, indicating important physiological constraints or trade-offs among functional traits. Shifts in this trait cluster apparently related to the adaptation to drought-prone canopy growth during the early life cycle of Hs and clearly affected ecophysiology of the later terrestrial stage of these species. Evolutionary flexibility in hydraulics and associated traits might be one basis for the hyper-diversification of Ficus species in tropical rain forests.     

Global Warming, Uncertainty and Endogenous Technical Change

What impact does ecological uncertainty have on agents' decisions concerning domestic emissions abatement, physical investments, and R&;D expenditures? How sensitive are the answers to these questions when we move from exogenous to endogenous technical change? To investigate these issues we modify the ETC-RICE model described in Buonanno et al. (2001) by embedding in it a hazard rate function as in Bosello and Moretto (1999). With this model at hand we run numerical optimisations focusing our attention on the control variables of the representative agents, i.e., domestic abatement rate, investments in physical capital, and R&;D spending, as well as on the endogenous patterns of GDP level and CO₂ emissions. Our results show that uncertainty strongly influences agents behaviour; in particular, agents slow down their emissions in order to maintain a more sustainable growth path. In addition, R&;D expenditures trigger the “engine of growth” exclusively when environmental technical change is formalized in an endogenous fashion. However, even if environmental uncertainty may stimulate technical change, long-run growth it turns out to be negatively affected by the former, as also predicted by Clarke and Reed (1994) Tsur and Zemel (1996) and Bosello and Moretto (1999).     

Quantification of Human Adenoviruses in European Recreational Waters

The presence of human adenoviruses (HAdV) in recreational water might cause disease in the population upon exposure. HAdV detected by PCR could also serve as indicators of the virological water quality. In order to assess the applicability of HAdV to the evaluation of the faecal contamination in European bathing waters, a real-time quantitative PCR assay was used for the quantification of HAdV in 132 samples collected from 24 different recreational marine and freshwater sites in nine European countries. Selected samples presenting positive nested PCR results for HAdV were analyzed using quantitative PCR and 80 samples from a total of 132 produced quantitative results with mean values of 3.2 × 10² per 100 ml of water, being human adenovirus 41 the most prevalent serotype between the samples where adenovirus was typified. HAdV were quantified in samples from all 15 surveillance laboratories. Statistical analysis showed no homogeneous linear relation between HAdV and E. coli, intestinal enterococci or somatic coliphages concentrations in the tested samples when considering all the data together. Significant correlations between HAdV and at least one of the other indicators were observed only when data from individual laboratories were considered. The quantification of HAdV may provide complementary information in relation to the use of bacterial standards in the control of water quality in bathing water.