Reconciling multiple counterfactuals when evaluating biodiversity conservation impact in social-ecological systems

When evaluating the impact of a biodiversity conservation intervention, a counterfactual is typically needed. Counterfactuals are possible alternative system trajectories in the absence of an intervention. Comparing observed outcomes against the chosen counterfactual allows the impact (change attributable to the intervention) to be determined. Because counterfactuals by definition never occur, they must be estimated. Sometimes, there may be many plausible counterfactuals, including various drivers of biodiversity change and defined on a range of spatial or temporal scales. Here, we posit that, by definition, conservation interventions always take place in social-ecological systems (SES) (i.e., ecological systems integrated with human actors). Evaluating the impact of an intervention in an SES, therefore, means taking into account the counterfactuals assumed by different human actors. Use of different counterfactuals by different actors will give rise to perceived differences in the impacts of interventions, which may lead to disagreement about its success or the effectiveness of the underlying approach. Despite that there are biophysical biodiversity trends, it is often true that no single counterfactual is definitively the right one for conservation assessment, so multiple evaluations of intervention efficacy could be considered justifiable. Therefore, we propose calculating the sum of perceived differences, which captures the range of impact estimates associated with different actors in a given SES. The sum of perceived differences gives some indication of how closely actors in an SES agree on the impacts of an intervention. We applied the concept of perceived differences to a set of global, national, and regional case studies (e.g., global realization of Aichi Target 11 for marine protected areas, effect of biodiversity offsetting on vegetation condition in Australia, and influence of conservation measures on an endangered ungulate in Central Asia). We explored approaches for minimizing the sum, including a combination of negotiation and structured decision making, careful alignment of expectations on scope and measurement, and explicit recognition of any intractable differences between stakeholders.     

Defining behavioural syndromes and the role of ‘syndrome deviation’ in understanding their evolution

This commentary highlights multivariate tools that have been used by evolutionary biologists in the study of syndromes and their evolution and discusses the insights that these methods provide into evolutionary processes relative to the metric ‘syndrome deviation’ that has recently been proposed by Herczeg and Garamszegi (Behav Ecol Sociobiol 66:161–169, 2012). We clarify that non-zero phenotypic correlations arise from the joint influences of within- and between-individual correlations, whereas only non-zero between-individual correlations represent behavioural syndromes, and discuss how acknowledgement of this subtle difference between phenotypic and between-individual correlations affects the applicability of syndrome deviation for the study of behavioural syndromes.     

Temporal trends of lipophilic persistent organic pollutants in serum from Danish nulliparous pregnant women 2011–2013

The use of the lipophilic persistent organic pollutants (POPs) including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and several organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) has been prohibited for more than 30 years. In this study, we present the temporal trends of the lipophilic POP serum concentrations in Danish nulliparous pregnant women between 2011 and 2013. We randomly selected 197 pregnant women (gestational age 11–13) from the Aarhus Birth Cohort. The concentrations of the lipophilic POPs in the serum samples were analyzed using gas chromatography. The concentrations were corrected for total serum lipids. The statistical analysis was performed by regression analysis with adjustment for age, BMI, gestational age at blood draw, and smoking status. The serum concentrations of PCB 118, 138, 153, 156, 170, 180, 187, and hexachlorobenzen, trans-nonachlor, β-hexachlorocyclohexane (β-HCH), and p,p’-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene were lower in 2013 than in 2011. However, the oxychlordane concentration was lowest in 2011. The serum levels of most lipophilic POPs followed downward trends during the study period, which was expected, as these compounds has been banned for many years. The upward trend of oxychlordane was unexpected and presumably a chance finding.     

Estimation of Soil Carbon Gains Upon Improved Management within Croplands and Grasslands of Africa

Many agro(eco)systems in Africa have been degraded as a result of past disturbances, including deforestation, overgrazing, and over exploitation. These systems can be managed to reduce carbon emissions and increase carbon sinks in vegetation and soil. The scope for soil organic carbon gains from improved management and restoration within degraded and non-degraded croplands and grasslands in Africa is estimated at 20–43 Tg C year^?1, assuming that 'best' management practices can be introduced on 20% of croplands and 10% of grasslands. Under the assumption that new steady state levels will be reached after 25 years of sustained management, this would correspond with a mitigation potential of 4–9% of annual CO₂ emissions in Africa. The mechanisms that are being put in place to implement the Kyoto Protocol - through C emission trading - and prevailing agricultural policies will largely determine whether farmers can engage in activities that enhance C sequestration in Africa. Mitigation of climate change by increased carbon sequestration in the soil appears particularly useful when addressed in combination with other pressing regional challenges that affect the livelihood of the people, such as combating land degradation and ensuring food security, while at the same time curtailing global anthropogenic emissions.     

Evasive response to ultrasound by the crepuscular butterfly<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Manataria maculata</Emphasis>

The crepuscular nymphalid butterfly Manataria maculata was studied in Monteverde cloud forest, Costa Rica, during the dry season reproductive diapause. M. maculata has ears in the form of Vogel's organs located near the base of the forewings. Its behaviour in response to bursts of ultrasonic pulses (26 kHz, 110 dB SPL at 1 m) was condition-dependent. At dusk and dawn the sound consistently elicited evasive responses, similar to those of moths, in flying individuals. In contrast day-roosting individuals always remained motionless although they were alert to other stimuli. The daily movements between day- and night-roosts coincided in time and light intensity with the activity of insectivorous bats. This is the first reported case of ultrasonic hearing connected to evasive flights in a true butterfly (Papilionoidea). It strongly supports the idea that echolocating bats were involved in the evolution of hearing in butterflies.     

Algal tests with soil suspensions and elutriates: a comparative evaluation for PAH-contaminated soils

An algal growth inhibition test procedure with soil suspensions is proposed and evaluated for PAH-contaminated soil. The growth rate reduction of the standard freshwater green alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata (formerly known as Selenastrum capricornutum) was used as the toxicity endpoint, and was quantified by measuring the fluorescence of solvent-extracted algal pigments. No growth rate reduction was detected for soil contents up to 20 g/l testing five non-contaminated Danish soils. Comparative testing with PAH-contaminated soil elutriates and soil suspensions showed that the suspensions had toxicity endpoints 2.5-3000 times lower than tests with the corresponding elutriates. Algal growth inhibition tests with soil suspensions are recommended for screening purposes as a supplement to elutriate testing. Experiments with a phenanthrene-spiked soil, showed that the sorbed compound did not contribute to the toxicity. However, the soil did act as a reservoir for phenanthrene, allowing desorption to occur continuously during the algal test which maintained higher concentrations of phenanthrene in the dissolved phase. Phenanthrene-spiked soil incubated for 90 days before algal testing, resulted in a reduction of the toxicity to P. subcapitata by a factor of 76 (from EC10 = 0.3 to 23.6 g soil/l). However, during this 90-day period the total concentration of phenanthrene in the soil decreased by 38% (from 322 to 199 mg/kg) indicating that phenanthrene in the aged soil had become less bioavailable.     

Enrichment of <Superscript>15</Superscript>N/<Superscript>14</Superscript>N in wastewater-derived effluent varies with operational performance of treatment systems: implications for isotope monitoring in receiving environments

Stable nitrogen isotope ratios are routinely used to trace the dispersion and assimilation of wastewater-derived N in receiving environments, but few isotope studies have investigated wastewater treatment plants and ponds themselves. An improved understanding of N isotope compositions in effluent will help assess treatment plant processes and performance and will help trace sources of excess nutrients in receiving environments. Here, we assess N budgets and treatment processes in seven wastewater treatment plants and wastewater stabilisation ponds in northern Australia based on concentrations and isotope ratios of N in effluent. We show that δ¹⁵N values in effluent are linked to treatment type, effectiveness of conversion of ammonia and levels of gaseous N emissions. These relationships suggest that N isotope monitoring of wastewater treatment plants and ponds can provide an integrated assessment of treatment performance and gaseous N emissions on a pond- or plant-wide scale that is not readily available through other methods. Our findings further imply that monitoring N isotope ratios in receiving environments cannot be assumed to be universally effective as their sensitivity to uptake of wastewater-derived N will vary with the characteristics of individual treatment systems. Paradoxically, N isotope monitoring is less effective where treatment systems are functioning poorly and where monitoring needs are the greatest.     

Mass flows of endocrine disruptors in the Glatt River during varying weather conditions

This study focused on the occurrence and behaviour in wastewater and surface waters of several phenolic endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) including parabens, alkylphenolic compounds, phenylphenol (PhP) and bisphenol A (BPA). Analytical procedures using solid-phase-extraction and LC-MS/MS techniques were applied to samples of influents and effluents of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) discharging into the Glatt River (Switzerland) as well as to river water samples. A mass flow analysis provided insight into the main sources and the fate of these contaminants during different weather conditions. Concentrations in influents were in the low μg/L range for most analytes. Removal of parabens in the WWTPs was mostly above 99%. Nonylphenol polyethoxylates (A₉PEO) removal amounted to 98%, but in some cases nonylphenoxy acetic acid (A₉PEC) or nonylphenols (NP) were formed. In effluents, concentrations were highest for the A₉PEC, A₉PEO and NP. Concentrations in river water were in the high ng/L range for alkylphenolic compounds and in the low ng/L range for BPA, PhP and the parabens. During the sampling period, in which several rain events occurred, both water flows and mass flows varied strongly. Mass flows in WWTP effluents and in the river increased with increasing water flows for most compounds indicating that higher water flows do not lead necessarily to a proportional dilution of the pollutants. Throughout the low water flow period, mass flows predicted from the known inputs were similar to the actual mass flows at the end of the river for most analytes. For none of the EDCs, significant in-stream removal could be observed. In the periods with high water flows, mass flows in the river were much higher than can be explained by the initially defined sources. Discharge of untreated wastewater influent into the river was assessed as an additional source. Adding this source improved the mass balance for some, but not all of the analytes.