Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis

Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of ‘Continental Europe’. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50–100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40–50 %). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50 % of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence among the four scenarios. Our findings suggest targeted policies depending on habitat and species group. These are, for dry grasslands, to reduce land use change or its effects and to enhance connectivity, and for wetlands to mitigate climate change effects.     

Costs and benefits of urban erosion and sediment control: The North Carolina experience

The EPA’s new nonpoint source pollution control requirements will soon institutionalize urban erosion and sediment pollution control practices nationwide. The public and private sector costs and social benefits associated with North Carolina’s program (one of the strongest programs in the country in terms of implementation authority, staffing levels, and comprehensiveness of coverage) are examined to provide general policy guidance on questions relating to the likely burden the new best management practices will have on the development industry, the likely costs and benefits of such a program, and the feasibility of running a program on a cost recovery basis. We found that urban erosion and sediment control requirements were not particularly burdensome to the development industry (adding about 4% on average to development costs). Public-sector program costs ranged between $2.4 and $4.8 million in fiscal year 1989. Our contingent valuation survey suggests that urban households in North Carolina are willing to pay somewhere between $7.1 and $14.2 million a year to maintain current levels of sediment pollution control. Our benefit-cost analysis suggests that the overall ratio is likely to be positive, although a definitive figure is elusive. Lastly, we found that several North Carolina localities have cost recovery fee systems that are at least partially self-financing. This article is based on research by the authors for the North Carolina Department of Environment, Health and Natural Resources (DEHNR). The views are those of the research team and do not necessarily reflect the position of DEHNR.     

Effects of air filtration at small SO2 and NO2 concentrations on the yield of barley

Two cultivars of Igri and Gerbel winter barley Horteum vulgare L. were grown in open-top chambers in filtered and unfiltered air at a site with approximately 10 nl litre(-1) SO2 and 12 nl litre(-1) NO2 (seasonal mean). The experiment ran for three consecutive seasons 1982-1983, 1983-1984, 1984-1985, and significant effects of filtration were observed for each crop. In years 1982-1983 and 1984-1985, the crops in unfiltered air yielded larger grain dry matter, 9% in 1982-1983, and 8% in 1984-1985. For both crops, the differences were statistically significant at the 5% level. Differences were also observed for the remaining above-ground dry matter, and these were consistent in direction in each year but statistically significant only in 1984-1985. In both growing seasons (1982-1983 and 1984-1985), there were no major pest infestations and no long-term water stress or photochemical ozone episodes. In the remaining experiment (1983-1984) similar air concentrations of SO2 and NO2 produced effects of the opposite sign to those observed in 1982-1983 and 1984-1985. Significant reductions in grain yield (13%) were obtained in unfiltered air. The only major environmental difference for the 1983-1984 crop was a notable dry period in May and June 1984 with marked water stress in the crop, requiring irrigation. These results suggest that the relationship between yield and pollutant concentration may be confounded by additional stresses, many of which are a common component of the growing season for major crops.     

Assessing source characteristics of PM2.5 in the eastern United States using positive matrix factorization

Fine aerosol (PM2.5) measurements obtained from the first year of operation of the nationwide network of PM2.5 monitors were studied with the factor analysis technique of positive matrix factorization (PMF). PM2.5 mass concentration data were extracted from the Atmospheric Information Retrieval System (AIRS) database of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). PMF was applied to measurements at more than 350 monitoring locations in the eastern half of the United States. Data consisted of PM2.5 24-hr averaged concentrations measured every third day from April through December 1999. The PMF model suggested six factors representing source influences to the PM2.5 mass concentrations at measurement sites. Factor 5, covering much of the Appalachian states, exhibited significant seasonal behavior.     

The impact of climate change on the soil/moisture regime of Scottish mineral soils

The likely impact of climate change on the moisture regime of Scottish soils and consequently on agriculture and land use has been addressed using a novel Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach. Current estimates of changes in summer precipitation by the year 2030 are 0% with an associated uncertainty of +/- 11%. This study considers the worst case scenario of a decrease in rainfall by 11% which will lead to some low rainfall areas experiencing an increased drought risk, particularly on lighter soils. Wet areas with heavy soils could benefit from an increase in the accessibility period for machinery. As the major agricultural land in Scotland is located on the relatively dry east coast where localised problems due to drought are not uncommon even under the present climate, the detrimental effects of a decrease in rainfall for the whole of Scotland are therefore likely to outweigh the benefits. Approximately 8% of Scotland has been identified in this study as soil/climate combinations which will be susceptible to drought should summer rainfall decrease by 11% and summer temperature increase by 1.4 degrees C.     

Climate Hypocrisies: A Comparative Study of News Discourse

This paper conducts a comparative study of how the idea of hypocrisy was invoked in media coverage of climate change in 12 newspapers from four countries (Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) between 2005 and 2015. It develops the concepts, and explores the characteristics, of three distinct types of climate hypocrisy: personalized (which attacks the moral character of individuals based on inconsistencies between their stated beliefs and behavior); institutional-analytic (which identifies contradictions between institutional rhetoric and ongoing policies and practices); and reflexive (which develops sympathetic accounts of the struggles individuals face in reconciling the tension between values and actions). It explores how these types are used to undermine the credibility of climate advocates as well as to argue for more aggressive climate action, and maps out key features of climate hypocrisy discourse including ideological attributes, targeted actors and behaviors, affective intensity, and regional variations. It outlines a number of surprising key findings, such as (i) hypocrisy discourses are more frequently invoked by “progressives” supporting climate change action than by “conservatives” resisting climate change action, and (ii) while both groups use hypocrisy discourse, they tend to use very different types of hypocrisy discourses which each likely have very different impacts on climate change discourse.     

How do Europeans want to live in 2040? Citizen visions and their consequences for European land use

The aspirations, motivations and choices of individual European citizens are a major driver of the future of global, European and local land use. However, until now no land use study has explicitly attempted to find out how the general public wants to live in the future. This paper forms a first attempt to survey European citizens to understand their desired future lives in relation to consequences for European land use. We used a crowdsourcing experiment to elicit visions from young Europeans about their lives in 2040. Participants completed a graphic novel around carefully selected questions, allowing them to create a story of their imagined future lives in pictures. The methodology worked well, and the sample seemed reasonably representative albeit skewed towards an educated population. In total, 1131 responses from 29 countries were received. Results show a strong desire for change, and for more sustainable lifestyles. There is desire for local and ecologically friendly food production, to eat less meat, to have access to green infrastructure and the ability to cycle to work. However, international travel remains popular, and the desire for extensive food production and owning detached houses with gardens will likely result in complex land use trade-offs. Future work could focus more specifically on quantifying these trade-offs and inform respondents about the consequences of their lifestyle choices. This was a first attempt to use crowdsourcing to understand citizen visions for their lives in the future, and our lessons learned will help future studies improve representativeness and increase responses.

     

Food crop accumulation and bioavailability assessment for antimony (Sb) compared with arsenic (As) in contaminated soils

Field samples and a 9-week glasshouse growth trial were used to investigate the accumulation of mining derived arsenic (As) and antimony (Sb) in vegetable crops growing on the Macleay River Floodplain in Northern New South Wales, Australia. The soils were also extracted using EDTA to assess the potential for this extractant to be used as a predictor of As and Sb uptake in vegetables, and a simplified bioaccessibility extraction test (SBET) to understand potential for uptake in the human gut with soil ingestion. Metalloids were not detected in any field vegetables sampled. Antimony was not detected in the growth trial vegetable crops over the 9-week greenhouse trial. Arsenic accumulation in edible vegetable parts was <10 % total soil-borne As with concentrations less than the current Australian maximum residue concentration for cereals. The results indicate that risk of exposure through short-term vegetable crops is low. The data also demonstrate that uptake pathways for Sb and As in the vegetables were different with uptake strongly impacted by soil properties. A fraction of soil-borne metalloid was soluble in the different soils resulting in Sb soil solution concentration (10.75?±?0.52 μg L^–1) that could present concern for contamination of water resources. EDTA proved a poor predictor of As and Sb phytoavailability. Oral bioaccessibility, as measured by SBET, was <7 % for total As and <3 % total Sb which is important to consider when estimating the real risk from soil borne As and Sb in the floodplain environment.