Embedded large eddy simulation approach for pollutant dispersion around a model building in atmospheric boundary layer

In the present article, the potential of embedded large eddy simulation (ELES) approach to reliably predict pollutant dispersion around a model building in atmospheric boundary layer is assessed. The performance of ELES in comparison with large eddy simulation (LES) is evaluated in several ways. These include a number of qualitative and quantitative comparisons of time-averaged and instantaneous results with wind tunnel measurements supplemented by statistical data analyses using scatter plots and standard evaluation metrics. Results obtained by both LES and ELES approaches show very good agreement with the experiment. However, addition of turbulence to mean flow at Reynolds averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS)–LES interface in ELES approach not only increases the turbulence intensity, it also results in larger values of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) as well as a shorter reattachment length in the wake region. Accordingly, higher levels of TKE predicted by ELES increase the local intensity of concentration leading to shorter plume shapes as compared with LES. In general, ELES shows better agreement with experiment on the surfaces of model building and also in the downstream wake region. In terms of computational costs, the CPU time required to obtain statistical values in ELES is about 49 % lower than that of LES and the number of iterations per time step is also reduced by 55 % as compared with LES.     

Diffusional mass transfer coefficient at the water–sediment interface for wind-induced flow in very shallow lagoons

Very shallow lagoons that are a few centimeters deep are common in the arid Andes of Northern Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Perú. The dynamics of these lagoons are dominated by the water–sediment interface (WSI) and strong afternoon winds. Although many studies have examined the diffusional mass transfer coefficients (k _t ) of open channel flows, estimates for wind-induced flows are still unknown. The aim of this article is to propose and validate an analytical expression for computing k _t at the WSI for wind-induced flow. The laboratory measurements were conducted in a wind tunnel with a water tank of variable depth located at its downwind end. Natural muddy sediments were placed in the middle of the tank so that the dissolved oxygen (DO) was consumed in the sediments. The diffusional mass transfer coefficient that characterizes the DO uptake in the sediment was obtained from DO micro-profiles measured with an OX-25 Unisense microelectrode. Water velocity profiles were measured with a 2D side-view Sontek acoustic doppler velocimetry (ADV), and the wind shear velocity was computed based on wind velocity profiles that were measured with an Extech hot-wire anemometer. A total of 16 experiments were conducted with different water depths and wind shear stresses. The constants required by the model were determined from these experiments, and the analytical expression was successfully validated by the laboratory observations. The analytical expression obtained for computing k _t was also validated with field observations that were conducted in October, 2012, in Salar del Huasco, Northern Chile (20.274° S, 68.883° W, 3800 m above sea level). The comparison between the observed and predicted values of k _t provides a determination coefficient of r ² = 0.48 and a p value < 0.01. The results show that the value of k _t for wind-induced flow is proportional to the wind shear velocity and the inverse of the Reynolds number of the wind-induced current.     

A numerical study of hypothetical storm surge and coastal inundation for AILA cyclone in the Bay of Bengal

The head Bay region bordering the Bay of Bengal is highly vulnerable to tropical cyclones. Catastrophic risks from storm surge and associated inundation are quite high due to high population density in coastal areas, socio-economic conditions, and shallow bathymetry. It features the world’s largest deltaic system comprising of ‘Sunderbans’ bordered by West Bengal and Bangladesh. In a geomorphologic sense, the head Bay region is a low-lying belt comprising several barrier islands and river drainage systems, numerous tidal creeks, and mud flats having a high risk for widespread inundation. In addition, the high tidal range together with low-lying topography leads to high risk and vulnerability from storm surge inundation. During May 2009, a severe cyclonic storm Aila struck West Bengal causing enormous destruction to life and property along coastal belts of West Bengal and Bangladesh. It was the strongest pre-monsoon cyclone in the past two decades that had landfall in West Bengal. This work reports on a numerical study for hypothetical storm surge and associated inundation from Aila using the ADCIRC model. The study covers a comprehensive qualitative analysis on water level elevation and onshore inundation for West Bengal and Bangladesh regions. The estimated peak storm surge was about 4 m in the Sunderban region that propagated into all major riverine systems, inundating the river banks as well the inland areas. Numerical simulations indicate an average inland penetration distance of 350 m with a maximum of 600 m at various coastal locations in West Bengal and Bangladesh. The study emphasizes the need and importance of inundation modeling system required for emergency preparedness and disaster management.     

Smoothing of land use maps for trend and change detection in urbanization

Urban sprawl and its evolution over relatively short periods of time demands that we develop statistical tools to make best use of the routinely produced land use data from satellites. An efficient smoothing framework to estimate spatial patterns in binary raster maps derived from land use datasets is developed and presented in this paper. The framework is motivated by the need to model urbanization, specifically urban sprawl, and also its temporal evolution. We frame the problem as estimation of a probability of urbanization surface and use Bayesian P-splines as the tool of choice. Once such a probability map is produced, with associated uncertainty, we develop exploratory tools to identify regions of significant change across space and time. The proposal is used to study urbanisation and its development around the city of Bologna, Emilia Romagna, Italy, using land use data from the Cartography Archive of Emilia Romagna Region for the period 1976–2008.     

Efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for hierarchical hidden Markov models

Traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of hidden Markov models (HMMs) involves latent states underlying an imperfect observation process, and generates posterior samples for top-level parameters concurrently with nuisance latent variables. When potentially many HMMs are embedded within a hierarchical model, this can result in prohibitively long MCMC runtimes. We study combinations of existing methods, which are shown to vastly improve computational efficiency for these hierarchical models while maintaining the modeling flexibility provided by embedded HMMs. The methods include discrete filtering of the HMM likelihood to remove latent states, reduced data representations, and a novel procedure for dynamic block sampling of posterior dimensions. The first two methods have been used in isolation in existing application-specific software, but are not generally available for incorporation in arbitrary model structures. Using the NIMBLE package for R, we develop and test combined computational approaches using three examples from ecological capture–recapture, although our methods are generally applicable to any embedded discrete HMMs. These combinations provide several orders of magnitude improvement in MCMC sampling efficiency, defined as the rate of generating effectively independent posterior samples. In addition to being computationally significant for this class of hierarchical models, this result underscores the potential for vast improvements to MCMC sampling efficiency which can result from combinations of known algorithms.     

Use of non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) in presence of change-points to analyze drought periods: a case study in Brazil

Rain precipitation in the last years has been very atypical in different regions of the world, possibly, due to climate changes. We analyze Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) measures (1, 3, 6 and 12-month timescales) for a large city in Brazil: Campinas located in the southeast region of Brazil, São Paulo State, ranging from January 01, 1947 to May 01, 2011. A Bayesian analysis of non-homogeneous Poisson processes in presence or not of change-points is developed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in the data analysis. We consider a special class of models: the power law process. We also discuss some discrimination methods for the choice of the better model to be used for the rain precipitation data.     

Formal modelling of predator preferences using molecular gut-content analysis

The literature on modelling a predator’s prey selection describes many intuitive indices, few of which have both reasonable statistical justification and tractable asymptotic properties. Here, we provide a simple model that meets both of these criteria, while extending previous work to include an array of data from multiple species and time points. Further, we apply the expectation–maximisation algorithm to compute estimates if exact counts of the number of prey species eaten in a particular time period are not observed. We conduct a simulation study to demonstrate the accuracy of our method, and illustrate the utility of the approach for field analysis of predation using a real data set, collected on wolf spiders using molecular gut-content analysis.     

导致上西里西亚工业区儿童血铅水平升高环境和社会经济因素研究

本文集中在横向分析近期波兰儿童铅暴露和铅暴露增加背后的社会经济因素。在上西里西亚工业区,铅是分布最广泛的有毒重金属之一。儿童血铅水平升高关系儿童幸福,不断引起严重关切。本研究涉及在1999 - 2013年间,上西里西亚地区3岁到18岁的4 882名儿童。记录了每一个孩子血液中铅的浓度。孩子的父母被要求回答关于儿童接触铅的环境和家庭社会经济条件的问卷调查。铅暴露增加的因素包括：父母受教育程度较低,父母失业、父母的职业铅暴,家庭的贫穷社会经济地位,在家吸烟,生活在建筑物底层,食用本地种植的蔬菜和水果,在污染环境中长期进行户外活动和男性性别。铅的环境暴露仍然是导致上西里西亚地区儿童慢性铅中毒的主要因素。与儿童血铅浓度关系最大的社会经济因素是儿童父母的低教育水平。
精选自Wojciech Pelc, Natalia Pawlas, Micha? Dobrakowski, S?awomir Kasperczyk. Environmental and socioeconomic factors contributing to elevated blood lead levels in children from industrial area of Upper Silesia. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 35, Issue 10, pages 2597–2603, October 2016. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3429
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3429/full
     

Protective effect of Tamarindus indica fruit pulp extract on collagen content and oxidative stress induced by sodium fluoride in the liver and kidney of rats

Fluorosis is a serious public health problem in many parts of the world. The generation of reactive oxygen species and lipid peroxidation has been considered to play an important role in the pathogenesis of chronic fluoride toxicity. The present study was undertaken to evaluate the protective effect of Tamarindus indica fruit pulp extract on the collagen content and oxidative stress in liver and kidney of fluoride-exposed rats. The first group served as control. The second group received 200 mg L^?1 of sodium fluoride through drinking water. The third and fourth groups received T. indica fruit pulp extract (200 mg kg^?1 body weight) alone and along with fluorinated drinking water respectively, daily by gavage for a period of 90 days. At the end of the experiment, blood samples were collected from all groups, and liver and kidney samples were taken concurrently. Levels of malondialdehyde and glutathione and the activities of superoxide dismutase and catalase were evaluated in the liver and kidney of experimental rats. Furthermore, level of hydroxyproline and histological examination of liver and kidney along with serum biochemical parameters were evaluated. In conclusion, fluoride was determined to cause adverse effects in rats, and the supplementation of tamarind to these animals alleviated the adverse effects of fluoride.     

Contrasting population structures in two sympatric fishes in the Baltic Sea basin

Detailed multispecies studies on the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation in marine environments are still rare. Using mitochondrial and nuclear genetic markers, we compared genetic variability and population structuring of threespine (Gasterosteus aculeatus) and ninespine (Pungitius pungitius) sticklebacks from the same eleven marine and six freshwater locations within the Baltic Sea basin. Analyses of both marker types revealed a significantly lower degree of genetic structuring in both marine and freshwater populations of threespine than those ninespine sticklebacks. Isolation-by-distance (IBD) was detected across the marine populations in both species, suggesting spatially limited gene flow. However, the levels of genetic diversity and differentiation across the localities were uncorrelated between the two species in both marine and freshwater environments. Accordingly, estimates of effective population sizes were larger and migration rates were higher for three- than for ninespine sticklebacks. Hence, ninespine stickleback populations from the Baltic Sea basin appear to be subject to stronger genetic drift than sympatric threespine sticklebacks, and the proximate reason for this difference is likely to be found from autecological differences between the two species. In accordance with the earlier studies, genetic variability was higher and the degree of genetic differentiation was lower in marine than in freshwater populations in both species.