A gravid lizard from the Cretaceous of China and the early history of squamate viviparity

Although viviparity is most often associated with mammals, roughly one fifth of extant squamate reptiles give birth to live young. Phylogenetic analyses indicate that the trait evolved more than 100 times within Squamata, a frequency greater than that of all other vertebrate clades combined. However, there is debate as to the antiquity of the trait and, until now, the only direct fossil evidence of squamate viviparity was in Late Cretaceous mosasauroids, specialised marine lizards without modern equivalents. Here, we document viviparity in a specimen of a more generalised lizard, Yabeinosaurus, from the Early Cretaceous of China. The gravid female contains more than 15 young at a level of skeletal development corresponding to that of late embryos of living viviparous lizards. This specimen documents the first occurrence of viviparity in a fossil reptile that was largely terrestrial in life, and extends the temporal distribution of the trait in squamates by at least 30 Ma. As Yabeinosaurus occupies a relatively basal position within crown-group squamates, it suggests that the anatomical and physiological preconditions for viviparity arose early within Squamata.     

A new heuristic for capturing the complexity of multimodal signals

Many animal signals are inherently multimodal, engaging more than one of the receiver’s sensory systems simultaneously, and it is the interaction between the two modalities that determines the signal’s function (s) and efficacy. It is hence necessary to quantify the effect of each modality relative to the other in order to fully understand animal communication. We have developed a new heuristic to aid in the identification and interpretation of the many distinct ways in which signals in multiple sensory modalities interact. Our approach represents natural variation in signal production for each modality and uses these to generate three-dimensional receiver response surface plots that map the relationships among the signal components and receiver behavior. We accommodate the extant hypotheses for the interactions between modalities, each of which makes a clear prediction about the shape of the response surface, and extend previous theory by considering new phenomena.     

Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100

Flood risk to the economy, society and the environment reflects the cumulative effects of environmental and socio-economic change over decades. Long-term scenarios are therefore required in order to develop robust and sustainable flood risk management policies. Quantified national-scale flood risk analysis and expert appraisal of the mechanisms causing change in flood risk have been used to assess flood risk in England and Wales over the period 2030–2100. The assessment involved the use of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed—up to 20-fold increase in economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable to a combination of climate change (in particular increasing precipitation and relative sea level rise in parts of the UK) and increasing socio-economic vulnerability, particularly in terms of household/industrial contents and infrastructure vulnerability. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

The importance of space, time, and stochasticity to the demography and management of Alliaria petiolata

As population modeling is increasingly called upon to guide policy and management, it is important that we understand not only the central tendencies of our study systems, but the consequences of their variation in space and time as well. The invasive plant Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) is actively managed in the United States and is the focus of a developing biological control program. Two weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Ceutorhynchus) that reduce fecundity (C. alliariae) and rosette survival plus fecundity (C. scrobicollis) are under consideration for release pending host specificity testing. We used a demographic modeling approach to (1) quantify variability in A. petiolata growth and vital rates and (2) assess the potential for single- or multiple-agent biocontrol to suppress growth of 12 A. petiolata populations in Illinois and Michigan studied over three plant generations. We used perturbation analyses and simulation models with stochastic environments to estimate stochastic growth rates (lambda(S)) and predict the probability of successful management using either a single biocontrol agent or two agent species together. Not all populations exhibited invasive dynamics. Estimates of lambda(S) ranged from 0.78 to 2.21 across sites, while annual, deterministic growth (lambda) varied up to sevenfold within individual sites. Given our knowledge of the biocontrol agents, this analysis suggests that C. scrobicollis alone may control A. petiolata at up to 63% of our study sites where lambda >1, with the combination of both agents predicted to succeed at 88% of sites. Across sites and years, the elasticity rankings were dependent on lambda. Reductions of rosette survival, fecundity, or germination of new seeds are predicted to cause the greatest reduction of lambda in growing populations. In declining populations, transitions affecting seed bank survival have the greatest effect on lambda. This contrasts with past analyses that varied parameters individually in an otherwise constant matrix, which may yield unrealistic predictions by decoupling natural parameter covariances. Overall, comparisons of stochastic and deterministic growth rates illustrate how analyses of individual populations or years could misguide management or fail to characterize complex traits such as invasiveness that emerge as attributes of populations rather than species.     

Trajectories of change in sagebrush steppe vegetation communities in relation to multiple wildfires

Repeated perturbations, both biotic and abiotic, can lead to fundamental changes in the nature of ecosystems, including changes in state. Sagebrush steppe communities provide important habitat for wildlife and grazing for livestock. Fire is an integral part of these systems, but there is concern that increased ignition frequencies and invasive species are fundamentally altering them. Despite these issues, the majority of studies of fire effects in systems dominated by Artemisia tridentata wyomingensis have focused on the effects of single burns. The Arid Lands Ecology Reserve (ALE), in south-central Washington (U.S.A.), was one of the largest contiguous areas of sagebrush steppe habitat in the state until large wildfires burned the majority of it in 2000 and 2007. We analyzed data from permanent vegetation transects established in 1996 and resampled in 2002 and 2009. Our objective was to describe how the fires, and subsequent postfire restoration efforts, affected communities' successional pathways. Plant communities differed in response to repeated fire and restoration; these differences could largely be ascribed to the functional traits of the dominant species. Low-elevation communities, previously dominated by obligate seeders, moved furthest from their initial composition and were dominated by weedy, early-successional species in 2009. Higher-elevation sites with resprouting shrubs, native bunchgrasses, and few invasive species were generally more resilient to the effects of repeated disturbances. Shrub cover has been almost entirely removed from ALE, although there was some recovery where communities were dominated by resprouters. Bromus tectorum dominance was reduced by herbicide application in areas where it was previously abundant, but it increased significantly in untreated areas. Several resprouting species, notably Phlox longifolia and Poa secunda, expanded remarkably following competitive release from shrub canopies and/or abundant B. tectorum. Our results suggest that community dynamics can be understood through a state and transition model with two axes (shrub/grass and native/invasive abundance), although such models also need to account for differences in plant functional traits and disturbance regimes. We use our results to develop a conceptual model that will be validated with further research.     

Bridging the gap between the field and the lab: Environmental goods, policy maker input, and consequentiality

This paper explores the criterion validity of stated preference methods through experimental referenda that capture key characteristics of a stated preference survey for a proposed environmental program. In particular, we investigate whether advisory referenda, where participant votes have either known or unknown weight in the policy decision, can elicit values comparable to that of a standard, incentive-compatible referendum. When participants regard their votes as consequential, our results suggest there is no elicitation bias with advisory referenda. For advisory referenda where participants view their votes as inconsequential, and for purely hypothetical referenda, we observe elicitation bias.     

Growth rate and hatching date in ostrich chicks reflect humoral but not cell-mediated immune function

A tradeoff between immune response and life history traits, in particular growth rate, has been documented in various bird species. Ostriches are fast-growing birds and a typical feature of cohorts is that offspring often differ greatly in size. We investigated the relationship between hatching date and growth rate of chicks and both cell-mediated (measured using a phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) injection) and humoral immune responses in ostrich chicks maintained on a research farm. Chicks with higher growth rates had intermediate responses to both diphtheria and tetanus toxoids. By contrast, no relation between growth rates and responses to PHA injection were found. We conclude that chick growth rate variation may be explained beyond a certain threshold by a tradeoff between the humoral response and growth. Both responses to PHA injection and humoral responses in chicks were found to decrease with chick hatching date. Within the context of ostrich farming, these results could partially explain size variations observed in cohorts of chicks, as well as high mortality rates during their first 3 months of age.     

Are energy efficiency standards justified?

This paper develops an analytical framework for comparing the welfare effects of energy efficiency standards and pricing policies for reducing gasoline, electricity, and nationwide carbon emissions. The model is parameterized with US data and includes key externalities in the energy/transportation sectors and possible underinvestment in energy efficiency due to “misperceptions” over energy savings. Even with large misperceptions, the extra welfare gains from complementing efficient pricing policies with energy efficiency standards are zero for reducing gasoline and 5 percent for reducing electricity. And when viewed as substitutes, these standards forgo 60 percent or more of the potential welfare gains from corresponding pricing policies. A combination of energy efficiency and emissions standards is more than three times as costly as carbon pricing when there is no misperception over energy savings, and even with large misperceptions, combining carbon pricing with gasoline/electricity taxes is better than combining it with energy efficiency standards.