Valuing deaths or years of life lost? Economic benefits of avoided mortality from early heat warning systems

The study aims to explore the main drivers influencing the economic appraisal of heat warning systems by integrating epidemiological modelling and benefit-cost analysis. To shed insights on heat wave mortality valuation, we consider three valuation schemes: (i) a traditional one, where the value of a statistical life (VSL) is applied to both displaced and premature mortality; (ii) an intermediate one, with VSL applied for premature mortality and value of a life year (VOLY) for displaced mortality; and (iii) a conservative one, where both premature and displaced mortality are quantified in terms of loss of life expectancy, and then valued using the VOLY approach. When applying these three schemes to Madrid (Spain), we obtain a benefit-cost ratio varying from 12 to 3700. We find that the choice of the valuation scheme has the largest influence, whereas other parameters such as attributable risk, displaced mortality ratio, or the comprehensiveness and effectiveness of the heat warning system are less influential. The results raise the question of which is the most appropriate approach to value mortality in the context of heat waves, given that the lower bound estimate for the benefit-cost ratio (option iii using VOLY) is up to two orders of magnitude lower than the value based on the traditional VSL approach (option i). The choice of the valuation methodology has significant implications for public health authorities at the local and regional scale, which becomes highly relevant for locations where the application of the VOLY approach could lead to benefit-cost ratios significantly lower than 1. We propose that specific metrics for premature and displaced VOLYs should be developed for the context of heat waves. Until such values are available, we suggest testing the economic viability of heat warning systems under the three proposed valuation schemes (i–iii) and using values for VOLY commonly applied in air pollution as the health end points are similar. Lastly, periodical reassessment of heat alert plans should be performed by public health authorities to monitor their long-term viability and cost-effectiveness.     

Disclosure of climate risk information by the world’s largest companies

The risks related to global climate change are seen as threats to companies, taking into consideration their impact on the return on investment. In order to mitigate climate risk and introduce new opportunities to financiers, companies need to identify, manage, and report climate risks. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the climate risks disclosed by the 100 largest companies in the world, according to the Bloomberg and Price Waterhouse Coopers (PwC 2015) classification, and identify some characteristics of these companies that explain the disclosure level of such information. Preliminary results revealed that of the companies investigated, 14% did not disclose any climate risk information in the Carbon Disclosure Program (CDP) report. Also, from the companies that disclosed information according to the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), 9.9% did not provide information regarding policies, actions, and strategies for mitigating the risks related to climate change. The results shown by the content analysis suggested that, in general, there is still a low level of disclosure about climate risks by these companies. The final results through econometric instruments and statistical tests indicate that the size of the company or the fact that corporations are from developed countries do not necessarily explain the level of information disclosed. However, the activity sector, the continent, and the efficiency of the Board of Directors are factors that strongly explain the level of climate risk disclosure. We conclude that more effort is needed to encourage an engaging attitude from corporations to develop actions, policies, and strategies to mitigate climate change risks and threats. In addition, the world’s largest companies should make a greater investment in climate risk disclosure.     

Microbial degradation of usnic acid in the reindeer rumen

Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) eat and utilize lichens as an important source of energy and nutrients in winter. Lichens synthesize and accumulate a wide variety of phenolic secondary compounds, such as usnic acid, as a defense against herbivores and to protect against damage by UV-light in solar radiation. We have examined where and to what extent these phenolic compounds are degraded in the digestive tract of the reindeer, with particular focus on usnic acid. Three male reindeer were given ad libitum access to a control diet containing no usnic acid for three weeks and then fed lichens ad libitum (primarily Cladonia stellaris) containing 9.1 mg/g DM usnic acid for 4 weeks. Usnic acid intake in reindeer on the lichen diet was 91–117 mg/kg BM/day. In spite of this, no trace of usnic acid or conjugates of usnic acid was found either in fresh rumen fluid, urine, or feces. This suggests that usnic acid is rapidly degraded by rumen microbes, and that it consequently is not absorbed by the animal. This apparent ability to detoxify lichen phenolic compounds may gain increased importance with future enhanced UV-B radiation expected to cause increased protective usnic acid/phenol production in lichens.     

A multidisciplinary study of archaeological grape seeds

We report here the first integrated investigation of both ancient DNA and proteins in archaeobotanical samples: medieval grape (Vitis vinifera L.) seeds, preserved by anoxic waterlogging, from an early medieval (seventh–eighth century A.D.) Byzantine rural settlement in the Salento area (Lecce, Italy) and a late (fourteenth–fifteenth century A.D.) medieval site in York (England). Pyrolysis gas chromatography mass spectrometry documented good carbohydrate preservation, whilst amino acid analysis revealed approximately 90% loss of the original protein content. In the York sample, mass spectrometry-based sequencing identified several degraded ancient peptides. Nuclear microsatellite locus (VVS2, VVMD5, VVMD7, ZAG62 and ZAG79) analysis permitted a tentative comparison of the genetic profiles of both the ancient samples with the modern varieties. The ability to recover microsatellite DNA has potential to improve biomolecular analysis on ancient grape seeds from archaeological contexts. Although the investigation of five microsatellite loci cannot assign the ancient samples to any geographic region or modern cultivar, the results allow speculation that the material from York was not grown locally, whilst the remains from Supersano could represent a trace of contacts with the eastern Mediterranean.     

Global and regional potential for bioenergy from agricultural and forestry residue biomass

As co-products, agricultural and forestry residues represent a potential low cost, low carbon, source for bioenergy. A method is developed for estimating the maximum sustainable amount of energy potentially available from agricultural and forestry residues by converting crop production statistics into associated residue, while allocating some of this resource to remain on the field to mitigate erosion and maintain soil nutrients. Currently, we estimate that the world produces residue biomass that could be sustainably harvested and converted into nearly 50 EJ yr⁻¹ of energy. The top three countries where this resource is estimated to be most abundant are currently net energy importers: China, the United States (US), and India. The global potential from residue biomass is estimated to increase to approximately 50–100 EJ yr⁻¹ by mid- to late- century, depending on physical assumptions such as of future crop yields and the amount of residue sustainably harvestable. The future market for biomass residues was simulated using the Object-Oriented Energy, Climate, and Technology Systems Mini Climate Assessment Model (O^bjECTS MiniCAM). Utilization of residue biomass as an energy source is projected for the next century under different climate policy scenarios. Total global use of residue biomass is estimated to be 20–100 EJ yr⁻¹ by mid- to late- century, depending on the presence of a climate policy and the economics of harvesting, aggregating, and transporting residue. Much of this potential is in developing regions of the world, including China, Latin America, Southeast Asia, and India.     

Assessing risk and adaptation options to fires and windstorms in European forestry

Risks can generally be described as the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Using this framework, we evaluated the historical and future development of risk of fire and wind damage in European forestry at the national level. Fire risk is expected to increase, mainly as a consequence of an increase in fire hazard, defined as the Fire Weather Index in summer. Exposure, defined as forest area, is expected to increase slightly as a consequence of active afforestation and abandonment of marginal agricultural areas. Adaptation options to fire risk should therefore aim to decrease the vulnerability, where a change in tree species from conifers to broadleaves had most effect. Risk for wind damage in forests is expected to increase mainly as a consequence of increase in exposure (total growing stock) and vulnerability (defined by age class and tree species distribution). Projections of future wind climate indicate an increase in hazard (storminess) mainly over Western Europe. Adaptation options should aim to limit the increase in exposure and vulnerability. Only an increase in harvest level can stop the current build-up of growing stock, while at the same time it will lower vulnerability through the reduction of the share of old and vulnerable stands. Changing species from conifers to broadleaves helps to reduce vulnerability as well. Lowering vulnerability by decreasing the rotation length is only effective in combination with a high demand for wood. Due to data limitations, no forecast of future fire area or damaged timber amount by storms was possible.