PROBABILISTIC GREAT LAKES HYDROLOGY OUTLOOKS1

ABSTRACT: The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory developed a semiautomatic software package for making hydrological outlooks for the Great Lakes. These include basin moisture storages, basin runoff, lake heat storage, lake evaporation, heat fluxes, and net lake supplies, one or more full months into the future. The package combines GLERL's rainfall-runoff and lake evaporation models with near real-time data reduction techniques to represent current system states. Users select historical meteorologic record segments as candidate future scenarios to generate deterministic near real-time hydrological outlooks. GLERL has extended the package to make probabilistic outlooks for a decision-maker who must estimate the risk associated with his decisions. GLERL matches National Weather Service meteorologic outlook probabilities by selecting groups of historical meteorologic sequences, and constructs embedded outlook intervals for each hydrologic variable of interest. Interval probabilities are assigned from comparisons over a recent evaluation period. This physically-based approach for generating outlooks offers the ability, as compared to other statistically-based approaches, to incorporate improvements in the understanding, of process dynamics as they occur in the future and to respond reasonably to conditions initial to a forecast (such as heat and moisture storages), not observed in the past.     

REGIONAL WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT GREAT MIAMI RIVER,OHIO1

The Miami Conservancy District was organized shortly after the disastrous flood of March 1913 to provide flood protection to municipalities along the Great Miami River. The District system is a classic solution which was entirely locally financed and is now operated and maintained by special benefit assessments on 45,000 parcels of property, 9 cities and 5 counties.     

Biodegradation of Slow-Release Fertilizers (Methyleneureas) in Soil

The biodegradation of urea and condensation products thereof (ureaforms or methyleneureas), their nitrification, and their influence on the respiratory rate of soil was studied over periods of up to 100 days. The total methyleneurea content of the soil was determined after its acidic extraction, using a convenient colorimetric assay, and an HPLC protocol was established to analyze for specific components of methyleneureas. Urea, unfractionated methyleneureas, and hot-water soluble methyleneureas were rapidly metabolized to ammonium, which accumulated to high concentrations and was consequently oxidized to nitrate; an accumulation of nitrite was observed during urea but not during methyleneurea degradation. Hot water-insoluble methyleneureas were degraded much more slowly, and ammonium formed from these compounds was oxidized to nitrate without being released in significant amounts. These results suggest that the use of methyleneureas of optimized composition with regard to their water solubility may help to resolve problems such as the toxicity of ammonia to plant growth as well as nitrogen loss by leaching of nitrate, denitrification and volatilization.     

WalkSafe: a school-based pedestrian safety intervention program

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of the WalkSafe program, an elementary school-based pedestrian safety program in a single high-risk district in Miami-Dade County. METHODS: Sixteen elementary schools were identified in a single high-risk district and enrolled in a one-year study. All schools implemented the WalkSafe program on the last week of January 2003. A pre, post, and three-month post testing of pedestrian safety knowledge was conducted. An observational component was also implemented at four schools that were randomly chosen. Engineering recommendations and law enforcement initiatives were also performed. RESULTS: A total of 6467 children from K-5th grade from 16 elementary schools participated in the program. Of these 5762 tests were collected over three different testing times. A significant difference (p-value < 0.001) was found between the pre and post testing conditions across all grade levels. There was no significant difference found between the post and three-month post testing conditions across all grade levels (p-value > 0.05). The observational data collected at four schools across the different testing times demonstrated a significant difference found between pre and post testing conditions for Group A (stop at the curb and look left, right, left) and also for Group B (midstreet crossing and darting out) (p-value < 0.05). There was no difference found between comparing the pre-test or post-test condition with the three-month post-test time. There were many environmental modifications that were recommended and actually performed. CONCLUSION: The WalkSafe program implemented in a single high-risk district was shown to improve the pedestrian safety knowledge of elementary school children. The observational data demonstrated improved crossing behaviors from pre-test to post-testing conditions. Future research will focus on sustaining the program in this district and expanding the program throughout our county.     

Assessment of sampling and chemical analysis of source-separated organic household waste

The quality of the waste sampling procedure and chemical analysis was evaluated in a research program on characterization of organic waste obtained after disc screening of source-separated organic household waste. The sampling procedures focused on a truckload of waste and involved several steps of subsampling including shredding, mixing, blending, high-speed-blending, drying and milling prior to analysis of the organic waste with respect to ash content, crude fibers, crude fat, crude protein, sugar, starch, enzyme-digestible organic matter, P, N, C, H, S and calorific value. The statistical evaluation of the procedures involved 10 samples of the same truckload of waste obtained by splitting the sample at each level in the procedure according to a staggered, incomplete nested statistical design. Furthermore, one sample was analysed six times over a period of approximately one year. The statistical evaluation showed that no single step in the sampling procedure contributed with excessive variance and that the variance caused by the sampling procedure was approximately the same as the variance in the chemical analysis observed over a year. The variance varied with the analytical parameter but for most parameters the uncertainty was satisfactorily low (of the order of 3-10% expressed as the relative standard deviation, which is considered to be satisfactory for waste characterization).     

Hybrid poplar and forest soil response to municipal and industrial by-products: a greenhouse study

Little research has been conducted in the Lake States (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan) to evaluate the effects of municipal and industrial by-product applications on the early growth of short rotation woody crops such as hybrid poplar. Anticipated shortages of harvestable-age aspen in the next decade can be alleviated and rural development can be enhanced through the application of by-products to forest soils. This study was conducted to evaluate the effects of inorganic fertilizer, boiler ash, biosolids, and the co-application of ash and biosolids application on tree growth and soil properties by measuring hybrid poplar clone NM-6 (Populus nigra L. x P. maximowiczii A. Henry) yield, nutrient uptake, and select post-harvest soil properties after 15 wk of greenhouse growth. Treatments included a control of no amendment; agricultural lime; inorganic N, P, and K; three types of boiler ash; biosolids application rates equivalent to 70, 140, 210, and 280 kg available N ha(-1); and boiler ash co-applied with biosolids. All of the by-products treatments showed biomass production that was equal to or greater than inorganic fertilizer and lime treatments. A trend of increased biomass with increasing rates of biosolids was observed. Soil P concentration increased with increasing rates of biosolids application. None of the by-products treatments resulted in plant tissue metal concentrations greater than metal concentrations of plant tissue amended with inorganic amendments. Biosolids, boiler ash, and the co-application of biosolids and boiler ash together on forest soils were as beneficial to plant growth as inorganic fertilizers.     

Lead reduction and redistribution in the forest floor in New Hampshire northern hardwoods

Because of the affinity of organic matter for lead, atmospheric loadings of this pollutant have been strongly retained in the forest floor. With the regulation of Pb emissions, loadings have decreased. We measured changes in Pb in forest floor horizons at a variety of northern hardwood sites in New Hampshire from the late 1970s to the 1990s. In all seven of the sites in which horizons were distinguished within the forest floor, Pb was found to be declining in the upper (Oie) horizon, but not in the underlying Oa and A horizons. At the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), this loss from the Oie resulted in a 36% loss of Pb from the forest floor as a whole between 1976 and 1997 (p < 0.001). In contrast, in six stands in the Bartlett Experimental Forest (BEF), losses of Pb averaging >50% from the Oi and Oe horizons (p = 0.01) between 1979 and 1994 were compensated by gains in the Oa and A horizons. Similarly, at seven additional stands in the White Mountain National Forest, changes in the forest floor as a whole from 1980 to 1995 were not statistically significant (redistribution within the forest floor was not evaluated at these sites). Lead concentrations were highest in the Oe or Oie in the 1970s, but were highest in the Oa horizon in the 1990s. There was no significant pattern of Pb loss or retention as a function of stand age across all the sites.     

Current issues and uncertainties in the measurement and modelling of air-vegetation exchange and within-plant processing of POPs

Air-vegetation exchange of POPs is an important process controlling the entry of POPs into terrestrial food chains, and may also have a significant effect on the global movement of these compounds. Many factors affect the air-vegetation transfer including: the physicochemical properties of the compounds of interest; environmental factors such as temperature, wind speed, humidity and light conditions; and plant characteristics such as functional type, leaf surface area, cuticular structure, and leaf longevity. The purpose of this review is to quantify the effects these differences might have on air/plant exchange of POPs, and to point out the major gaps in the knowledge of this subject that require further research. Uptake mechanisms are complicated, with the role of each factor in controlling partitioning, fate and behaviour process still not fully understood. Consequently, current models of air-vegetation exchange do not incorporate variability in these factors, with the exception of temperature. These models instead rely on using average values for a number of environmental factors (e.g. plant lipid content, surface area), ignoring the large variations in these values. The available models suggest that boundary layer conductance is of key importance in the uptake of POPs, although large uncertainties in the cuticular pathway prevents confirmation of this with any degree of certainty, and experimental data seems to show plant-side resistance to be important. Models are usually based on the assumption that POP uptake occurs through the lipophilic cuticle which covers aerial surfaces of plants. However, some authors have recently attached greater importance to the stomatal route of entry into the leaf for gas phase compounds. There is a need for greater mechanistic understanding of air-plant exchange and the 'scaling' of factors affecting it. The review also suggests a number of key variables that researchers should measure in their experiments to allow comparisons to be made between studies in order to improve our understanding of what causes any differences in measured data between sites.     

Destruction of Wetlands and Waterbird Populations by Dams and Irrigation on the Murrumbidgee River in Arid Australia

The Lowbidgee floodplain is the Murrumbidgee Rivers major wetland in southeastern Australia. From more than 300,000 ha in the early 1900s, at least 76.5% was destroyed (58%) or degraded (18%) by dams (26 major storages), subsequent diversions and floodplain development. Diversions of about 2,144,000 ML year^–1 from the Murrumbidgee River come from a natural median flow of about 3,380,000 ML year^–1 providing water for Australias capital, hydroelectricity, and 273,000 ha of irrigation. Diversions have reduced the amount of water reaching the Lowbidgee floodplain by at least 60%, from 1888 to 1998. About 97,000 ha of Lowbidgee wetland was destroyed by development of the floodplain for an irrigation area (1975–1998), including building of 394 km of channels and 2,145 km of levee banks. Over 19 years (1983–2001), waterbird numbers estimated during annual aerial surveys collapsed by 90%, from an average of 139,939 (1983–1986) to 14,170 (1998–2001). Similar declines occurred across all functional groups: piscivores (82%), herbivores (87%), ducks and small grebe species (90%), large wading birds (91%), and small wading birds (95%), indicating a similar decline in the aquatic biota that formed their food base. Numbers of species also declined significantly by 21%. The Lowbidgee floodplain is an example of the ecological consequences of water resource development. Yanga Nature Reserve, within the Lowbidgee floodplain, conserved for its floodplain vegetation communities, will lose these communities because of insufficient water. Until conservation policies adequately protect river flows to important wetland areas, examples such as the Lowbidgee will continue to occur around the world.